000
FXUS64 KBRO 110209
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
909 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE MENTION OF
POPS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER LEFT SILENT 10 POPS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR ANY STRAY SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
STRATUS BY SUNRISE AS WELL. HIGH CLOUDS FROM HURRICANE NORBERT IN
THE PACIFIC MAY WORK THEIR WAY OVER THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT SO THE
INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOKS OK FOR NOW. OFFSHORE AND
LAGUNA WINDS THAT WERE FORECAST IN THE EARLIER GRID PACKAGE WERE
A BIT ROBUST. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE WHICH
LOWERED THEM TO MORE REASONABLE AND CURRENT OBSERVATION LEVELS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY MVFR
CIGS AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE ON A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WIND. HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC HURRICANE RIDES THE STRONGER UPPER
SOUTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...BOY020 REPORTED WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO
16 WITH SEAS 2 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 3 SECONDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST OVER THE GULF ON SATURDAY CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO
INCREASE.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CAUSING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 131 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008... RIDGING
SC AND ALOFT WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER LOCALLY BEFORE CHANGES BEGIN
TO SHOW UP. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SFC AND ARE
SOUTHERLY ALOFT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT MORE HUMID AIR INTO
THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT OVER ON HIGH TEMPS
RECENTLY...BUT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND WATER TEMPS AROUND 80 WILL
STILL PRODUCE A WEAK SEABREEZE STARTING AS EARLY AS TOMORROW. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL RESULT FROM THIS AND FROM ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS...MAINLY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE MOISTURE HAS BETTER
ESTABLISHED. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...A CUTOFF MIDLEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS ALOFT. AT THAT SAME
TIME...THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US IS EXPECTED TO
FILL AND RACE ACROSS THE US. IT WILL STALL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND
INSTABILITY FROM THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL FOR THE REGION FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  89  76  86 /   0  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          75  89  74  87 /   0  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            72  91  72  87 /   0  20  20  20
MCALLEN              74  91  73  89 /   0  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  92  73  91 /   0  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  85  77  84 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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