National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification (Text)

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National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification (Text)

Updated 21 May 2008

Introduction
Forecast verification procedures
Annual NHC verification reports
Official five-year mean errors and distributions
Official error trends
Model error trends
NHC official forecast error database
Performance measures and goals
References

3. Annual NHC verification reports

Links are given below to the historical annual NHC verification reports from 1968-2007. The statistics contained in these reports were based on forecast and verification procedures in place at the time each report was written, which often differ from current practices (e.g., depressions were not verified in these annual reports until 2001). In addition, there have been changes in the tropical cyclone best track database over the years (e.g., the upgrade of 1992's Hurricane Andrew from category 4 to category 5). Consequently, the verification statistics that appear in these annual reports may differ from those presented elsewhere in these pages based on current practices and datasets.

								1968	1969
1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979
1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989
1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007