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September, 1988, Vol. 111, No. 9

An evaluation of BLS projections
of the 1985 economy

John Tschetter

The Bureau of Labor Statistics regularly prepares projections of the growth of gross national product (GNP) and industrial output and employment for the U.S. economy. These projections are a framework for the Bureau's occupational projections program. They also serve as a framework for analysis of other issues. This article evaluates BLS projections for 1985,¹ and is the final step in the projections program at the Bureau.² This final evaluation is an important process. Without it we cannot quantify the limits of our projected data but can only describe them in general terms.

The Bureau has published projections of the 1985 economy on three separate occasions: 1973, 1976, and 1978. As seen in the following tabulation, the 1973 and 1976 projections underestimated the level of 1985 total employment. In contrast, the 1978 projections overestimated employment.

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Footnote

1 The initial projections of the 1985 economy were described in "Projections of GNP, income, output, and employment," Monthly Labor Review, December 1973, pp.27-42; and in detail in the The Structure of the U.S. Economy in 1980 and 1985, Bulletin 1831 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1975). The second projections of the 1985 economy were described in Ronald E. Kutscher, "Revised projections of the U.S. economy to 1980: an overview," Monthly Labor Review, March 1976, pp. 3-8; Charles T. Bowman and Terry H. Morlan, "Revised projections of the U.S. economy to 1980 and 1985," Monthly Labor Review, March 1976, pp. 9-21; and Thomas J. Mooney and John H. Tschetter "Revised projections to 1985," Monthly Labor Review, November 1976, pp. 3-9. the third projections were published in Norman C. Saunders, "The U.S. economy to 1990: two projections for growth," Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 36-46; Valerie A. Personick, "Industry output and employment: BLS projections to 1990, Monthly Labor Review, April 1979, pp. 3-14; and Arthur Andreassen, "Changing patterns of demand: BLS projections to 1990," Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 47-55.

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