February 11, 2004

EU-15: 2003/04 Wheat, Coarse Grain and Rice Estimates by Country

Wheat, Coarse Grain Production Down Sharply from 2002

This report provides further background on the USDA official estimates released February 10, 2004.

2003/04 Recap

FAS/Washington estimates 2003/04 European Union (EU-15) wheat production at 90.7 million tons, 8 percent below last year's revised crop of 103.9 million. Harvested area is estimated at 17.0 million hectares, 13 percent below last year's level of 18.0 million. The yield for this year's crop is estimated to be 5.35 tons per hectare, substantially lower than last year's yield of 5.79 tons per hectare.  Estimates from the 2001/02 and 2002/03 crop years were revised this month, based on a variety of sources.

FAS/Washington estimates 2003/04 EU-15 coarse grain production at 92.4 million tons, 13 percent below last year's revised crop of 105.6 million. Harvested area is estimated at 18.8 million hectares, 2 percent below last year's level of 19.2 million. Total coarse grain yield for this year's crop is estimated to be 4.92 tons per hectare, substantially lower than last year's yield of 5.51  tons per hectare.  Coarse grains include barley, corn, mixed grain (including triticale), oats, rye, and sorghum.  Estimates from the 2001/02 and 2002/03 crop years were revised this month, based on a variety of sources.

FAS/Washington estimates 2003/04 EU-15 milled rice production at 1.67 million tons, 2 percent above last year's revised crop of 1.64 million. Harvested area is estimated at 0.41 million hectares, 2 percent above last year's level of 0.40 million. Total rough rice yield for this year's crop is estimated to be 6.60 tons per hectare, marginally above last year's yield of 6.55 tons per hectare.  Estimates from the 2001/02 and 2002/03 crop years were revised recently, based on a variety of sources.

2004/05 Outlook

Wheat and coarse grain prices were attractive last fall when European farmers were making their 2004/05 planting decisions, because of a season of below average production and a moratorium on exports.  Several countries have reported winter grain planting intentions, including France (SCEES), Germany (StBa), Denmark (NYT), Sweden (SJV), and Portugal (INE).  Reports from these countries, which account for roughly half of the total EU wheat area, give the indication that wheat area is up by roughly 5 percent over last year.  Winter wheat makes up the vast majority of all wheat grown in the European Union.  A large proportion of barley grown in the European Union is planted in spring, but early reports for the aforementioned countries indicate that winter barley area is also about 5 percent greater than last year.  Establishment conditions for winter grains have generally been favorable in recent months.  An EU farm policy change to reduce the obligatory set-aside rate from 10 percent to 5 percent could spur an increase in spring crop area, compared to last year.  Survey results from other major wheat and barley producers, including the UK, Spain and Italy will not be available until later this spring.  The first official USDA EU wheat and coarse grain production forecast will be released on May 12, 2004.

Country Details

The tables below represent the details of the official USDA EU-15 grain totals.  The practice of reporting official monthly statistics for each individual country within the EU-15 ended in May 2002.  The numbers that appear below are provided as a convenience to USDA customers, but users are advised that there is no longer an official USDA production estimate for any individual country within the EU-15.  The only official USDA estimates are the EU-15 totals, which are the sums of the individual country statistics listed below.

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Wheat and Coarse Grains Statistics

Barley, Corn and Oats Statistics

Mixed Grain, Rye and Sorghum Statistics

Rice Statistics

Other USDA Resources on the Internet

Web Updates

EU-15:  2003/04 Oilseed and Cotton Estimates by Country, 1/15/04

EU-15:  Winter Update, 12/17/03

NASA Earth Observatory: Fall Crops Fail to Emerge in UK, 12/2/03
EU-15:  Grain Forecast by Country, 11/13/03
Rapeseed Production May Benefit from New EU Directive, 11/4/03
EU-15:  Cotton Production Summary, 10/2/03
EU-15:  Biodiesel Industry Expanding Use of Oilseeds, 9/23/03
EU-15:  Summer Crops Suffer from Heat and Drought, 9/12/03
EU-15:  Grain Forecast by Country, 8/13/03

EU-15:  Oilseed and Rice Forecast by Country, 7/14/03
Germany:  Field Travel Reveals Conditions and Trends, 6/19/03
EU-15:  Grain Forecast by Country, 5/13/03
EU Enlargement:  Eastern Germany Crop Yield Increases Herald Changes in Central Europe, 1/13/03

Global Agriculture Information Network (GAIN) Reports

European Union, Grain and Feed Semi-Annual, 2003, E23239 (pdf), 12/11/03
European Union, Oilseeds and Products Annual, 2003, E23144 (pdf), 8/1/03
European Union, Grain and Feed Annual 2003, E23086 (pdf), 6/2/03
European Union, Grain and Feed Semi-Annual 2003, E23001 (pdf), 1/6/03

Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Mission to the European Union

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Interactive Tools

For crop conditions in the European Union and throughout the world, visit Crop Explorer

For current and historical official USDA data on production, supply and distribution of agricultural commodities for the European Union and much of the world, visit PS&D Online

For more information, contact Jim Tringe james.tringe@usda.gov
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202)720-0882