000 AXUS74 KMRX 260028 DGTMRX DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 900 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008 ...DROUGHT WORSENS SLIGHTLY IN EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA... SYNOPSIS... SEPTEMBER RAINS HAVE BEEN SPORADIC AS A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL AMOUNTS, BUT MOST AREAS ARE BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION, THE RAINS THAT HAVE FALLEN HAVE NOT BEEN PROLONGED, BUT FELL IN MOST CASES AT ONE TIME, WHICH MEANS THAT MOST OF IT WAS NOT UTILIZED WELL. ALL GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTIONS ARE APPROXIMATE. D4 (EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN OUTSIDE THE REGION. D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA, AND IN TENNESSEE IN AN AREA ENCLOSED BY A LINE FROM COPPERHILL TO SWEETWATER TO OLIVER SPRINGS TO TAZEWELL TO SNEEDVILLE TO NEAR ERWIN. THIS INCLUDES THE KNOXVILLE METRO AREA. D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EAST TENNESSEE, EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA AS EXPLAINED BELOW. D2 CONDITIONS ALSO COVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN STRIP OF LEE, RUSSELL, AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. THIS AREA INCLUDES MOST OF THE TRI-CITIES METRO AREA OF TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA. D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT EXISTS COVERS A SMALL SLICE OF THE SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS AREA COVERS ALL OR PORTIONS OF MARION, SEQUATCHIE, BLEDSOE, HAMILTON, RHEA, MEIGS, AND MCMINN COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CHATTANOOGA METRO AREA. THIS AREA REMAINS UNCHANGED, BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR THE END OF AUGUST. D1 CONDITIONS ALSO COVER MOST OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) CONDITIONS DO NOT EXIST IN EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... SINCE TROPICAL STORM FAY, LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN IN MOST LOCATIONS IN THE REGION. IN SOME PLACES, NONE AT ALL HAS FALLEN IN OVER TWO WEEKS. SPRINGS, WELLS, AND SMALL STREAMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THAT REBOUNDED IN THE WAKE OF FAY HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS, SOME QUITE DRAMATICALLY. FOR EXAMPLE, STREAMS FLOWING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE D3 AREA OF EAST TENNESSEE ARE BACK DOWN TO NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS FOR THE DATE. LARGER RIVERS RESPONDED, TOO, BUT ARE ON THE WAY BACK DOWN. THEIR FALL IS NOT AS APPARENT AS THE SMALLER STREAMS BUT MANY ARE ALREADY IN THE BOTTOM QUARTER OF FLOWS FOR THE DATE AND DROPPING. SOME WATER DISTRICTS ARE ON LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. FOR INFORMATION ON LOCAL WATER RESTRICTIONS, PLEASE CALL YOUR WATER BOARD. NO WIDESPREAD FIRE RESTRICTIONS ARE KNOWN TO EXIST. CONTACT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR PERMITS. SEE STATE WEBSITES AT THE END OF THIS STATEMENT. CLIMATE SUMMARY... RAINFALL AT INDIVIDUAL POINTS IS NOT ALWAYS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF AN AREA`S PRECIPITATION. LONG TERM RAINFALL OVER LARGE AREAS IS A MORE REALISTIC REPRESENTATION A REGION`S RAIN SITUATION. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE MAIN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OBSERVATION POINTS FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2008: SITE RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM CHATTANOOGA 70.86 95.30 -24.44 74 KNOXVILLE 67.51 84.74 -17.23 80 OAK RIDGE 68.24 96.11 -27.87 71 TRI-CITIES 49.69 73.33 -23.64 68 NWS MORRISTOWN 55.67 79.12 -23.45 70 RAIN TOTALS OVER LARGE AREAS SUCH AS RESERVOIR DRAINAGE BASINS IS A MUCH BETTER INDICATOR OF AN AREA`S "RAIN HEALTH" THAN SIMPLE POINT TOTALS. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE TVA BASINS IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER DRAINAGE FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2008: BASIN RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM SOUTH HOLSTON 59.20 77.29 -18.09 77 WATAUGA 62.10 81.70 -19.60 76 BOONE 59.21 78.88 -19.67 75 CHEROKEE 56.93 76.47 -19.54 74 DOUGLAS 60.09 82.30 -22.21 73 FONTANA 73.88 101.86 -27.98 73 NORRIS 58.47 80.00 -21.53 73 MELTON HILL 62.98 86.25 -23.27 73 CHATUGE 66.38 82.23 -15.85 81 NOTTELY 75.50 95.13 -19.63 79 HIWASSEE 68.57 99.42 -30.85 69 FT. LOUDOUN/TELLICO 59.19 84.57 -25.38 70 WATTS BARR 67.05 88.87 -21.82 75 CHICKAMAUGA 59.54 92.07 -32.53 65 NICKAJACK 58.61 93.00 -34.39 63 GUNTERSVILLE 57.45 94.13 -36.68 61 AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION DURING THE LAST WEEK HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THROUGH ABOUT OCTOBER 2, TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT NORMAL. A WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MAY BRING SOME RAIN ON THE WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER 26, BUT APART FROM THIS, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY. THIS IS NORMAL FOR THIS SEASON OF THE YEAR. OCTOBER IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT NORMAL, WHICH MEANS WARM AND DRY. FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY, CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE FOR SLIGHTLY WARM AND DRY. WE ARE ENTERING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST PART OF THE YEAR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS USUALLY TROPICAL STORMS THAT PASS UP THIS WAY. TROPICAL STORM SEASON OFFICIALLY CONTINUES UNTIL OCTOBER 31, BUT THE PEAK IS WELL PAST. THE LATEST OUTLOOK (ISSUED SEPTEMBER 18) IS FOR THE DROUGHT TO CONTINUE IN MOST OF THE REGION, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE NARROW STRIP IN TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA LINES. