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Grain: World Markets and Trade
Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series
FG 05-04
May 2004
Grain Stocks Continue to Shrink,
Despite Record Production
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Global grain production is forecast to climb in 2004 to a record level, primarily due to recovering crops throughout Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Wheat production is expected to grow for the first time in 6 years, with coarse grain production set to rise to a record and rice production also forecast to expand. Notwithstanding these large increases, steadily rising consumption due to population growth and expanding livestock sectors will again outstrip production. Consequently, in 2004/05 ending stocks are forecast to fall for the fifth consecutive year. Over this period, global grain stocks have been slashed by half--with most of this decline coming in China. In fact, for the rest of the world, ending stocks of wheat and coarse grains are actually projected to be up slightly year-to-year. Continued tightening grain supplies in China will be an important dynamic for world trade in 2004/05. For wheat, China is forecast to be the world’s largest importer for the first time in 9 years. For corn, reduced exports should help U.S. sales surge to their highest level in a decade. And for rice, for the first time in history, China is forecast to become a net importer of non-fragrant white rice for 2 consecutive years. |
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Complete Grain Report in PDF: Text and Tables
Wheat Commentary [Text] [Adobe Acrobat Format] Wheat Data Tables [Excel Spreadsheet Format] [Adobe Acrobat Format] Rice Commentary [Text] [Adobe Acrobat Format] Rice Data Tables [Excel Spreadsheet Format] [Adobe Acrobat Format] Coarse Grains Commentary [Text] [Adobe Acrobat Format] Coarse Grains Data Tables Excel Spreadsheet Format] [Adobe Acrobat Format]
Beginning January 2004, printed versions of the Grain: World Markets and Trade circular are no longer published. The online issue of the circular, which includes Summary Tables, Situation and Outlook reports, and Historical Data Series for Selected Regions and Countries, is available via the FAS Web site (http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/).EU Consolidation: The 2003/04 trade figures for April and May are not fully comparable. April's figures are a sum of the EU-15 and the 10 New Member States, so trade is inflated by any two-way trade between the two groups (EU-15 and acceding 10). All intra-trade has been removed from May's EU-25 data.
The following changes are effective with this May 2004 Circular:
EU Consolidation
With the introduction of the May Grain Circular, USDA has consolidated the EU-15 with the 10 acceding states. The trade figures for the EU-25 for the years 1999/00 through 2002/03 are inflated by the two-way trade between the two groups (EU-15 and acceding 10). Over the past 6 years, this "intra-trade" has averaged about 700,000 tons for wheat, 350,000 tons each for corn and barley, and 150,000 tons for rye. The trade figures also include intra-trade between members of the acceding 10. From 2003/04 onward, all intra-trade has been removed.
Spreadsheets containing the EU-15 and acceding 10 states data for 1999/00 through 2003/04 can be found on the FAS website at:
http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/circular/2004/05-04/EU15 and NMS10 April 2004 Lockup Data.xls
Region Changes
The EU is expanded to EU-25; the Eastern Europe and Other Western Europe regions are discontinued and the remaining countries are rolled into Other Europe; Former Soviet Union now includes 12 countries (FSU-15 minus the three Baltic countries); and Other Asia is split into East Asia and Southeast Asia. For specific definitions, please see the notes section of this Circular.
Country Name Changes
The following have been changed to reflect U.S. State Department usage: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kazakhstan, Maldives, Malta, Suriname.
Other Changes · Some countries were either added to or deleted from tables to more accurately reflect the major players involved in the global grain trade.
· Local Marketing Year Changes:
o Wheat - Paraguay to Dec/Nov from Jan/Dec.
o Sorghum - Sudan to Oct/Sep from July/June.
Historical Data Series
Revised Estimates of China Corn Consumption and Ending Stocks
World supply and demand estimates for corn and coarse grains incorporate significant revisions in USDA's estimates of China's corn consumption and stocks. China's government does not publish estimates of grain stocks. Recently, however, information from China's National Bureau of Statistics' surveys of urban households (August 2002) and rural households (November 2003), official statements, and evidence from trade and price patterns indicated that revisions in stock estimates were needed.
Domestic consumption and ending stocks of corn for China are revised beginning with the 1993/94 marketing year. Spreadsheets containing China corn, China coarse grain, world corn, and world coarse grain supply and distribution balances before and after the revisions can be found here: [Excel Spreadsheet Format], [Adobe Acrobat Format].
There are two parts to the corn consumption revisions. First, USDA lowered estimates of non-feed consumption (consisting of food, industrial and seed use) back to 1993/94. Estimated food consumption was lowered. However, industrial use (for production of starch, alcohol, and other products) is surging. The net effect is that USDA believes China's overall non-feed consumption is growing at an average rate of 2-3 percent a year, not the 5-8 percent previously estimated. Second, feed use is lowered from 1994/95 to 1999/2000 and then raised in subsequent years. These changes make corn feed use more consistent with USDA's meat production estimates for China, with USDA's estimates of the feed use of soybean meal and other protein meals, and with structural changes that have occurred in China's livestock sector.
Contact List
Data in this report is available in both Adobe Acrobat and Excel spreadsheet formats. You may need to Get the Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
