Program Status for 11 February 2001: IOP 09

No blocked flow in Bight, winds in Bight are light (5 kt). Precipitation appears to be stratiform in nature rather than convective.

Lightning detection system not reporting but San Luis Obispo reported a thunderstorm.

Strongest convection south of San Francisco Bay area is in a stationary line of showers from 35.5/120 to 33.8/122.7 and passes over San Luis Obispo. Cells are forming in the SE and traveling to the NW with the highest Dbz values in the mid 40s. San Luis Obispo reporting moderate rain with .08 last hour. Tops on the line of showers continue to be low with cloud top temps near the coast -17 to -8C 127 miles off shore.

Rain fall last hour:

     Santa Barbara         .00
     Old Man Mtn           NA
     Gibralter Dam         NA
     Carpinteria           NA
     La Granda Mtn         NA
     Matilija Cr.          NA
     

Goleta previous hour .01 approximately

Ertl

No Lightning strikes on detection system.

Band of mid level clouds is beginning to show some breaks in the stratus but continues to progress south with a small band of showers remaining from San Luis Obispo SW. Band shows very little progression with cells in the band slowly moving to the NE.

Main band of showers oriented from NE to SW is east of Santa Barbara and west of Point Mugu. Surface winds behind main band of showers over the Santa Barbara coast generally light with the strongest winds southeast of the main band of showers. Winds at point Mugu south 18G28KT.

Rain fall last hour:

     Santa Barbara         .01
     Old Man Mtn           .00
     Gibralter Dam         .00
     Carpinteria           .00
     La Granda Mtn         .16
     Matilija Cr.          .08

Golita previous hour .03 approximately

Ertl

0230 UTC February 12, 2001

No Lightning strikes on detection system.

00z Goes Winds 700-750mb shows large area of 40kt that corresponds with and parallel to the mid level stratus band that extends from Southwest from a San Luis Obispo to LA line.

Strongest echoes have moved inland and the lower tops are not showing up on radar until they get near the coast. Another line of showers is developing from San Luis Obispo SW cloud tops in the band -16 to -18C.

Rain fall last hour:

     Santa Barbara         .02
     Old Man Mtn           .00
     Gibralter Dam         .00
     Carpinteria           .04
     La Granda Mtn         .20
     Matilija Cr.          .39

Golita previous hour .00

Ertl

0130 UTC February 12, 2001

No Lightning strikes on detection system.

Main band of showers on Radar has moved east of Santa Barbara with several small bands moving east behind it.

Back edge of the mid level stratus deck is about 15 miles Northwest of San Luis Obispo and slowly moving south. Stratus cloud tops within 46 miles of the coast -10 to -15C clouds further from the coast generally -5 to -10C.

Rain fall last hour:

            Santa Barbara  .01
            Old Man Mtn    .00
            Gibralter Dam  .20
            Carpinteria    .20
            La Granda Mtn  .35
           

Ertl

PACJET Short Term Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service/PACJET Operations Center, Monterey, CA
1300 UTC February 1, 2001

Short Term (Sun - Tue)Discussion
Both Eta and Avn are in good agreement through 48 hours, and the model initialization looks excellent. Perhaps a direct result of special soundings/dropsondes related to Pacjet. The cold front along the Central California coast this morning will continue to drop slowly south to southeast. Mainly moderate but persistent precipitation across southern portions of the Santa Lucia Mountains and into the Santa Ynez Range...with scattered showers further north. Precipitation will increase across the LA basin tonight as the Upper Low along the Northern California coast continues its southward movement. Precipitation will be heavy during the day on Monday near the coast of Southern California. Favorable orographic flow will be combined with a layer precipitable water plume with values approaching 1.00 inch. Meso eta shows some significant instability offshore from LA monday evening. Otherwise the front will move south into Mexico with gradually decreasing showers across Southern CA monday night. Ridging offshore will result in northerly flow along the coast with gradual drying on tuesday.

Long Term (Wed-Sun) Discussion
Decent agreement at 72 hrs. but the medium range models diverge from there. Three main mid level features through the period will be an offshore ridge, a trough further west from northern California, and another trough which is expected to move southeast out of British Columbia and across Washington. Placement and movement of these features will make a large difference in future conditions. The Euro model continues to show the least similarity with the other models, and looks the least reasonable with dropping the British Columbia trough almost due south along the pacific northwest coast. So, this time frame does not look overly active. However, the Avn model at about 20N latitude shows a distinct change from easterly to westerly flow. This could be the harbinger of developing a tap of Tropical moisture by next week.

DW