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000 FXUS64 KHGX 132017 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 317 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2008 .DISCUSSION... SE TX CURRENTLY IN THE SUBSIDENT ZONE AHEAD OF THE SHEARED OUT INVERTED TROF AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN GULF...GENERALLY S OF THE LA COAST. MAY SEE AN ISO SHRA IN LA MAKE ITS WAY INTO EXTREME SE ZONES PRIOR TO SUNSET. AS THE TROF MOVES W OF SE TX ON TUE...COLUMN MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REALLY START INCREASING AS WILL RAIN CHANCES. NO FOCUSING MECHANISM SEEN FOR TUE...BUT EXPECT SCT ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY COMPLIMENTS OF DAYTIME HEATING ETC. LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED...SFC TROFINESS ALONG THE TX COAST WILL LEAD TO CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE COAST PRODUCING A BETTER SHOT OF PRECIP...SPREADING INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GFS PW`S OF 2.2-2.3" LOOK A BIT OVERDONE SO NOT BITING ON A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL JUST YET BUT WOULDN`T RULE OUT SOME OF THE LOCALIZED VARIETY. ON THURS...A SLOW MOVING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING INTO SE TX PROVIDING ANOTHER FOCUS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OR SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRY AIR SHOULD GIVE THE FRONT ITS NEEDED PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN AND SETTING UP A NICE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. 47 && THE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN HOW MUCH WATER WILL PILE UP ALONG THE COAST. EAST WINDS OF ABOUT 15 KNOTS HAVE DRIVEN THE TIDES TO BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FEET ABOVE THE PREDICTED TODAY. A MORE EAST- NORTHEAST DIRECTION WILL LIKELY ADD BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 FEET TO THAT NUMBER. SEAS OFF THE COAST WILL PROBABLY APPROACH 7 FEET BEYOND 20 NM. FOR NOW THE WINDS APPEAR TO BE MORE EAST THAN EAST-NORTHEAST. FOR THAT REASON...FEEL THAT THE TIDE LEVELS WILL ONLY GET TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICTED HEIGHTS. WITH THE WEAKENING WIND FIELD ON THURSDAY...THE SEAS AND TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. 40 && .1259 PM AVIATION... SAME SITUATION FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD AS THE PREVIOUS WITH ONSHORE WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO HELPING TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION LAYER ALOFT AT 700MB. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS THE MAIN HAZARD. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FROM KIAH NORTH TO KUTS AND NORTHWEST TO KCLL. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 15Z. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 84 70 82 68 / 10 50 20 60 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 72 84 72 82 72 / 20 40 20 60 40 GALVESTON (GLS) 75 82 75 82 75 / 30 40 60 60 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$