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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
December 14, 2004
China's 2005/06 winter wheat prospects are good. Temperatures have been mild, and timely showers provided adequate soil moisture for planting, germination and tillering in most crop areas. Satellite imagery indicates that crop development as of the end of November was more vigorous than normal and better than last year. Winter wheat in the Yellow River basin is now semi-dormant. In southern wheat-growing areas, crops are still vegetative and normally become dormant by late-December.
The 2005/06 winter wheat crop was planted from late September through October 2004 and will be harvested in May/June 2005. The 2005/06 spring wheat crop, which accounts for about 6 to 8 percent of total output, will be planted in April/May and harvested in July/August. Initial USDA area and production estimates for China's 2005/06 wheat crop will be released on May 12, 2005.
Heavy rainfall in July and August filled rivers, lakes, and reservoirs on the North China Plain and raised soil moisture prior to the start of the winter wheat planting season. The weather turned favorably warm and dry by mid-September and soil moisture levels at the end of the month were nearly ideal for winter wheat planting and germination. Conditions were especially fine in Shandong and Henan provinces on the North China Plain, China's most important wheat-growing provinces. Last year, unusually heavy rain in August and September led to serious flooding and water-logging in the Yellow River basin and caused significant planting delays.
Warm and dry weather persisted through October across the region, and topsoil moisture was rapidly depleted. Local officials in Anhui, Jiangsu and Hubei provinces were concerned that the dry conditions might cause planting delays and poor emergence. Fortunately, moderate showers in November eased the dryness and and provided adequate moisture for wheat development. Satellite imagery and Vegetative Index (NDVI) maps from mid-November clearly show the beneficial effect of the November precipitation on the emerging wheat crop in southern growing areas.
Light to moderate snow (up to 5 inches) covered parts of Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan on November 24 to 26, further boosting soil moisture levels for the emerging crop and offering some protection against cold weather. By the end of the month, below-freezing temperatures were reported as far south as the Yangtze River, which is typical for the date. Average temperatures in early December were 1 to 5 C. above normal and remained above the 5 C. degree threshold for dormancy in southern growing areas. The unseasonably warm weather in December melted most of the snow that fell on the North China Plain in November.
Wheat accounts for 20 to 22 percent of China's total grain output (in third place after rice and corn). More than 90 percent of China’s total wheat crop is winter wheat, grown primarily on the North China Plain in rotation with cotton, corn, or oilseeds. Winter wheat in central china is commonly rotated with single-crop rice or cash crops. Most of the crop, perhaps 70 to 80 percent, is fully irrigated or receives supplemental irrigation at some point. Spring wheat is grown north of the Yellow River and west of the North China Plain, particularly in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and Gansu provinces. Spring wheat is rarely irrigated and yields are typically more than 30 percent below winter wheat yields.
China is the largest wheat-producing country in the world. In 2004/05, China produced an estimated 90.0 million tons, up 3.5 million or 4 percent from the previous year. The total includes an estimated 85.0 million tons of winter wheat and 5.0 million tons of spring wheat. Wheat area for 2004/05 is estimated at 21.5 million hectares, down 2 percent from last year and the lowest area on record. Despite unusually wet weather during the 2004/05 planting season, wheat yields reached a record 4.19 tons per hectares.
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