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Subject: G11) What is my chance of being struck
by a tropical storm or hurricane?
Contributed by Chris Landsea
The figure here shows for any particular location what the
chance is that a tropical storm or hurricane will affect the area
sometime during the whole June to November hurricane season. We
utilized the years 1944 to 1999 in the analysis and counted hits
when a storm or hurricane was within about 100 miles (165 km).
This figure is created by Todd Kimberlain.
For example, people living in New Orleans, Louisiana have about a 40%
chance (the green-orange color) per year of experiencing a
strike by a tropical storm or hurricane. For the U.S., the
locations that have the highest chances are the following:
Miami, Florida - 48% chance; Cape Hatteras, North Carolina - 48%
chance; and San Juan, Puerto Rico - 42% chance.
For any particular location the chance that a hurricane will
directly affect the area sometime during the whole June to
November hurricane season is shown here.
We utilized the years 1944 to 1999 in the analysis and
counted hits when a hurricane was within about 60 miles (110 km).
This figure is created by Todd Kimberlain. (For example, the
chance for Miami, Florida is about 16%.)
For any particular location what the chance is that a major
hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5) will directly affect the area
sometime during the whole June to November hurricane season is shown
here. We utilized the years 1944 to
1999 in the analysis and counted hits when a hurricane was
within about 30 miles (50 km). This figure is created by Todd
Kimberlain. (For example, the chance for Miami, Florida is about
4%.)
Many folks are are concerned about the possible impacts that
a hurricane could have on their vacation. If so, please
check with your hotel, cruise company, etc. to find out how they
inform their guests when a hurricane is coming, what actions they
plan and what refund policies they have (if any). Keep in mind
that a direct hit by a major hurricane is an extremely rare event
and if I had a chance - for example - to go on a cruise in the
Caribbean Sea during hurricane season, I would go without hesitation.
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