(Sep 16, 2008)

The Middle East and Central Asia regions are currently in the grip of one of the worst droughts in recent history. Widespread failure of rain-fed grain crops occurred in 2008/09, as well as sizable declines in irrigated crop area and yield. Food grain production dropped to some of the lowest levels in decades, spurring governments to enact grain export bans and resulting in abnormally large region-wide grain imports. Should drought continue into the 2009/10 growing season which begins in October, even greater declines in grain production will occur as planted area for both rain-fed and irrigated crops will be severely restricted. A second year of severely reduced grain harvests would imply significantly increased regional grain import requirements as well as posing substantial threats to internal security in countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Afghanistan is the most vulnerable, owing to its lack of financial resources for large-scale grain imports and lack of institutional expertise to plan and execute such imports.

(Sep 12, 2008)

Australia wheat production for 2008/09 is forecast at 22.0 million tons, down 3.0 million or 12percent from last month, but up 9.0 million or 69 percent from last year. Area is estimated at14.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 1.7 million or 13 percent from last year.Seasonal weather conditions have been variable across the major cropping regions of Australia.Since major sowing operations commenced in May, periods of dryness have affected significantareas of the Australia wheat producing states at varying times. In the two largest wheatproducing states of New South Wales (30%) and Western Australia (37%), an unusually dryAugust reduced potential yield. In the southern producing states of Victoria (12%) and SouthAustralia (17%) conditions have been marginally better but more rains are needed to maintaincrop prospects. September precipitation is critical in determining Australia wheat yield. Themaximum value of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for the entire seasonoccurs during September in most growing areas and corresponds to the wheat crop at theflowering and reproductive stage. An historical analysis of satellite-derived Septembervegetation indices and Australia wheat yield reveal strong correlations (r-square 0.80 to 0.82) forthe major wheat producing states of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and WestAustralia. Assuming normal crop development through September, the NDVI model indicatesyield at 1.57 tons per hectare. Australia’s five year average wheat yield is about 1.5 tons perhectare. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071)

(Sep 12, 2008)

The USDA estimates Kazakhstan wheat production for 2008/09 at 12.7 million tons, down 0.8million or 6 percent from last month and down 3.9 million or 23 percent from last year. Area isestimated at 13.3 million hectares against 12.8 million last year. The grain harvest was about 60percent complete as of September 4, and preliminary yield data indicate sharp yield decreases inall three major wheat-production territories of north-central Kazakhstan: Kostanai, Akmola, andNorth Kazakhstan. The reduction in yield is attributed chiefly to persistent dryness, especially inAkmola where yield is likely to drop by about 35 percent from last year. Note, however, that theyear-to-year decreases are exaggerated somewhat by last year’s unusually high harvest, and thatestimated wheat production for 2008/09 is actually 0.2 million tons above the 5-year average.(For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)

(Sep 12, 2008)

The USDA estimates Ukraine wheat production for 2008/09 at 24.5 million tons, up 2.5 millionor 11 percent from last month and up 10.6 million or 76 percent from last year. Area isestimated at 7.0 million hectares, up 1.1 million from last year. Barley output is estimated at12.5 million tons, up 0.5 million or 4 percent from last month and up 6.5 million or 108 percentfrom last year, when severe drought slashed yields of early spring crops. Estimated barley areais unchanged from last year at 4.1 million hectares. Harvest-progress reports from the Ministryof Agriculture cite year-to-year yield increases of approximately 50 percent for wheat and 100percent for barley as of late August. Furthermore, the threat of significant flood-related harvestlosses in western Ukraine never materialized: 99 percent of the sown area of both wheat andbarley was harvested. The abundant rain that boosted yield also contributed to a reduction in grain quality. Usually,but not always, wheat quality is lower in years of high yield, and a shortage of suitable grainstoragefacilities for this year’s wheat crop - the highest in nearly 20 years - will likelyexacerbate the problem. According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agricultural Policyof Ukraine, the share of food-quality wheat (which typically consists of 1st- through 3rd-classwheat) dropped from 40 percent in 2007/08 to 11 percent this year, while the share of 6th classwheat increased from 20 to 54 percent. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)

(Sep 12, 2008)

