July 22, 2004

Central Europe and Balkan Countries
Expecting Bumper Harvests

Summary: New Member State Countries (NMS-10)     
       
The NMS-10 countries of the European Union (EU) include: Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary,  
Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and the island nations of Cyprus and Malta.

Production Charts

NMS-10 Wheat             NMS-10 Corn
             

Favorable weather since last fall has left eastern and central Europe expecting bumper yields for both winter and summer crops. Wheat and barley are currently being harvested; summer crops continue developing, with harvest expected in another two to three months (September/October). Yields for the primary summer crops--corn and sunflower--look very promising, but final results will hinge on late-July and early-August weather.

Wheat production in the NMS-10 is expected to rebound sharply in 2004/05 from last season when late planting, winterkill, and spring dryness combined to devastate yield. This year, almost all regions have enjoyed a precipitation surplus, which has resulted in beneficial soil moisture levels. In addition, the 2004 winter was mild, with little damage to the over-wintering crop, while spring and summer has lacked any damaging extreme temperatures.  The agricultural concerns this year are not about quantity, but about possible reduced wheat quality.  Excessive moisture during June may have lowered the quality of wheat; however recently rains have tapered off and conditions have improved.  Harvesting typically begins in early July and lasts into August and September. The new member states (NMS-10) have a combined 2004/05 wheat production estimated at 20.9 million tons, up 900,000 from last month and up 4.8 million tons from last year.  Area is estimated at 5.5 million hectares, 500,000 above last year's crop, when winterkill greatly reduced harvested area.  

Barley production is poised to recover in 2004/05.  Because it is typically the first crop harvested, excessive June rainfall likely created harvest delays and caused quality problems.  Hungary has seen the most precipitation in the NMS-10 countries and may have experienced the most quality issues.  Barley is typically harvested from late June until August. The NMS-10's 2004/05 combined barley production is estimated at 8.5 million tons, up 400,000 tons from last year.  

Hungary continues to be the dominant NMS-10 corn producer, accounting for about 60 percent of this year’s aggregate production.  Some of the northern countries (Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic) however, have seen very dramatic increases in corn production over the last ten years since the introduction of short-season varieties. Corn grown in this cooler climate is harvested with a high moisture content and must be dried at additional expense. Combined 2004/05 corn production is estimated at 10.5 million tons, up 2.6 million from last year, while area is up 200,000 hectares. The estimated yield of 5.63 tons/ha is above the five-year average, and well above last year’s poor yield. 

Maps (linked below) show beneficial, above-average rainfall and soil moisture, as well as strong vegetation health.  

Reference Maps:
map showing NMS-10
map showing major grain/oilseed producing areas of NMS-10

Seasonal Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation Health Charts:

Balkan States

The Balkan countries have also enjoyed beneficial weather this year, raising expectations of an abundant grains season. The 2004/05 season has been quite unlike last year when winter crops suffered severely from winterkill ,and summer grains were reduced by a spring and summer drought.  A summary of crop estimates for southeast Europe's largest grain and oilseed producing countries follows:

Reference Map showing the Non-EU Balkan States (In red text)

Romania

Like its neighboring countries, wheat production in Romania is expected to sharply rebound in 2004/05 from the previous season when late planting, winterkill, and spring dryness combined to devastate yield.  The 2004 winter was mild, with little damage to the over-wintering crop in any region. Abundant rainfall has resulted in higher than average soil moisture levels in most growing regions.  The exception to the precipitation surplus is along the eastern borderlands with Moldova, the region known as Moldavia.  Although this area is a "secondary-sized" growing region, it experienced extended dryness before receiving a heavy, mid-July rain event that likely delayed harvesting.  Yields in this region have surely fallen because of these weather events. Wheat harvesting begins in July and lasts into August.

Romania’s 2004/05 wheat production is estimated at 5.2 million tons, up 700,000 tons from last month and up 3.2 million tons above last year’s low production level.  Area is estimated at 1.8 million hectares, 300,000 above last year.  The estimated yield of 2.89 tons/ha is the highest since 1999/2000. 

Corn is Romania’s primary summer crop. It is widely grown throughout the country, but it is concentrated in three primary areas: Banat in the west, the Danube Plain in the south, and Dobruja in the southeast.  All three major agricultural regions have received above-average rainfall this season, and as a result they continue to have beneficial soil moisture.  The high soil moisture that currently exists at mid-season provides insurance against Romania's often damagingly dry and hot, late summer period. 

Corn production is estimated at 9.2 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month due to good summer weather, and up 2.7 million tons from last year.  Area is estimated at 3.2 million hectares, up 600,000 hectares from last year.  The estimated yield of 2.88 tons/ha is the highest in five years, but still lies far below yields attained during years of heavy subsidies and intensive irrigation enacted during Communism.

Romanian Sunflowerseed Production Chart
Romanian Sunflowerseed Production History

Production Charts:
Romanian production                               Wheat Production for
of wheat, corn, and Sunflower                 Romania and Bulgaria
                         

Seasonal Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation Health:

Map showing major growing regions in Romania and Bulgaria 

Bulgaria
Bulgaria’s 2004/05 wheat production is estimated at 2.9 million tons, up 1.2 million tons from last year’s disappointing production level.  Area is estimated at 900,000 hectares, adjusted down 50,000 from last month, but up 150,000 hectares from last year's crop.  The estimated yield of 3.22 tons/ha is the highest in ten years. 

Bulgaria’s 2004/05 corn production is estimated at 1.1 million tons, up 150,000 tons from last year's harvest.  Area is estimated at 375,000 hectares, down 25,000 from last year when more summer crops were planted to offset lost winterkill area.  Beneficial soil moisture levels have aided corn development this season, and in-country sources report that a very large crop is to be expected.  Late July and early August weather however, will be critical in determining final yields.
 
Seasonal Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation Health:

Serbia and Montenegro
Serbia and Montenegro's estimated wheat production is also estimated up substantially from last season. Wheat production is estimated at 2.2 million tons, up 800,000 tons from last year. Area is up 5 percent to 630,000 hectares.  Barley production is estimated at 330,000 tons, fifty percent above last year's 220,000 tons.  Corn production is estimated at 5.2 million tons, 37 percent above last year's 3.8 million ton crop.  The grain belt of Serbia is located in Vojvodina, the country's northern third.  This region's agriculture has fared very well since fall planting, but like its neighbors, it must avoid a hot and dry late summer.  

Seasonal Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation Health:
Vojvodina, Northern Serbia

Croatia
Croatia's estimated 2004/05 wheat production is 840,000 tons, which is 240,000 tons higher than last year.  Area is estimated to have been increased 10 percent from last year to 215,000 hectares. Additionally, barley production increased 55,000 tons to 160,00 tons, while the most important summer crop is corn, estimated at 2.1 million tons, 17 percent above last year.

Seasonal Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation Health:
Croatia

Bosnia/Herzegovina
Bosnia/Herzegovina is estimated to produce 300,000 tons of wheat, up 54 percent from last season.  Corn production is estimated at 750,000 tons, up 15 percent.  

Seasonal Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation Health:
Bosnia

For more information, contact Bryan Purcell
  with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202) 690-0138