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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
March 1, 2004
China’s 2004 winter wheat crop is now coming out of dormancy and appears to be in fair to good condition. As of February 20, 2004, the winter wheat crop is jointing in southern and southwest China, tillering across the southern half of the North China Plain, and dormant-to-emerging in northern crop areas. Satellite imagery for February 14, 2004 clearly shows the gradual south-to-north crop progression, and vegetation index maps (derived from AVHRR-satellite imagery) for February 20, 2004, indicate that current vegetative conditions are equal or better than last year and better than normal.
Total precipitation on the North China Plain has been greater than normal for the winter-crop season to date (September 1, 2003 through February 20, 2004), with most of the rainfall occurring in September and October 2003. This unusually wet weather caused locally serious flooding in and around the Yellow River Basin and delayed China’s 2004/05 winter wheat planting season (normally mid-September though October 15) by 1 to 2 weeks. It was reported that some of the late-planted wheat did not become well established before going into dormancy in December; in a few places, wet conditions prevented farmers from planting any winter crops. (see "Excessive Rainfall in China and Flooding Damaged Crops, Delayed Fieldwork", USDA/FAS/PECAD)
Weather was seasonably dry from December through mid-February across the North China Plain, with very little snowfall to protect the dormant wheat from wind damage or severe cold. Fortunately, temperatures were relatively mild and there were no reports of winterkill. Topsoil moisture levels declined sharply in January and February due to the lack of precipitation, but subsoil moisture levels were good thanks to the above-normal precipitation in the fall, and the percent soil moisture was generally favorable and higher than last year.
On February 20 and 21, moderate rain and snow (10 to 25 mm) covered the North China Plain and Yangtze River valley, bringing total precipitation since December close to normal levels and boosting topsoil moisture for winter crops and spring planting. The favorable precipitation, combined with unusually warm temperatures (5 to 8 C above normal), accelerated the emergence and growth of winter grain and oilseeds and improved overall growing conditions. Additional rain will be needed over the next few weeks to ensure continued good crop development. The most critical period for rainfall will be April and May, when winter wheat will be in the heading / filling stage and moisture needs are greatest.
USDA's February estimate of China's 2003/04 wheat production is 86.0 million tons from 22.0 million hectares. The first USDA area and production estimates for the 2004/05 crop will be published on May 12.
China: Wheat Update - November 2003
China: Grain Supply and Demand (PS&D Online - Official USDA Statistics)
Crop Explorer (USDA/FAS/PECAD)
China Country Page (USDA/FAS/PECAD)
