Verification Statistics
See the DATEM (Data Archive of Tracer
Experiments and Meteorology) web page for more detailed information on each of these
tracer experiments. The model verification statistics are presented for the
unaveraged data, where each measured and calculated concentration is paired in space
and time. Zero-zero pairs are always excluded. Results are also presented after
temporally averaging the measured and calculated values over the duration of each
experiment. These latter results are paired in space but not time and hence
represent the calculation's spatial performance. Statistics presented are the
correlation coefficient (R), the fractional bias (FB), the figure-of-merit in
space (FMS), the KS parameter reprsenting the departure of the measured and
calculated cumulative distributions from each other, and the normalized rank (0 to 4)
which is computed from the sum of the previous four parameters.
Unless otherwise noted, all calculations used the NCAR/NCEP 2.5 degree reanlysis
meteorological data for the dispersion calculations. The main characteristics of each
experimental data set are summarized as follows:
ACURATE - Semi-continuous Kr-85 emissions from South Carolina and 12/24-hour sampling
along the US east coast at five locations from 100 to 800 km from the source for a
duration of 18 months.
ANATEX - A three month duration experiment with simultaneous 3-h duration releases of
perfluorocarbon tracer from Glasgow, MT (GGW) and St. Cloud, MN (STC). Twenty-four hour
averaged samples were collected at about 70 locations over the US east coast (500 to
3000 km downwind) for the duration of the experiment.
CAPTEX - Six 3-h duration perfluorcarbon releases from Dayton, OH or Sudbury, CA and
6-h sampling for about three days after each tracer release.
INEL74 - Semi-continuous Kr-85 releases from Idaho for a two month period and 12-h
averaged samples collected at 12 stations along a north to south line in the midwest US
about 1500 km downwind.
OKC80 - Single 3-h perfluorocarbon release from Norman, OK with 3-h samples collected
for about 2 days along an arc 600 km downwind from the source.
ETEX - Single 12-h perfluorcarbon release from eastern France and 3-h samples
collected throughout western Europe. Calculations used the ECMWF analysis data.
Unaveraged Verification Statistics for Long-Range Experiments
ACURATE
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
Apr 2001 |
0.28 |
-0.02 |
18.59 |
79 |
1.46 |
May 2002 |
0.25 |
-0.05 |
18.73 |
79 |
1.43 |
Dec 2002 |
0.25 |
+0.48 |
18.01 |
79 |
1.21 |
ANATEX - GGW Release
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
May 2002 |
0.34 |
+0.29 |
35.09 |
59 |
1.73 |
Dec 2003 |
0.44 |
+0.18 |
32.84 |
59 |
1.85 |
ANATEX - STC Release
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
Dec 2002 |
0.18 |
+0.16 |
34.06 |
56 |
1.73 |
Dec 2003 |
0.18 |
+0.19 |
33.97 |
56 |
1.72 |
CAPTEX
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
Apr 2001 |
0.01 |
-0.17 |
15.34 |
71 |
1.36 |
Dec 2002 |
0.00 |
-0.12 |
16.78 |
71 |
1.40 |
Dec 2003 |
0.02 |
-0.27 |
17.07 |
71 |
1.33 |
INEL74
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
Apr 2001 |
0.0 |
0.13 |
7.97 |
92 |
0.48 |
Dec 2002 |
0.0 |
1.39 |
7.27 |
92 |
0.46 |
OKC80
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
Apr 2001 |
0.16 |
-0.67 |
51.15 |
43 |
1.77 |
Dec 2002 |
0.08 |
-0.66 |
27.60 |
34 |
1.52td>
|
Dec 2003 |
0.43 |
-0.87 |
35.01 |
43 |
1.67 |
ETEX
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
Apr 2001 |
0.48 |
0.33 |
57.27 |
68 |
1.96 |
Dec 2003 |
0.45 |
0.78 |
47.69 |
68 |
1.61 |
Temporally Averaged Verification Statistics for Long-Range Experiments
ACURATE
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
Apr 2001 |
0.91 |
-0.03 |
100.0 |
39 |
3.43 |
May 2002 |
0.90 |
-0.06 |
100.0 |
58 |
3.20 |
Dec 2002 |
0.86 |
+0.47 |
10.0 |
78 |
2.73 |
ANATEX - GGW Release
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
Dec 2002 |
0.85 |
+0.26 |
100.0 |
18 |
3.41 |
Dec 2003 |
0.85 |
+0.14 |
100.0 |
23 |
3.43 |
ANATEX - STC Release
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
Dec 2002 |
0.56 |
+0.13 |
100.0 |
26 |
2.98 |
Dec 2003 |
0.48 |
+0.16 |
100.0 |
26 |
2.89 |
CAPTEX
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
Apr 2001 |
0.78 |
-0.18 |
93.59 |
10 |
3.35 |
Dec 2002 |
0.80 |
-0.17 |
94.87 |
17 |
3.33 |
Dec 2003 |
0.76 |
-0.31 |
94.87 |
19 |
3.18 |
INEL74
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
Apr 2001 |
0.13 |
1.39 |
100.0 |
89 |
1.43 |
Dec 2002 |
0.35 |
1.41 |
100.0 |
98 |
1.44 |
OKC80
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
Apr 2001 |
0.96 |
-0.65 |
90.70 |
14 |
3.36 |
Dec 2002 |
0.96 |
-0.64 |
80.0 |
18 |
3.21 |
|
Dec 2003 |
0.83 |
-0.85 |
90.0 |
20 |
2.97 |
ETEX
Model |
R |
FB |
FMS |
KS |
Rank |
Apr 2001 |
0.51 |
0.23 |
84.89 |
20 |
2.79 |
Dec 2003 |
0.59 |
0.65 |
82.55 |
20 |
2.65 |
Table of Contents