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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
October 13, 2004
The sowing campaign for the 2005/06 winter grain crops in Russia and Ukraine is nearing completion. Reports from the Russian Ministry of Agriculture indicate that large agricultural enterprises, which account for roughly 85 percent of the country's grain production, had sown 10.8 million hectares of winter grains by October 5 against 10.9 million by approximately the same date last year. In Ukraine, official data place sown area at 6.7 million hectares (against a target of 7.9 million), including 5.7 (6.5) million hectares of wheat. Winter grain planting in both Russia and Ukraine is typically 80 to 85 percent complete by early October.
Moisture conditions are generally favorable throughout Ukraine except for a band of dryness in the southeast that includes several important winter wheat oblasts. The dryness extends eastward into Russia's Southern District, a key agricultural region that produces for over half of Russia’s winter wheat. Since fall planting in both Russia and Ukraine advances from north to south, the regions currently marked by low surface moisture were the last to be planted -- or in some areas have not yet been planted -- so the effect of the current dryness is likely minimal. Low soil moisture during winter-grain establishment is not unusual, especially in southern Ukraine, and early-October moisture conditions this year are considerably better than at the same time last year. Except in cases of persistent drought, winter crops usually receive enough fall precipitation to ensure successful germination and establishment before entering dormancy in November. Soil moisture reserves are typically recharged over the winter and winter crops break dormancy in the spring with adequate moisture to resume vegetative growth.
In Ukraine, wheat comprises 95 percent of total wheat area and about 85 percent of winter grains area. Rye and barley account for roughly 10 and 5 percent of winter grain area respectively. In 2004/05, Ukraine recorded a bumper wheat harvest following below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation during the growing season. Production is estimated at 17.5 million tons, nearly five times the output of the previous year, when severe winter weather destroyed a staggering 65 percent of the winter grains. Wheat area for 2004/05 is estimated at 5.65 million hectares.
In Russia, the major winter grains are wheat and rye. Wheat typically comprises roughly 35 percent of total wheat area (but about half of the production due to higher yield compared to spring wheat) and almost 70 percent of Russia's winter grain area. The USDA estimates total wheat area for 2004/05 at 24.0 million hectares and production at 43.5 million tons. Rye is lower yielding but more cold tolerant than wheat, and is grown in the more northern grain production zones. Area for 2004/05 is estimated at 2.0 million hectares and production at 3.6 million tons. A relatively small amount of winter barley, about 0.5 million hectares, is grown in the Southern District. (Spring barley accounts for about 95 percent of Russia's total barley area and is grown throughout the country's grain production zone.)
Official USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available at PSD Online. Initial estimates for 2005/06 will be released on May 12, 2005.
