Welcome back to our newsletter!  Included in this edition are articles on the Florida Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS); the storm-based warning concept; and a new NOAA Weather Radio transmitter that includes portions of southern Marion county.  There are also several climate articles in the "Climate Corner", as well as a new section called the "Spotter Corner".

Website/Webletter NOAA Weather Radio Warnings/Outreach Climate Hydrology/Rivers Other Comments

scott.carroll@noaa.gov michael.mcallister@noaa.gov al.sandrik@noaa.gov angela.enyedi@noaa.gov melissa.hurlbut@noaa.gov steve.letro@noaa.gov

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Spotter Corner
by Angie Enyedi Forecaster/Assistant WCM
 
Skywarn Storm Spotter Class Season Returns!

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Climate Corner
by Angie Enyedi Forecaster/Climate Focal Point
 
Local Nor’Easter Events Brought Flooding Rains

They are no means the potent blizzard producing Nor’Easter storms that New England experiences, but our local Nor’Easter events can still induce weather-related havoc across the Jacksonville area.  This past September through early October, our area experienced several of these local Nor’Easter events.  All brought localized flooding, strong onshore winds, and areas of coastal flooding and beach erosion.  These local Nor’Easter events develop when strong high pressure amplifies down the southeast Atlantic seaboard while troughing develops offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast.  The pressure gradient between these two features, or the difference between the strength of the high pressure and low pressure, can funnel a strong northeast flow over our local area which can increase showers and thunderstorm activity due to the influx of Atlantic moisture, bring windy conditions- especially along the coast, and build surf to dangerous heights. 

The first significant local Nor’Easter event developed on September 17th and persisted through the 19th.  During the early morning hours of the 17th, a persistent band of convection established itself over Duval and northern St. Johns counties.  This band brought over 8 inches of rain to Jacksonville Beach, with daily amounts of 4 to 6 inches down the First Coast to Flagler Beach.  Training bands of convection, or areas of rain that move very little, continued to develop over portions of the forecast area through the 19th.  Up to 6 to 10 inches of rainfall accumulated in portions of our coastal counties within 72 hours.

The second event occurred the first week of October when a large upper level low retrograded, or moved westward, across the south Florida peninsula while high pressure remained over the mid-Atlantic region.  Bands of heavy rainfall developed once again across portions of the First Coast, with areas from northern St. Johns county to downtown Jacksonville sustaining flood and heavy rain damage.  Portions of the southside of Jacksonville near Gate Parkway and 9A measured just under 18 inches from October 1st through the 7th, which caused widespread street flooding and flooding of low lying areas. In northern St. Johns county, some residents in Julington Creek Plantation had up to 3 feet of standing water in their backyards and in streets. Some homes in north Jacksonville were flooded with up to 2 feet of standing water near Moncrief Creek.  Moncrief Creek overflowed its banks and flood waters pushed a car against a bridge. 

Thankfully, no one was injured during the flooding rains of these recent local Nor’Easter events.  We have been reminded, however, that these events can produce very heavy rainfall over a prolonged period of time which can lead to life threatening floods.  We would like to remind readers to develop a safety plan if you are in flood prone area.

Winter 2007-08 Outlook

La Niña is expected to persist and possibly strengthen as we move into the winter season, and this pattern does not bode well for the exceptional drought across portions of the southeast United States, including north Georgia.

The official climate outlook for December through February issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting above normal temperatures across our area as well as below normal precipitation.  This forecast considers the persistence of La Niña in the eastern Pacific Ocean.  A La Niña event is characterized by cooler than normal ocean water offshore of the coast of Central and South America.  The cooler water influences global wind patterns and climatologically shifts the polar jet stream farther north across North America which can influence the track of winter storms across the continent. With a polar jet stream focused across the northern and central portions of the United States during a strong La Niña year, there are climatologically a decreased number of cold air outbreaks and winter storms across the southern United States.  Thus, warmer and drier than normal conditions are expected across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia during strong La Niña events.

If the La Niña continues, it is likely that the drought situation across Georgia will intensify.  As of mid-October, Alma and St. Simons Island, Georgia, are around 9 inches below normal for the year. 

