May 29, 2003 (The Editor’s Desk is updated each business day.)

Assessing the 1988-2000 employment growth projections

How accurate were the 1988-2000 employment outlooks that appeared in the 1990-91 Occupational Outlook Handbook?

[Chart data—TXT]

The 1990-91 Handbook categorized projected occupational employment change between 1988 and 2000 with the following descriptors:

Of 338 occupations, 87 had actual employment changes that matched the projected descriptor; another 100 had employment changes that were a single category higher or lower. There were 74 occupations with employment changes that were 2 categories away from the projection; 49 that were 3 categories away, and 16 that were 4 away. There were 12 occupations that had employment changes 5 categories away—occupations projected to grow much faster than average that actually declined, or vice-versa.

These data are from the BLS Employment Projections program, which produces the Occupational Outlook Handbook. More information on the accuracy of employment projections can be found in "The 1988-2000 Employment Projections: How accurate were they?" by Andrew Alpert and Jill Auyer, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Spring 2003.

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