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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
August 17, 2004
Conditions have improved for spring wheat in Siberia, with generous July rainfall reversing early-season dryness, but persistent drought will likely reduce yield in the Ural District. Meanwhile, winter grain harvest is nearly complete in the Southern District and farmers have gathered a bumper winter wheat crop. The USDA estimates Russian wheat production for 2004/05 at 43.5 million tons, against 34.1 million last year and 50.6 million in 2002/03.
As of August 9, the Russian grain harvest was roughly 25 complete. According to Ministry of Agriculture statistics, over 32 million tons had been threshed (against approximately 16 million by the same date last year) from 11.3 (7.2) million hectares, and yield was up 25 percent from last year. The sharp year-to-year improvement was not unexpected, as severe winter weather destroyed over 25 percent of the 2003/04 winter grain crop, but year-to-date yield is up nearly 10 percent from outstanding yield of 2002/03. Harvest is underway in the Central District and Volga Valley, and field activity has benefited from two weeks of generally dry weather.
In the Ural District, vegetative indices from MODIS and SPOT-VEG satellite imagery and reports from local agricultural officials indicate that harvest prospects were diminished by persistent dryness and excessive heat. Temperatures exceeded 35 degrees C (95 degrees F) during mid-July, when spring wheat was advancing through the reproductive stage and sensitive to high temperatures. The Ural District is not a major grain production region; total grain output averages only 4.5 million tons compared to nearly 21 million in the Volga Valley.
The Siberian District produces an average of 13 million tons of grain annually, including 40-50 percent of Russia's spring wheat production. Current crop conditions are favorable. Abundant July precipitation reversed early-season dryness and spring grains encountered little or no temperature stress during flowering.
Meanwhile, conditions are mixed for spring wheat in neighboring Kazakstan and marked by localized drought. The USDA estimates Kazakstan wheat production at 12.0 million tons, up 0.5 million from last year due to higher estimated area. Yield is estimated at 1.02 tons per hectares, the same as last year and slightly below the average of the past five years. Three north-central oblasts -- Kostanai, Akmola, and North Kazakstan -- account for roughly 75 percent of the country's grain production. Seasonal precipitation is close to normal in Akmola and North Kazakstan, and output from these two oblasts will likely compensate for lower yields in Kostanai, which received only about half of the average June and July rainfall.