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... DURING THE LAST WEEK STREAMS IN THE REGION HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY. SMALLER FEEDER STREAMS ARE THE MOST APPARENT, WITH LARGER RIVERS SLOWER TO RESPOND. THE TENNESSEE RIVER, BEING CONTROLLED FOR ITS ENTIRE LENGTH, IS ALWAYS THE LAST TO RESPOND. THE OUTLOOK FOR LARGE TRIBUTARIES OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH AUTUMN IS FOR A LESS THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM AND THE NUMBER OF HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE HYDROGRAPHY OF THE INDIVIDUAL STREAM. THINGS LIKE LOCAL GEOGRAPHY, WHETHER SINKHOLES ACCOUNT FOR MUCH UNDERGROUND STORAGE, LOCAL LAND USE, FLORA, AND SO FORTH, WILL ALSO HAVE AN INFLUENCE. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR BEFORE OCTOBER 16, 2008 DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. IF NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES OCCUR IN THE DROUGHT SITUATION, IT WILL BE LATER THAN SOONER. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AND KEEP YOU ABREAST. RELATED WEB SITES... FOR ONE-STOP SHOPPING ON THE DROUGHT IN THE REGION GO TO HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX/HYDRO/DROUGHT07/MAIN.PHP OR YOU CAN GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV THEN CLICK ON THE EAST TENNESSEE REGION, AND THEN CLICK ON THE DROUGHT INFORMATION LINK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MORRISTOWN, TENNESSEE HOME PAGE. YOU MAY ALSO VISIT WWW.TVA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LAKES LEVELS, STREAMFLOWS, AND RAINFALL IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY SYSTEM. STREAMFLOW DATA CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AT HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT AND THEN CLICKING ON YOUR STATE OF INTEREST. ADDITIONAL LONG TERM STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED AT THE NWS MORRISTOWN "ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES" WEBSITE AT HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MRX THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY HAS FIRE INFORMATION AT HTTP://BURNSAFETN.ORG THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY HAS FIRE INFORMATION AT WWW.DOF.VIRGINIA.GOV THE NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF FOREST RESOURCES IS LOCATED AT WWW.DFR.STATE.NC.US FOR SPECIFIC DATA, DROUGHT INDICES, AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT PICTURE WITH CLICKABLE ZOOMING, GO TO HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... APPRECIATION FOR THE DATA IN THIS DOCUMENT GOES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY (TVA), UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS), THE STATES OF TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA, THE COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA, THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE), THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY, THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY, THE NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF FOREST RESOURCES, THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE (NPS), THE NATIONAL FOREST SERVICE (NFS), THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA AT LINCOLN FOR HOSTING THE DROUGHT MONITOR WEBSITE, AND NUMEROUS COUNTY, CITY, AND UTILITY OFFICIALS. ALSO, THANKS TO VARIOUS MEDIA OUTLETS INCLUDING TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS AND NEWSPAPERS, FOR ASKING THE QUESTIONS THE DRIVE THE GATHERING OF DATA AND INFORMATION ON DROUGHT IMPACTS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... FOR MORE INFORMATION OR FOR MEDIA INTERVIEWS PLEASE CONTACT: BRIAN BOYD SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST/METEOROLOGIST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 5974 COMMERCE BLVD. MORRISTOWN, TN 37814 423-586-1964 (MEDIA ONLY; FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE) 423-586-2296 (ALL OTHER CALLS; MAY GET VOICE MAIL) 423-586-6429 (FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE, NON-MEDIA CALLS, IF 2296 IS NOT AVAILABLE) EMAIL: BRIAN.BOYD@NOAA.GOV WEBSITE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX NOTE: IN THE EVENT THE ABOVE PERSON IS NOT AVAILABLE, OTHER STAFF MEMBERS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP YOU.