Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Get Storm Info
   Satellite | Radar
   Aircraft Recon
   Advisory Archive
   Experimental
   Mobile Products
   E-mail Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   GIS Data | RSS XML/RSS logo
   Help with Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic and E Pacific
   Forecast and
   Analysis Tools

   Help with Marine
Hurricane Awareness
   Be Prepared | Learn
   Frequent Questions
   AOML Research
   Hurricane Hunters
   Saffir-Simpson Scale
   Forecasting Models
   Eyewall Wind Profiles
   Glossary/Acronyms
   Storm Names
   Breakpoints
Hurricane History
   Seasons Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
   Climatology
   Most Extreme
About the NHC
   Mission and Vision
   Personnel | Visitors
   NHC Virtual Tour
   Library
   Joint Hurr Testbed
   The NCEP Centers
Contact UsHelp
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Depression LOWELL


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008
800 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2008
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LOWELL'S
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS MADE A JOG TO THE EAST AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND
HAS NOW EMERGED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG
CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -86C HAVE DEVELOPED OVER AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...INDICATING THAT LOWELL MAKE HANG ON AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT
AND T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE
STANDARD GUST DIFFERENTIAL WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT DUE TO THE STRONG
CONVECTION THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/09. ONCE LOWELL COMPLETELY CLEARS
THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA...THOSE MINOR STEERING EFFECTS SHOULD BE
ELIMINATED AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A BASE COURSE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THEN TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER THAT AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE STATE OF
SINALOA IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS MODELS.
 
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY NARROW WIDTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
LOWELL'S FORWARD SPEED...THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...AND EVEN THEN IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT LOWELL WOULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE
LANDFALL OCCURS. HOWEVER...THE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THAT HAS
DEVELOPED COULD EASILY PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE.

THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 23.8N 109.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 25.0N 108.7W    25 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 26.5N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 36HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
NHC Active Storms  -  Atlantic and E Pacific Marine  -  Storm Archives
Hurricane Awareness  -  How to Prepare  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Prediction Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Sep-2008 19:03:52 GMT