The USDA estimates European Union (EU) wheat production for 2008/09 at a record 147.2million tons, up 4.0 million or 3 percent from last month and up 27.8 million or 23 percent fromlast year. Area is estimated at a record 26.7 million hectares, boosted by the EU’s decision to'suspend the set-aside requirement for 2008/09 and by the high market price of wheat at planting.Yield is forecast at 5.51 tons per hectare, compared to 4.83 tons per hectare last year and thefive-year average of 5.05 tons per hectare. Winter wheat in southeast Europe benefitted fromboth above-normal spring rainfall and dry harvest weather. A prolonged, wet harvest is nowcomplete in both France and Germany and output was higher than expected, particularly inGermany where dryness had been a serious concern. Poland’s wheat crop also dodged adrought-related yield reduction. Currently, the areas of greatest uncertainty for wheat are theUnited Kingdom and Ireland, where persistent rainfall has delayed harvest and much of the cropremains uncut. Quality has declined in northern Europe and likely will continue droppingbecause of the wet weather that has soaked the region during harvest. (For more information,please contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)

(Sep 12, 2008)

The USDA estimates Russia wheat production for 2008/09 at 60.0 million tons, up 3.0 million or5 percent from last month and up 10.6 million or 21 percent from last year. The month-to-monthincrease in estimated production is based on harvest progress reports from the State StatisticalCommittee indicating remarkably high yields in European Russia. The estimated yield of 2.26tons per hectare exceeds the previous record (set in 1990) by 10 percent. Total wheat area isestimated at 26.6 million hectares against 24.5 million last year. Winter wheat is grown inEuropean Russia and typically comprises about 40 percent of Russia’s total wheat area and 60percent of production, although the share of winter wheat is likely to be higher than average this'season due to a year-to-year increase in planted area combined with outstanding yields.Localized dryness has reduced yields in parts of the Siberian and Ural Districts, which accountfor a large share of Russia’s spring wheat production. Drought was most severe in the Altaiterritory of western Siberia, which typically accounts for nearly 15 percent of the country’s'spring wheat output. The Siberian harvest was roughly 40 percent complete as of September 9.Russia’s barley crop benefited as well from the favorable weather in European Russia.Production for 2008/09 is estimated at 21.0 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month and up5.4 million from last year. Area is estimated at 9.6 million hectares, down 0.2 million from lastyear, and yield is estimated at a record 2.19 tons per hectare. With harvest about 80 percentcomplete, reports indicate a 34-percent year-to-year increase in yield, including an astonishing57-percent jump in the Central District, which produces 25 to 30 percent of Russia’s barley.(For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)

(Sep 12, 2008)

The USDA forecasts Argentine wheat production for 2008/2009 at 12.5 million tons, down 3.5million tons or 22 percent from last year and down 1 million tons or 7 percent from last month.Area is estimated at 4.5 million hectares, down 1.18 million hectares from last year and down 0.2million hectares from last month, and the lowest level in 12 years. Due to the low estimatedarea, forecast production is also the lowest in 12 years. Yield is forecast at 2.78 tons per hectare,compared to the record high of 2.90 tons per hectare seen in 2005/2006 and the five-year averageof 2.75 tons per hectare. Continued dry conditions this winter has not only hindered wheatplanting but has now placed about one-third of the crop at jeopardy during the sensitive early'stages of crop emergence and early growth. Temperatures were above normal during much ofthe winter, but recent cold weather may have resulted in frost damage in many parts of the wheatgrowing area, especially in late-planted fields. (For more information, please call DeniseMcWilliams at 202-720-0107.)

(Sep 12, 2008)

The USDA estimates European Union corn production for 2008/09 at 58.1 million tons, 0.5million lower than last month but 10.8 million or 22.9 percent higher than last year. Area isestimated at 8.7 million hectares, up nominally from last month but up 0.4 million or 4 percentfrom last year. Yield is estimated at 6.65 tons per hectare, compared to 6.73 tons per hectare lastmonth and 5.65 tons per hectare last year. Estimated production was decreased significantly inthe Balkan countries because summer dryness significantly reduced potential yield. TotalAugust precipitation was particularly low across southeast Europe, drawing down soil moisturelevels. Romania’s corn crop was lowered 0.7 million tons from last month to 7.5 million tons.Bulgaria was lowered 0.2 million tons to 1.2 million tons, and Greece was lowered 0.1 milliontons to 1.5 million tons. Serbia, a Balkan country but a non-member of the EU, also experienceddryness, and estimated corn output was lowered 0.5 million from last month to 6.0 million tons.Meanwhile, a larger-than-expected crop in Germany helped mitigate the Balkan corn losses.USDA estimates German production at 4.9 million tons, up 1.1 million from last year, and areaat 0.5 million hectares, based on official statistics indicating record production and area. Areaincreased significantly in 2008/09 due largely to the EU’s late autumn announcement of'suspending the set-aside requirement, making further winter wheat planting in Germany nearlyimpossible, thereby forcing farmers to increase spring-sown crops, particularly corn. (For moreinformation, please contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)

