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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
January 26, 2004
As of January 12, 2004, USDA forecasts South Africa’s 2003/04 corn production at 8.0 million tons, down 0.9 million from last month, and down 1.7 million from last year’s crop. Corn area for both commercial and developing sectors is forecast at 3.1 million hectares, down 200,000 hectares from last month and down 550,000 hectares from last year. The current corn area estimate for South Africa is the lowest in over fifty years; dry planting conditions in late December lowered corn area to a level insufficient for domestic needs. Average rainfall from mid-January to March is required to obtain a 5-year average yield of 2.65 tons per hectare. USDA’s current yield estimate of 2.58 tons per hectare is slightly below the 5-year average due to reduced potential yields caused by dry weather conditions in December and January.
Figure 1. Corn area decreases in South Africa during the past 20 years.
Rainfall has been good for the past week in most areas of the Maize Triangle, but even if the remaining growing season receives average rainfall, South Africa will produce less corn than the 5-year average of 9.4 million tons. Both dryland and irrigation farmers planted less corn this year because of a combination of economic and weather factors. Major economic reasons for not planting corn were low market prices and high carry-over stocks from last year’s above average crop of 9.7 million tons. Below-average rainfall for the past year also caused low soil moisture reserves at the time of planting which caused farmers to plant less corn due to increased risk of dryland crop failure. In addition, warm temperatures and a severe dry spell in December stressed emerging crops in many areas and prevented some farmers from planting seeds in parched soils.
Less corn area will be irrigated this year, which will prevent South Africa from producing two million tons of irrigated corn as they did last year. A record irrigated corn crop was produced last year due to record irrigated corn area of over 200,000 hectares. This year’s irrigated area will be much less than last year because irrigators switched back to planting potatoes and vegetables due to low corn prices at the time of corn planting. In addition, surface water availability from dams and streams was low this year due to below-average rainfall during last summer and winter seasons. These low surface water reserves are expected to lower total irrigation area in South Africa this year and irrigated corn area will be less due to farmers switching to alternative crops.
Markets appear to be aware of South Africa's low corn area as South Africa’s National Crop Estimates Committee (NCEC) announced in August and October 2003, that many farmers did not intend to plant corn. The committee reported commercial-sector planting intentions for the respective months at the low levels of 2.8 and 2.72 million hectares. The press also widely reported on Tuesday, January 20, that the NCEC recently lowered their corn area estimate to 2.55 million hectares, down 166,000 from their previous estimate of 2.72 million at the end of October. Additionally, the developing-sector corn area for last year was 466,000 hectares and it is anticipated that unfavorable weather and low soil moisture reserves this year will likewise reduce corn area for this sector.
Planting typically begins in October in the east and gradually progresses to the west where it ends in early January. In the eastern portion of the Maize Triangle, optimum planting dates are mid-October to mid-November and farmers were able to plant at that time. However, dry conditions and warm temperatures in December stressed many young plants and some farmers had to replant due to poor emergence. Late re-plantings will reduce potential yields due to a shorter growing season and increase the risk of frost damage at harvest time.
In the central and western region of the Maize Triangle, planting was delayed due to dry conditions and low soil moisture reserves. Optimal planting in the west is before Christmas, but dry conditions prevented large portions of the crop from being planted during the strategic time, right before Christmas. Because rainfall has been scattered, patchy, and erratic throughout the Maize Triangle this year, forecasting yields from crop models and field surveys will be more difficult. The extended planting periods will cause crop stages to vary widely from field to field and will result in extended harvesting periods.
President Mbeki of South Africa declared on Friday, January 16, that six of the country’s nine provinces are disaster areas, due to the drought. The provinces suffering from lack of rainfall are Northern Cape, Northwest, KwZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, and Free State. The seventh province, Limpopo, had previously been declared a disaster area. South Africa typically provides surplus corn to neighboring countries with food deficits, but this year’s low corn output will require South Africa, a traditional corn exporter, to import yellow corn (refer to January 2004 GAIN report). In addition, large portions of southern Africa experienced dry conditions in December and January, and these countries include Lesotho, Swaziland, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, southern Malawi, southern Zambia, and Tanzania. The seasonal rainfall map shown below was downloaded from Crop Explorer and shows below-average seasonal rainfall for a large portion of southern Africa.
South Africa
GAIN Report (January 2004)
South Africa
GAIN Report (December 2003)
Crop Explorer for Southern Africa
Corn Production by
Province
Average Yields by
District
South Africa Landcover
Record Corn Irrigation (2003) in South Africa
Preliminary Crop Area Estimates by NCEC
Drought Declared by President Mbeki
