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Great Divide Workshop

The National Weather Service Offices in Great Falls and Missoula will sponsor the 11th Annual Great Divide Workshop October 2-4, 2007 in Great Falls, Montana.


The conference is tentatively scheduled to begin 1 PM on October 2nd and end at noon on October 4th. These times will allow many people to use the 2nd and 4th as travel days, however a block of rooms will be available from the night of the 1st to the night of the 4th.

The focus of the Great Divide Workshop is on the forecast challenges faced in the Northern Rockies and the Western High Plains. The theme of this year's workshop is on Climate Change, with an emphasis on the science, and potential impacts in the region. We hope to make this workshop an excellent means to share and gather new ideas ranging from improving communications with our NWS customers, to forecast techniques in the Northern Rockies nad Western High Plains.

The workshop will be held at the Hampton Inn in Great Falls (Phone: 406-453-2675). The Hampton Inn is conveniently located off I-15 in the Great Falls Marketplace; several restaurants, shopping, and entertainment options are within walking distance. The Hampton Inn offers free transportation to and from the airport, as well as a free continental breakfast. A block of rooms has been reserved at a rate of $60.00 per night ($10 extra per additional person) by mentioning the National Weather Service. Reservations must be made by September 1st to ensure this rate.

The deadline for Abstracts is September 1st, 2007.

A banquet is scheduled for the evening of October 3rd at Tony Roma's across the street from the hotel. Fees for the banquet, which is buffet style with a cash bar, will be collected on the first day during registration.

Tuesday – 10/02/2007

11th Annual Great Divide Workshop

Great Falls, Montana

October 2-4, 2007

 



Tuesday – 10/02/2007

                                                                                  

                       

Session I (Session Chair: Gene Petrescu)

 

1:00 PM           Opening Remarks

                                    Bob Diaz, Acting Deputy Director  

NWS Western Region Headquarters  Salt Lake City, UT

                                    Michael Mercer, Meteorologist-in-Charge  NWS Great Falls, MT

 

1:15 PM           Workshop Logistics

                                    Gene Petrescu, Science & Operations Officer  NWS Missoula, MT

 

1:20 PM          NOAA / NWS Climate Products

                                    Andrea Bair, Climate Services Program Manager

NWS Western Region Headquarters  Salt Lake City, UT

 

1:40 PM           The latest from the WR Climate Change Technical Advisory Committee

                                    Virgil Middendorf, Information Technology Officer  NWS Billings, MT

 

2:00 PM           NOAA plans for an emerging climate information service

                                    Hannah Campbell, Regional Program Manager  NOAA Climate Office

Silver Spring, MD

           

2:15 PM           CoCoRaHs in Montana

                                    John Pulasky, State CoCoraHS Coordinator and Broadcaster 

Northern Broadcasting Network - Billings, MT

 

2:30 PM                                               – Break –

 

Session II (Session Chair: Connie Thomson)

           

2:40 PM           QPF Verification

                                    Tim Barker, Science & Operations Officer  NWS Boise, ID

                       

3:00 PM           GFE Temperature forecasting

                                    Les Colin, Senior Forecaster  NWS Boise, ID

 

3:20 PM           Gridded verification techniques for precipitation-related elements in NWS Western Region

                                    Ken Pomeroy, Verification Program Leader

 NWS Western Region Headquarters  Salt Lake City, UT

           

3:35 PM           The Northern Rockies Mesoscale Model NRMM

                                    Don Morton, Professor Dept. of Computer Science

University of Montana  Missoula, MT

Gene Petrescu, Science & Operations Officer  NWS Missoula, MT

                       

3:55 PM           Poster Session 1  & Break 

                                    Ed Kurdy, Hydrometeorological Technician  NWS Great Falls, MT

 

Session III (Session Chair: John Blank)

                       

4:10 PM           Using Satellite to Better Understand Nocturnal Temperature Distributions

                                    Don Moore, Science & Operations Officer  NWS Billings, MT

                                    Gene Petrescu, Science & Operations Officer  NWS Missoula, MT

                       

4:30 PM           Impact of the Northern Annular Mode on Cool Season Precipitation Patterns in the

Western United States

                        Stephanie McAfee, Graduate Student  University of Arizona  Tucson, AZ

           

4:50 PM           Looking at High-Impact Weather and Product and Service Needs from a Local

Perspective

                                    Paul Hirschberg, D. Hilderbrand, I. Leveson, C. Woods, A. Bleistein

                                    National Weather Service Office of Science and Technology - Silver Spring, MD

           

5:10 PM           WAS*IS

Tanja Fransen, Warning Coordination Meteorologist  NWS Glasgow, MT

 

5:30 PM                                               – Adjourn –

 



Wednesday – 10/03/2007

                                                                                   

 

Session IV (Session Chair: Jim Brusda)

                       

8:00 AM          NWS Western Water Supply Services

                                    Kevin Werner, Hydrologic Science Program Leader 

NWS Western Region Headquarters  Salt Lake City, UT

 

8:20 AM          Tracking Drought Stays the Same Even if the Climate Changes

                                    Meghan Sittler, Research and Outreach Specialist

National Drought Mitigation Center - Lincoln, NE

 

8:50 AM          A Watershed Model for the South Fork Flathead River Basin Upstream from

                        Hungry Horse Dam, Montana

                                    Katherine Chase, Hydrologist  US Geological Survey - Helena, MT

 

9:05 AM                                              – Break –

 

9:15 AM          PRISM: The New Climate Mapping Paradigm

                                    Jan Curtis, Applied Climatologist 

USDA-NRCS National Water and Climate Center - Portland, OR

 

