October 13, 2004

South Africa's Wheat Yields Near Average

USDA's October estimate for South Africa's 2004/05 wheat production is 2.13 million tons, unchanged from last month but up 585,000 from last year. Planted area increased from 748,000 hectares last year to 850,000 in MY2004/05. The wheat crop was planted in May/June this year and will be harvested in November/December.  Yields this year are expected to return to the 5-year average of 2.5 tons/ha, after last year’s wheat crop suffered from very poor yields caused by dry weather in the Western Cape. USDA's wheat production estimate is slightly larger than South Africa's Crop Estimating Committee's (CEC) second production estimate of 2.05 million tons, released on September 20th, .  

The Western Cape and Free State provinces typically produce three-quarters of the crop, with approximately 85 percent of total wheat planted area cultivated under rainfed conditions and 15 percent of the crop irrigated.  Most wheat produced in the Western Cape is under rainfall conditions, with the southwestern part of the Western Cape being one of the most important wheat producing regions in South Africa. Unsteady and erratic rainfall in the Western Cape often produces wide variations in wheat yields and quality, with South Africa having a surplus of wheat during very good rainfall years and shortages of wheat occurring most of the time. 

Rainfall during July and August 2004 was slightly below normal for the Western Cape, but it is expected to result in an average crop yield. For the Free State, the eastern parts received some rain during July and August which ensured favorable planting conditions. Drier conditions were experienced over the central and western parts where drought stress is currently visible.  Minimum temperatures dropped below freezing in early September which may have caused some damage in the central and western parts of the Free State as well as the Northern Cape.

Other Related FAS Links

Dry Conditions for Wheat Crop
NDVI Analysis for South Africa's Wheat Region in the Western Cape
Rainfall Analysis for Western Cape's Wheat Season
Major Wheat Regions in South Africa
Cold Temperatures in early September, 2004
Landcover (and Cropland) for South Africa
Crop Explorer for Southern Africa

For more information, contact Curt Reynolds
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at Curt.Reynolds@fas.usda.gov or (202) 690-0134.