Labor force 2006: slowing down and changing composition (EXCERPT), Monthly Labor Review Online, Nov. 1997

Labor force 2006: slowing down and changing composition

Howard N Fullerton, Jr.

The labor force, those persons working or looking for work, is projected to increase by 15 million over the 1996–2006 period, reaching 149 million in 2006.¹ This 11-percent increase is less than the 14-percent increase over the previous 10-year period, 1986–96, when the labor force grew by 16 million.

For women, the rate of growth in the labor force is expected to slow, but it will still increase at a faster rate than that of men. (See table 1.) As a result, women are projected to increase as a portion of the labor force from 46 percent in 1997 to 47 percent in 2006. The number of men in the labor force is projected to grow, but at a slower rate than that in the past as labor force participation for men in most age groups is projected to continue declining. The projected labor force growth will be affected by the aging of the baby-boom generation, persons born between 1946 and 1964. In 2006, the baby-boom cohort will be ages 42 to 60, and this age group will show significant growth over the 1996–2006 period. Race or Hispanic origin groups have shown—and are projected to continue to show—widely varied growth rates because of divergent rates of population growth in the past. The Asian and other group is projected to increase most rapidly. By 2006, the Hispanic labor force is projected to be larger than the black labor force, primarily because of faster population growth.

The youth labor force (aged 16 to 24) is expected to grow more rapidly than the overall labor force for the first time in 25 years. At the same time, the number of persons in the labor force ages 25 to 44 is projected to decrease, as the baby-boom generation continues its inexorable aging.

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Footnotes
¹ The civilian labor force consists of employed and unemployed persons actively seeking work, but does not include any Armed Forces personnel. Historical data for this series are from the Current Population Survey, conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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American work force, 1992-2005. A special issue. November 1993.: Historical trends, 1950-92, and current uncertainties.; The U.S. economy to 2005: framework for BLS projections.; Another look at the labor force.; Industry output and unemployment.; Occupational employment: wide variations in growth.

BLS projections to 2005-A special issue. November 1995.: Appendix: Employment projections methodology.; Industry output and employment projections to 2005.; Occupational employment to 2005.; Summary of BLS projections to 2005.; The U.S. economy to 2005.; The 2005 labor force: growing, but slowly. (Errata: 1996 Mar. 38.)

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