Status

2010 (PST) No flight operations for tomorrow. Next flight update 1500 (PST) January 24.

1834 (PST) Flight operations completed for today, due to technical difficulties. Tentative flight ops plan for Thursday updated by January 24 1400 (PST).

1733 (PST) Addition to previous PACJET message.
New band seen developing to the SW of aircraft location given in previously message. Orientation 30' to 210', maximum reflectivites 40 - 50 dBZ. Melting level 5000ft.

1720 (PST) Report from Pacjet aircraft at 0100 UTC: a precip band with maximum reflectivities greater than 50 dBZ was located at 38'02" N and 123' 20" W. The orientation of the band was from 10' to 190'. The aircraft also reported new development to the southwest.

1255 (PST) In the warm sector: Strength of the LLJ was 40 kts winds and 170 degs at 900 m alt. On the cold side: Winds 30 kts from 228 deg at 900 m alt.
The first leg around 36.5 N and East of 123 , echo tops a 6 km, isolated cells at 8-10 km, 45 dBZ echos.
West of 123 deg, echo tops at 3-4 km with isolated 40-45 dBZ echos. Cells more isolated in nature.

1240 (PST) No super IOP tomorrow.
No PACJET flight tomorrow.
No special soundings at OAK tomorrow.
PACJET flight for January 25 TBD.

1200 (PST) Take-off

0800 (PST) The P-3 will fly today, Tuesday 1/23 to survey a frontal band and upper level low pressure system over the Eastern Pacific. Scheduled takeoff time is noon today. The plane is scheduled for an 8 hour flight.
There will be a possible super IOP centered around 23Z Wednesday. The final decision regarding the super IOP will be made later this afternoon.
Special 3-hr OAK soundings are scheduled to support this operation...from 12Z today through 12Z tomorrow.
A decision will be made later today whether to continue special OAK soundings beyond 12Z tomorrow.

Forecast Discussion 0815 (PST)
Frontal band off the Central California coast with echoes onshore near EKA south to just offshore SFO. Upper level dynamics splitting and surface low pulling to the NE. Despite this...a lot of cold air with this system and enough dynamics to generate some showers from SFO south. Frontal band to move onshore near MRY by 00Z and into central California by 06Z...when strongest dynamics move into the Sierra. QPF amounts from 0.25 in near SFO dropping off as you go farther south.

Stronger dynamics arrive tonight as cold air pool moves into the central coast. Atmosphere destabilizes and isolated thunderstorms possible. Locally heavier showers along mountain areas with orographic enhancement.

Negatively tilted splitting upper trof to move onshore Wednesday for a showery day with isolated thundersotrms and noticably cooler. Locally heavier showers are again possible over mountains and other orographically enhanced areas. The bulk of the energy with this system remains off the Washington coast while southern energy moves into Southern California late Wednesday.

Ridge over the area Thursday for a break while next system approaches. Energy from this phases with northern portion of old system by 12Z Thursday. This system forecast to move down the coast through Friday...though models now suggesting it will remain offshore. Showers in the bay area Friday. QPF amounts highly dependant on exact track of this feasture. Mountain areas more likely to receive heavier amounts. Strong jetogenists off the Northern California coast with H8 winds 55-60 kts as surge of cold air reinforces the old low off the Washington coast Thursday however.

European...MRF and NOGAPS all dig this down the coast into Friday wioth varying tracks and speeds. Canadian hangs low back along the Northern coast. This solution not likely due to prograsssive nature of the lkarge scale flow. Ridge builds into California from the North and West Saturday and Sunday...with a weaker system forecast to drop down back side of Eastern Pacific ridge Monday.

... Steve Goldstein NWS Reno

Aircraft Status
January 25 (PST)	Next possible flight TBA.
January 24 (PST)	No super IOP. No flight.
January 23 1200 (PST)	P3 take off.
January 23 (PST)	Flight planned for 1200 (PST) with storm surveillance and microphysical study emphasis

Soundings Status
23 January (UTC)
Bodega Bay	Special soundings beginning as early as 16 Z.
Cazadero	Soundings planned for ~23 Z.
Oakland	Special soundings requested every three hours starting 12 Z.
Reno	No soundings.
24 January (UTC)
Bodega Bay	Soundings continuing through event.
Cazadero	Soundings continuing through event.
Oakland	Special soundings continuing through 12 Z.
Reno	No soundings.

NOAA
Earth System Research Laboratory
Physical Science Division (PSD)
Formerly
Environmental Technology Laboratory
325 Broadway R/ETL
Boulder, Colorado 80305-3328
www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd

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