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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
March 11, 2004
The 2004/05 winter grain crop, almost exclusively wheat and barley, in Northwest Africa remains on track to be another potentially large harvest. Ensuring another year of good grain collection will still require sufficient March and April rainfall in the Maghreb (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia.) Critical and necessary weather milestones have been met so far this season. Initially, widespread, timely rains during planting permitted farmers across the Maghreb to achieve high sown area last fall. During winter, showers kept soil moisture levels adequate in Tunisia and eastern Algeria. In the west, however, winter dryness began in late December and persisted into February. Yield potential in the affected regions of western Algeria and Morocco has likely been reduced somewhat by the winter rainfall deficit, but its effect should be minor. This is because crop damage due to dryness was tempered as seasonally low temperatures kept detrimental evaporation rates to a minimum.
Winter drought worries that had been building in Morocco subsided after late winter rains brought precipitation to much of the country. While rainfall was spotty in locations, it covered large swaths of the country, including some of the driest agricultural land, located in the south and in the center of the country. Additional rainfall, however, is still needed during the next few weeks to recharge moisture reserves in Morocco and eastern/central Algeria. Also, precipitation is necessary for the upcoming spring growth spurt, and to offsets increased evaporation levels associated with rising spring temperatures. The winter grain crops usually reach reproduction in late March and early April. Rainfall is essential during the water-dependent reproductive stage. Hence, if March and April rainfall is sufficient, Morocco has the potential for a very good crop. Morocco alone produces two-thirds of Northwest Africa's grain; therefore, considerable fall, winter, and especially spring rainfall in Morocco is vital if Northwest Africa is to produce a large harvest.
Storms shifted westward toward the large grain-producing area of eastern Algeria and Tunisia, leaving adjacent western and central Algeria saw almost exclusively cloud-free days in January and most of February. While some areas in Algeria experienced winter dryness, as a whole, Algeria enjoyed good seasonal precipitation. For an often arid region, frequent and consistent rainfall was a rare but welcomed surprise. Recently however, the central coast which includes the capital of Algiers, saw decreased rainfall. This has resulted in total seasonal precipitation being a bit below normal in the central region. The country's most important agricultural lands are farther to the east along the Tunisian border where rainfall has been more copious. Also positioned well, Tunisia's crops have seen periods of rainfall almost all season, with only the month of February running a moisture deficit. Tunisian crops will surely benefit from the higher soil moisture that has built up during the winter months.
| Maps | Graphs | Recent Precipitation |
| November through February | Morocco | End of February/Early March |
| January and February | Algeria | February |
| November and December | Tunisia |
| NDVI (Vegetation) maps | Surface Moisture Anomaly |
| Northwest Africa Wheat Production | Northwest Africa Reference Map |
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For current and historical official USDA data on production, supply and distribution of agricultural commodities for the European Union and much of the world, visit PS&D Online
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