000 WTUS82 KMLB 190114 HLSMLB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 914 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 ...TROPICAL STORM FAY STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING INLAND COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OKEECHOBEE ...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY MARINERS IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL WATER AREAS...FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ADJACENT MARINE ZONES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH OF ORLANDO FLORIDA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY....AND MOVE INLAND ON A NORTHERLY COURSE THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH. WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND FAY IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-200115- /O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA- NORTHERN BREVARD- 914 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...NEW INFORMATION... A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL COUNTIES...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...BREVARD... AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. LOCAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD QUICKLY FINIALIZE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A LOW IMPACT FROM DAMAGING WIND. THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES...PORCHES...CARPORTS... AWNINGS...POOL ENCLOSURES...WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...BUT SHALLOW ROOTED AND DISEASED TREES MAY ALSO BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS CAN BE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...FORCING CLOSURES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME...MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER TEMPORARILY RELOCATING TO A MORE SECURE BUILDING OR NEAREST SHELTER. BE SURE TO LET FRIENDS AND FAMILY KNOW OF YOUR WHEREABOUTS AND INTENTIONS FOR SURVIVING THE STORM. ALSO...KEEP CELL PHONES WELL CHARGED BEFORE THE STORM. ...WINDS... MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER...ISOLATED GUSTS TO 73 MPH MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE CENTER TRACK OF FAY...AND JUST TO ITS RIGHT. STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE COMMON WITHIN RAINBANDS... WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE ALONG THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE IN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEY WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...AND SOUTH BREVARD BY SUNRISE. THEN... THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO ORANGE COUNTY...SOUTH LAKE COUNTY...SEMINOLE COUNTY...AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTY DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN INTO NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS AN ELEVATED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FOR THE LOCAL AREA FROM HIGH WINDS...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 58 TO 73 MPH IN SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS. PEOPLE SHOULD SMARTLY PREPARE FOR THESE WIND SPEEDS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THERE IS A 60 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH DIRECTION. THIS REPRESENTS AN INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY TREND. THE CITIES OF COCOA BEACH AND FORT PIERCE HAVE ABOUT A 65 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS IS 5 PERCENT OR LESS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... WHEN CONSIDERING THE LATEST FORECAST AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES... THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY NEAR THE COAST AND ALONG THE LOCAL BARRIER ISLANDS...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE WATERS TO REACH LEVELS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. EFFECTS WILL BE GREATEST DURING TIMES OF PEAK ONSHORE WINDS COINCIDENT WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY IMPACT FROM COASTAL FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION WITH HEAVY SURF. THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY, AND CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS RAIN BANDS CONTAINING TORRENTIAL TROPICAL DOWNPOURS SPREAD NORTH ...WITH MULTIPLE BANDS MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. BY MORNING...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE ACROSS MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES ...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST. FARTHER NORTH TO AROUND ORLANDO AND COCOA BEACH...BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES IS FORECAST...AND 1 INCH OR LESS WILL BE COMMON TO THE NORTH ACROSS LAKE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THEN...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TUESDAY WILL INCREASE RAINFALL TOTALS AREAWIDE. ...TORNADOES... AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES NORTH TOWARD A SOUTH FLORIDA LANDFALL TUESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF FAY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED AREA FOR TORNADIC STORMS TO FORM. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS...AND THESE TORNADIC STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASING TORNADIC THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AS WELL AS THE TREASURE COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DAMAGE WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING UNIMPEDED INTO THESE AREAS. TORNADO WATCHES CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SINCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC STORMS WILL BEGIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT YOU MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS SET TO WORK PROPERLY...WITH FRESH BATTERIES INSTALLED IN THE EVENT OF A POWER OUTAGE. THE TORNADIC THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...UNTIL THE CENTER OF FAY HAS PASSED NORTH OF THE AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. $$ AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-200115- /O.CON.KMLB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- 914 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ADJACENT MARINE ZONES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY MARINERS IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL WATER AREAS...FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LOCAL MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A HIGH IMPACT...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO INTENSE WINDS AND VERY HIGH COMBINED SEAS. BAY AND INLAND WATERS MAY BECOME VERY ROUGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR OR REMAIN IN PORT. AT BEAUFORT SCALE 8...HIGH WAVES OF GREATER LENGTH FORM. AT BEAUFORT SCALE 9...VERY HIGH WAVES BUILD WITH THE VISIBILITY BECOMING AFFECTED BY BLOWING FOAM AND SPRAY. SMALL SHIPS MAY BE LOST TO VIEW BEHIND WAVES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOYS...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS... REPORT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FEET THIS EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS TROPICAL STORM FAY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AFTER MIDNIGHT OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST OF MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. THESE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TUESDAY ACROSS THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RAINBANDS ROTATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 FEET TONIGHT OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST... THEN REACH 8 TO 10 FEET ACROSS ALL THE WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS TROPICAL STORM FAY EXITS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. ...TORNADOES... AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES NORTH TOWARD A SOUTH FLORIDA LANDFALL TUESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF FAY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED AREA FOR TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS TO FORM. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS...AND THESE TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASING THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE TREASURE COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS TO FLAGLER BEACH TUESDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC TYPE DAMAGE TO PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS..WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING UNIMPEDED INTO THESE AREAS. THE TORNADIC WATERSPOUT THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...UNTIL THE CENTER OF FAY HAS PASSED NORTH OF THE AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. $$ FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144-200115- /O.CON.KMLB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0800Z/ INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE- SOUTHERN LAKE- 914 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 ...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION... A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING INLAND COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OKEECHOBEE ...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE. THIS ALSO INCLUDES INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. LOCAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD QUICKLY FINIALIZE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A LOW IMPACT FROM DAMAGING WIND. THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES...PORCHES...CARPORTS... AWNINGS...POOL ENCLOSURES...WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...BUT SHALLOW ROOTED AND DISEASED TREES MAY ALSO BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS CAN BE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...FORCING CLOSURES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME...MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER TEMPORARILY RELOCATING TO A MORE SECURE BUILDING OR NEAREST SHELTER. BE SURE TO LET FRIENDS AND FAMILY KNOW OF YOUR WHEREABOUTS AND INTENTIONS FOR SURVIVING THE STORM. ALSO...KEEP CELL PHONES WELL CHARGED BEFORE THE STORM. ...WINDS... MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH. HOWEVER...ISOLATED GUSTS TO 73 MPH MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE CENTER TRACK OF FAY...AND JUST TO ITS RIGHT. STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE COMMON WITHIN RAINBANDS... WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE ALONG THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE IN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEY WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...AND SOUTH BREVARD BY SUNRISE. THEN... THEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO ORANGE COUNTY...SOUTH LAKE COUNTY...SEMINOLE COUNTY...AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTY DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN INTO NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS AN ELEVATED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FOR THE LOCAL AREA FROM HIGH WINDS...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 58 TO 73 MPH IN SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS. PEOPLE SHOULD SMARTLY PREPARE FOR THESE WIND SPEEDS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THERE IS A 60 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD INLAND COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH DIRECTION. THIS REPRESENTS AN INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY TREND. THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE FOR OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...GRADUALLY DECREASING NORTHWARD. THE CITY OF ORLANDO HAS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS IS 5 PERCENT OR LESS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE LAKE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE...RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT...WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE...SOUTH BAY AND CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND. ...INLAND FLOODING... A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS RAIN BANDS CONTAINING TORRENTIAL TROPICAL DOWNPOURS SPREAD NORTH ...WITH MULTIPLE BANDS MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. BY MORNING...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE ACROSS MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES ...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST. FARTHER NORTH TO AROUND ORLANDO AND COCOA BEACH...BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES IS FORECAST...AND 1 INCH OR LESS WILL BE COMMON TO THE NORTH ACROSS LAKE...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THEN...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TUESDAY WILL INCREASE RAINFALL TOTALS AREAWIDE. ...TORNADOES... AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES NORTH TOWARD A SOUTH FLORIDA LANDFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF FAY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED AREA FOR TORNADIC STORMS TO FORM. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS...AND THESE TORNADIC STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASING TORNADIC THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AS WELL AS THE TREASURE COAST BY THIS EVENING... AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DAMAGE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS BLOWING UNIMPEDED INTO THESE AREAS. TORNADO WATCHES CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING. SINCE THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT YOU MAKE SURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS SET TO WORK PROPERLY...WITH FRESH BATTERIES INSTALLED IN THE EVENT OF A POWER OUTAGE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.