000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230924 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE SEP 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 05N IS MOVING W 15 KT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ITS CURRENT POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON EXTRAPOLATION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 94W N OF 06N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG OR JUST W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W-97W...STEERED BY STRONG MID-UPPER NE/E FLOW. SCATTERED CONVECTION LIES NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ. WHILE SHORTWAVE IR IMAGES REVEAL MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 12N92W...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SFC LOW AS SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP DATA SUGGEST UNIFORM SW TO W FLOW. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N85W 08N105W 09N120W 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... THE MID AND UPPER PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 18N130W...ANOTHER HIGH JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N128W...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD DRY STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN ALLOWING FOR TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THE SFC...A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N135W AND A QUASI-STATIONARY 1010 MB LOW IS SITUATED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N122W. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE 20 KT NE TRADES OVER THE W WATERS. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE N TO NW WINDS ARE OFF THE BAJA COAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W-124W...BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHORTLY. S TO SW SWELLS (16-18 SEC PERIODS) ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 115W AND 133W. THESE SWELLS WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 9 FT MAINLY S OF 10N E OF 130W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. E OF 110W... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED NM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO NEAR 16N107W HAS BEEN WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION...CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 05Z SHOWED ONLY A SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO 20 KT MAINLY W OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WIDESPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING DEEPENED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W...DISCUSSED ABOVE. $$ CANGIALOSI
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