Tropical Storm HERNAN

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TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008
800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2008
 
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GRADUALLY
IMPROVED THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
SAB AND TAFB ARE T2.5 OR 35 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS AN UPGRADE TO 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HERNAN BECOMES THE EIGHTH NAMED STORM TO
FORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS YEAR.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER
ESTIMATES. THIS RESULTS IN A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 295/12. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
AS HERNAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE HERNAN TO SLOW DOWN IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HERNAN'S HEADING...BUT IS NOT AS FAST AS BEFORE. AS A
RESULT...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE CORRECTED
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING HERNAN WILL
RELAX IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HERNAN
REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH CALLS FOR HERNAN TO REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
STEADY WEAKENING. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 13.8N 112.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 14.5N 114.1W    45 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 15.2N 116.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 15.8N 118.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 16.4N 119.9W    65 KT
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 17.6N 123.2W    55 KT
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     12/0000Z 19.0N 130.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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