9:45 AM          SNOTEL data and trends

                                    Roy Kaiser, Water Supply Specialist 

National Resources Conservation Service - Bozeman, MT

 

10:15 AM                                            – Break –

 

Session V (Session Chair: John Blank)

 

10:30 AM        The Evidence for Climate Change: Observations and Modeling

                                    Keynote Speaker: Dave Easterling, Chief, Scientific Services Division

National Climatic Data Center - Asheville, NC

 

11:15 AM        Climate Model Projections for the Northern Rockies and the Western High Plains

                                    Joellen Russell, Asst. Professor Biogeochemical Dynamics

University of Arizona - Tucson, AZ

 

11:35 AM        The Crown of the Continent

                                    Rick Graetz, Senior Lecturer  University of Montana - Missoula, MT

 

12:00 PM                                             - Lunch - (on your own)

 

Session VI (Session Chair: Gene Petrescu)

 

1:20 PM           Project Phoenix - Optimizing the Man / Machine Mix in High-Impact Weather Forecasts

            Pat McCarthy, Severe Weather Program Supervisor

Meteorological Service of Canada - Winnipeg, MB

 

1:40 PM           The Role of Ice Motion in the Response of Glaciers to Climate Change

Keynote Speaker: Joel Harper, Asst. Professor Dept. of Geology

University of Montana -Missoula, MT

 

2:20 PM           Learning from the Past:  Long-term Perspectives on Climate Change Impacts

                                    Steve Gray, Wyoming State Climatologist

Wyoming State Climate Office - Laramie, WY

 

2:40 PM                                               – Break –

 

 

Session VII (Session Chair: Jenn Via)

 

2:50 PM           Is Western Montana the Epicenter for Climate Change?

                                    Gene Petrescu, Science & Operations Officer  NWS Missoula, MT

 

3:10 PM           Are the wells going dry? Wells and climate-the experiment continues

                                    Tom Patton, Senior Research Hydrologist

Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology  Butte, MT

 

3:35 PM           Is Some of the Reported Climate Change Just Inconsistent Data?

                                    Phil Farnes, Hydrologist  Snowcap Hydrology - Bozeman, MT

 

4:05 PM                                               – Break –

 

4:20 PM           Lightning Prediction and Use of Lightning Climatologies at the Storm                                        

                        Prediction Center

                                    Phillip Bothwell, Senior Development Meteorologst

NWS Storm Prediction Center - Norman, OK

 

4:50 PM           Poster Session 2

                                    Don Britton, Information Technology Officier - NWS Great Falls, MT

                                    Dave Bernhardt, Science & Operations Officer - NWS Great Falls, MT

                                    Jan Curtis, Applied Climatologist

USDA-NRCS National Water and Climate Center - Portland, OR

                                    Matt Solum, Forecaster - NWS Billings, MT

                                    Liz  Stoppkotte, Meteorologist Intern - NWS Billings, MT

 

5:30 PM                                               – Adjourn –

 

 

6:30 PM           Banquet – Tony Roma’s (Registration and pre-payment required)

                                    Keynote Speaker - Joel Harper, University of Montana

 



Thursday – 10/04/2007

                                                                               

 

Session VIII (Session Chair: Mike Johnson)

                       

8:00 AM          Climatology of Elevated Thunderstorms in the Western United States with

                        Forecasting Applications

                        Alex Tardy, Senior Forecaster - NWS Salt Lake City, UT

 

8:20 AM          An Observational Analysis of a Long-Lived Supercell Thunderstorm

                                    Matt Ziebell, Forecaster - NWS Glasgow, MT

 

8:40 AM          Analysis of the 17 June 2007 Nocturnal Supercell Outbreak

                                    Matt Solum, Forecaster - NWS Billings, MT

 

9:00 AM          Severe Convective Wind Events across South Central Montana

                                    Liz Stoppkotte, Meteorologist Intern - NWS Billings, MT

                                    Don Moore, Science & Operations Officer - NWS Billings, MT

 

9:20 AM                                              – Break –

 

9:30 AM          ENSO Monitoring and Prediction

                                    Michelle L'Heureux, Meteorologist  NWS Climate Prediction Center

Camp Springs , MD

 

9:50 AM          CPC Extended Range Forecasting

                                    Anthony Artusa, Meteorologist  NWS Climate Prediction Center - Camp Springs, MD

 

10:20 AM        Local WRF Downslope Wind Events

                                    Stan Czyzyk, Science & Operations Officer - NWS Las Vegas, NV

 

10:40 AM        An Analysis of strong non-convective southwest wind events at Sheridan,

                        Wyoming

                                    Joe Lester, Forecaster - NWS Billings, MT

 

11:00 AM                                            – Break –

 

Session IX (Session Chair: Connie Thomson)

 

11:15 AM        Heavy Snowfall Associated with a Mesoscale Convergence Zone

                                    Michael Fries, Forecaster - NWS Spokane, WA

 

11:30 AM        Road pavement temperatures and their impact on travel during snow storms

                                    Don Moore, Science & Operations Officer - NWS Billings, MT

                                    Ron Miller, Science & Operations Officer - NWS Spokane, WA

 

11:50 AM        Utilizing Standardized Anomalies to Assess Synoptic Scale Weather Events in the Western U.S

                                    Randall Graham, Science & Operations Officer - NWS Salt Lake City, UT

                                    Richard H. Grumm, Science & Operations Officer -  NWS State College, PA

 

12:05 PM         Are we Still Better Than the Models?

                                    Ron Miller, Science & Operations Officer - NWS Spokane, WA

 

12:20 PM                                             – Adjourn –

 

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