(Sep 12, 2008)

China’s 2008/09 corn production is estimated at a record 156.0 million tons, up 3.0 million or 2percent from last month and up 4.2 million or 3 percent from last year as higher estimated yieldoffset lower planted area. Corn area is estimated at 27.8 million hectares, unchanged from lastmonth but down 0.2 million from last year. Farmers shifted from corn to soybeans in 2008 inresponse to higher relative profits for soybeans after the poor 2007/08 soybean harvest. Theestimated yield of 5.61 tons per hectare is up 3.5 percent from last year and above the previousrecord set in 2006/07. Very good growing conditions were reported in nearly every corn-producing province this'season. Bumper crops are expected on the North China Plain, which experienced beneficialrainfall, seasonable temperatures, few extreme weather events, and only minor flooding/lodgingproblems in 2008. Record yield and production are expected in Northeast China, where droughtconditions cut yields in 2007/08. Officials in Jilin, Liaoning, and Inner Mongolia reported thatthe crop benefitted from timely and abundant rainfall this year, while a recent crop survey inHeilongjiang revealed generally favorable growing conditions and higher yields than last yeardespite below-normal rainfall in August. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at(202) 690-0133).

(Sep 12, 2008)

The USDA forecasts Mexican corn production for 2008/09 at 24.0 million tons, up 6 percentfrom last year. The year-to-year increase is attributed to higher forecast yields, a slight increasein harvested area, and ideal weather. According to the U.S. agricultural attaché in Mexico,farmers are using better seed varieties and higher sowing density to improve yields. In addition,the country is receiving normal to above-normal monsoon rains. Last year, the country wasimpacted by numerous tropical storms and hurricanes which caused substantial agriculturaldamage. (For more information contact, Arnella Trent at 202-720-0881)

(Sep 12, 2008)

China’s 2008/09 soybean production is estimated at 16.5 million tons, up 0.5 million or 3 percentfrom last month and up 3.0 million or 22 percent from last year’s drought-reduced crop.Soybean area is estimated at 9.4 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.7 millionor 8 percent from last year. High returns after the disappointing 2007/08 harvest and governmentpolicies that encouraged oilseed production led to the increase in planted area. The estimatedyield of 1.76 tons per hectare is up 13 percent from last year and above the 5-year average of1.68 tons per hectare. Heilongjiang is China’s most important soybean growing province, accounting for 37 to 40percent of China’s total soybean output. A recent crop survey in Heilongjiang revealed'significantly higher planted area, very good growing conditions, and higher prospective yieldsthan last year despite a significant rainfall deficit in August in parts of the province. Otherimportant soybean growing provinces in northern and central China experienced generallyfavorable weather throughout the season, and normal yields are expected in these areas. (Formore information, contact Paulette Sandene at (202) 690-0133).

(Sep 04, 2008)

USDA's August forecast for Kenya's 2008/09 corn production is 2.55 million tons, down 0.4 million tons from last year and below the 5-year average of 2.7 million tons. Area is estimated at 1.6 million hectares, down 0.1 million hectares from last year due to insecurity caused by Post-Election Violence (PEV) from January-April this year.

(Aug 29, 2008)

During early July members of USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) traveled through Poland meeting with various agriculture industry professionals, and toured farms, and assessed crop conditions. This report is a summary of the trip, including observations and photographs, and estimates from USDA's August World Agriculture Supply and Demand release.

(Aug 21, 2008)

Analysts from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Washington, with the U.S. agricultural attache in Moscow, conducted July crop-assessment travel in the Siberian District of Russia to assess 2008/09 wheat production prospects and other crop-production issues.

(Aug 12, 2008)

Well-below normal rainfall and winter snowfall across the majority of Afghanistan during late 2007 and early 2008 have led to the worst drought conditions in the past 10 years. Widespread losses of rainfed wheat crops have been observed by international non-governmental organization (NGO) officials across the country's important northern and western growing regions, while the government of Afghanistan has also reported that irrigated crop yields have fallen significantly this year. Owing to the severity of current conditions and the breadth of areas impacted, wheat production in 2008/09 is forecast by USDA at 1.5 million tons, down 2.3 million or 60 percent from last year.