Hurricane HERNAN

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HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 08 2008
 
AFTER A NOTICEABLE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CDO FEATURE NOW PRESENT WITH A HINT OF A RAGGED
EYE WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  WITH DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES NOW
AT T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...HERNAN IS
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AMONGST OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS
AND...ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...HERNAN SHOULD REMAIN OVER 26
CELSIUS SSTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THIS BASIS...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT HERNAN SHOULD CONTINUE STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER IT REACHES COOLER
WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS. 
GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION APPARENT IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND NO APPARENT HINDRANCES TO STRENGTHENING...THE NEW
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND ABOVE NEARLY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 275/11...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
HEADING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER...AFTER REVIEWING A HOST OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL
CENTERS ARE NOW VERTICALLY ALIGNED.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE OFFICIAL
TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THEREAFTER...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO BE STEERED MORE WITH
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...ON A MORE WESTWARD AND POSSIBLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 14.7N 119.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 14.8N 121.6W    75 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 15.1N 123.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 16.1N 126.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 135.0W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/KIMBERLAIN
 
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