Program Status for 20 January 2001 : IOP 01

PACJET Forecast Discussion for Jan. 20 2001

The first PACJET flight is taking place this afternoon and evening to investigate the frontal structure and observed conditions associated with the system centered near 34N/138W at 19z.

The occluded circulation was clearly evident on satellite imagery with surface observations supporting a center about 10mbs deeper than the ETA/AVN 6hr forecast valid at 18z. The 12z ETA run has fared better than the AVN by indicating a surface center and upper trof farther southwest closer to the satellite position. A triple point low appears to be forming near 37N/132W which is forecast to strengthen and track northeastward along a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending northeast from the system....reaching the oregon coast sunday. The band of deep moisture ahead of the main frontal band and along the convergence area northeast of the system has been enhancing and should continue to progress eastward tonight. The heaviest pcpn is expected to reach into northern ca and oregon tonight and early sunday.

The outlook for the coming week indicates another system approaching the west coast late monday and tuesday which is currently forecast to be more significant than today's storm of concern. The latest model guidance showed some minor timing differences with a deeper trof and a significantly stronger sfc low lifting northeastward off the oregon and washington coasts early tuesday.