August 30, 2004

Mexico: Summer Corn Crop Not Without Issues

Summary

Precipitation across Mexico has not been uniformly persistent during the 2004 monsoon (May-October); however, summer grain varieties have can turn moisture scarcity into a positive outcome by harvest. Soil moisture levels have also been up and down; however, there is time for southern corn fields to benefit should good conditions prevail. The annual monsoon traverses Mexicoin a southeast to northwest pattern, usually beginning in May, and retreats from northwest to southeast, ending in October. The monsoon is usually longest and most consistent across the southern half of Mexico.It continues north, complementing the expanded hours of daylight, and permitting producers to take full advantage of the fertile soils of the Central Plateau and the coastal Pacific regions. Deviation from this natural course of climatic events in some southern regions does not always result in a decline in total national production, as was demonstrated in 2003.On balance, progress has been acceptable for the current summer cycle, which accounts for as much as 90 percent of annual production. Mexican 2004/05 corn production is forecast at 20.3 million tons, down 0.700 million tons or 3 percent from last year's record crop of 21 million tons. Area is forecast at 7.65 million hectares down 0.020 million hectares or 1 percent from last year. Current USDA estimates of global crop production are available at PS&D Online.

Southwest Mexico    

A positive soil moisture situation for southwest Mexico during May and June 2004 raised hopes for a repeat of last summer’s record grain crop. As was the case in 2003, however, the soil moisture situation for individual localities was not clear-cut as the current summer season progressed. Important corn production areas such as those near the cities of Guanajuato and Guadalajara have experienced below-normal rainfall thus far in 2004, just as in 2003. But rainfall was sufficient (in the presence of relatively mild temperatures) to sustain slow vegetative growth that can result in huge yield, if moisture is available to support dry matter accumulation in the weeks following flowering. For corn fields planted in May, the post-flowering period began in July, with harvest of most fields to begin as early as September.

East of Mexico City    

Corn producers area east of the capital city are also hoping for a repeat of 2003 monsoon’s late-season showers. The cities of Tlaxcala in the state of Tlaxcala, and Puebla in the state of Puebla, have been short of moisture this summer, just as in 2003. Free air temperatures played a small role in limiting vegetative expansion. Irrespective of rainfall in September and October, Tlaxcala will be hard-pressed to attain a normal harvest total. Puebla's fields benefited from the start of small but regular showers from July into August. For those fields that survived the difficulties of the early season, there remains the possibility of at least normal production if the monsoon is generous. Harvest can begin as early as September.

South Pacific Coast

The 2004 monsoon has been surprising inconsistent along portions of Mexico’s south Pacific coast, the region first in and last out of the annual downpour. The expanded window of opportunity generally permits early or delayed planting as warranted, and varieties are usually those that have a longer development cycle than in the Central Plateau. Oaxaca and Tuxtla Gutierrez are experiencing contrasting conditions this season, although not so much with temperature trends. Fields around the city of Oaxacain the state of Oaxacahave received very little precipitation this summer, and few of them are likely to be resuscitated by a late-season monsoon outburst. In the neighboring state of Chiapas, fields around Tuxtla Gutierrez were similarly devoid of moisture into June, however regular if small showers since that time have placed the state back on track for no worse than normal production. Harvest can begin as early as October, but corn is sometimes left in the fields until after December.

Visit Crop Explorer to see more weather and crop information.

Previous PECAD Updates

July 11, 2003 Mexico: 2003 Monsoon Not Yet Panacea for Trend To Dryness

Related FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service) Links

August 20,2004 Mexico Announces Support Programs for Sinaloa White Corn
Annual FAS Attaché Grain and Feed Report for 2004/05
Semi-Annual FAS Attaché Dairy and Products Report for 2004/05
Annual Fas Attaché Poultry Report for 2004/05

For more information contact Ron White
 of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS at (202) 690-0137.