000 WTUS82 KMLB 180037 HLSMLB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 837 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA. THIS STATEMENT ALSO PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INTERESTS IN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...ORANGE...SEMINOLE... BREVARD...LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FAY HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY AND SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. FLZ053-058-190045- /O.CON.KMLB.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/ OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE- 837 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 ...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... ...NEW INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY WHICH ADDS TO THE DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEFINED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR EVACUATION PLAN. PEOPLE LOCATED IN THE WATCH AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FREQUENTLY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS MEDIA...FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING SITUATION WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY. LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK (THAT IS...THE SKINNY BLACK LINE) AS THERE ARE STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WHICH MUST BE SMARTLY FACTORED IN FOR SAFETY PURPOSES. IN ALL CASES...HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH AS...BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...DRINKING WATER...CANNED GOODS OR DRIED FOOD... FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES. GAS UP YOUR VEHICLES AND HAVE SOME EXTRA FUEL ON HAND FOR GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS IF NEEDED. IT IS ALSO BEST TO HAVE SOME EXTRA CASH AS CREDIT CARDS MAY NOT BE AN OPTION IF ELECTRIC POWER GOES OUT. KEEP YOUR CELL PHONE WELL CHARGED BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD PROTECT WINDOWS AND DOORS AGAINST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS OR TIED DOWN. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER WHETHER TO TEMPORARILY EVACUATE TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE HIGH WIND AND TORNADO THREAT PASSES. BE READY TO LEAVE IF A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED...OR IF YOU ARE DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. ...WINDS... THE SPECIFIC FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS TO BE 3O TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY FOR OSCEOLA COUNTY. GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY FOR OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 57 MPH. LOCAL COMMUNITIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY IMPACT FROM DAMAGING WIND. THE LIKELIHOOD EXISTS FOR WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO CARPORTS...AWNINGS...AND POOL ENCLOSURES. SOME DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL BRANCHES MAY BREAK OFF TREES...AND LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS MAY BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...FORCING CLOSURES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT REALIZED BY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY. THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS IS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. ...INLAND FLOODING... ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY. ...TORNADOES... MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR TORNADOES AND TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. $$ AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-054-059-064-141-144-147- 190045- /O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD- INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE- NORTHERN BREVARD- 837 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 ...NEW INFORMATION... ALTHOUGH WATCHES HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA...RESIDENTS AND MARINERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF ANY NEARING HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY. ...AFFECTED AREAS... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INTERESTS IN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER...ORANGE...SEMINOLE... BREVARD... LAKE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN CASE ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NEEDED...THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH AS...BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS... DRINKING WATER...CANNED GOODS OR DRIED FOOD... FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES. ...WINDS... THE SPECIFIC FORECAST IS FOR WINDS AND GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING THE EVENT. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE GUSTS WITHIN RAINBANDS MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY...THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE LATEST ON MARINE WINDS AND SEAS. INTERESTS AT AREA PORTS...MARINAS...AND DOCKS SHOULD BE READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A 35 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY. THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS IS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND DIRECTION...LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME. FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE PASSING STORM. ...INLAND FLOODING... ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY. ...TORNADOES... MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY...THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV AND THEN CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA