Tropical Depression ALMA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT ALMA HAS
BECOME DISORGANIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS.  THE CENTER
PASSED NEAR TEGUCIGALPA A FEW HOURS AGO WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS
REPORTED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...WITH
THESE WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING ONLY IN BANDS OF SQUALLS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 345/10.  BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM SURVIVES LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THE
ENVELOPE...CALLING FOR ALMA TO BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS BEFORE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE FASTER
THAN...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

SINCE ALMA IS FORECAST TO MOVE MOSTLY OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12
HR AND DISSIPATE BY 48 HR.  THAT BEING SAID...ALMA IS UNDER A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR.  SO...IF THE CYCLONE SPENDS
MORE TIME OVER WATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS 
SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NEXT 12-24
HR.  THIS IS MOST LIKELY ALMA OR ITS REMNANTS...BUT IT ALSO COULD
BE A SECOND LOW FORMING IN THE BROAD MONSOON FLOW OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA.

DESPITE THE FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION...THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING
HAZARD TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 14.6N  87.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 15.9N  88.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 17.3N  89.2W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 18.3N  90.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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