Although warmer than normal temperatures are forecast this winter across the southeast region, it is still likely we will experience several freeze events.  Below is a table that highlights how many freezes, on average, occur at climate data sites in our area.  

Site	Average Number of Freezes During a Winter Season
Alma, GA	24
St. Simons Island, GA	12
Jacksonville, FL	18
Gainesville, FL	15

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New NOAA Weather Radio Transmitter
by Scott Carroll Senior Forecaster/Webmaster

On July 16, 2007, a new NOAA Weather Radio transmitter was dedicated in Sumterville, Florida.  The transmitter was built in an effort to better reach residents of The Villages retirement community and was made possible by the combined resourses of The Villages homeowners association and entertainment group and several public and private sector contributors.  

The transmitter broadcasts on a frequency of 162.500 megahertz, and programming is provided by the National Weather Service Office in Tampa.  The broadcast area covers portions of Citrus, Hernando, Lake, Marion, and Sumter counties, and warnings, statements, and advisories for these areas will be included in the broadcast.

To see the NWS news story on the transmitter dedication, click here.   For the NWS Jacksonville NOAA Weather Radio transmitter and SAME code page, visit http://weather.gov/jax/noaaradio_xmtrs.shtml.  Nationwide information about the NOAA Weather Radio program can be found at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/.

Tests of the NOAA Weather Radio warning alarm tone are performed every Wednesday between the hours of 10 AM and noon - weather permitting.  If there is the threat of - or existing - severe weather, the test is performed on the first available good weather day.

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EDITOR Scott E. Carroll CONTRIBUTING WRITERS Scott Carroll Angie Enyedi Mike McAllister METEOROLOGIST-IN-CHARGE Steve Letro

             

Now you can let the National Weather Service know how much rain, hail, or snow you measured in your backyard by joining the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network - CoCoRaHS. This new program will help meteorologists and researchers study the variability of precipitation across the Sunshine State.  The accumulated data will be available to anyone who has a use or an interest in precipitation data.

CoCoRaHS started in Fort Collins, Colorado, in 1998 after a devestating flood. Researchers went back to look at the precipitation data that led to the flood and found that rainfall had missed all the official gauges! The Colorado State Climatologist, Nolan Doeskin, developed a new volunteer observing network to fill in the gaps between the official rain gauges and called this new network CoCoRaHS. The CoCoRaHS network spread across the country and was introduced in Florida on October 1st, 2007. The goal is to have an observer in every square mile across the state.
                                                                             
Please visit the CoCoRaHS web site at http://www.cocorahs.org to learn more about the program. NWS Jacksonville also has a CoCoRaHS page at http://weather.gov/jax/cocorahs.shtml. All you need to participate is an approved rain gauge, an acceptable location on your property to put the gauge, and the willingness to enter your precipitation data on a daily basis between 6 AM and 9 AM local time via the CoCoRaHS web site.

If you have a rain gauge, you can register your backyard or schoolyard as an official reporting site.  Once you register and begin to report your precipitation observations, your data will become part of daily records as well as plotted on county and state maps. You can view the maps and see how your observation fits in with your neighbors involved in CoCoRaHS across the country.

If you have questions about CoCoRaHS, contact your state or local coordinators.   The Northeast Florida coordinators at NWS Jacksonville are Mike McAllister and Melissa Hurlbut. The Florida state coordinators are Melissa Griffin and Pat Welsh.

Remember...every drop counts!

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What's New on the Website?
by Scott Carroll Senior Forecaster/Webmaster

There have been several new additions to the webpage during the past few months. Among these additions...

• Added highway overlays to frontpage map and the ability to turn highway and weather overlays off or on. The default display is highways off and weather on. For now, the point-and-click forecast map will not function with the highways turned on.
• Since TWEB's (transcribed weather broadcasts) have been discontinued, all reference to these products have been removed from the aviation page.
• NWS Jacksonville staff contact, virtual tour, and historical information has been consolidated on the About Our Office page.
• Simplified web addresses are now available for our most-used pages, including...

Severe Weather Page ... weather.gov/jax/severe
Marine Page ... weather.gov/jax/marine
Climate Page ... weather.gov/jax/climate
Tropical Page ... weather.gov/jax/tropical