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Now available in PDF format: Abstract Book [7.4 Mb] (posted 10 November 2005)

Abstracts for Speakers: Session 4

Coastal Management: Application of Climate Science (CO)

Sub-Theme 2: Climate and Coastal Ecosystems: Supporting Adaptive Management

CO2.1

Understanding the Future of Coastal Wetlands in the Face of Sea-Level Rise:
Lessons from Coastal Louisiana

Denise J. Reed, Department of Geology & Geophysics, University of New Orleans, djreed@uno.edu

The continued existence of extensive coastal wetlands in Louisiana, even in the face of sea level rise and locally high rates of subsidence, illustrates the resilience of these ecosystems. Remaining marshes maintain their position relative to tide through a combination of organic matter accumulation and periodic inputs of sediments from storms. Hurricanes such as Andrew and Katrina import sediments to brackish and salt marshes providing a much needed supplement to the vertical building process. In more organic substrates, hurricanes can physically disturb marshes but in fresher systems regeneration is possible. The marshes that remain in Louisiana show that it is possible to maintain suitable conditions for vegetative growth even in the face of accelerated sea-level rise if hydrologic conditions allow natural processes to continue. Major land loss in Louisiana has resulted from human manipulation and alteration of riverine and tidal flows. The lesson for other areas from those wetlands that survive in Louisiana is that marshes can survive sea-level rise if we give them a fighting chance.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

CO2.2

SELVA-MANGRO: An Integrated Landscape and Stand Simulation Model for Predicting Mangrove Forest Growth and Distribution across the Everglades Coastal Margin under Changing Climate

Thomas Doyle, U.S. Geological Survey, National Wetlands Research Center, Lafayette, LA, USA, tom_doyle@usgs.gov

Kenneth Krauss, U.S. Geological Survey, National Wetlands Research Center, Lafayette, LA, USA, Marcus Melder, IAP World Services, Lafayette, LA,USA

Jason Sullivan, IAP World Services, Lafayette, LA, USA

Andrew From, IAP World Services, Lafayette, LA, USA

The near sea level elevation and flat slope of the protected Everglades ecosystem supports one of the largest contiguous tracts of mangrove forests and punctuates their potential vulnerability to rising sea level, hurricane strikes, and changes in freshwater runoff. These forests are subject to coastal and inland processes of hydrology largely controlled by regional climate, natural disturbances, and water management decisions. Mangroves are highly productive ecosystems and provide valued habitat for fisheries and shorebirds. Global warming has been projected to increase sea water temperatures and expansion that may accelerate sea level rise and increase tropical storm intensity that may further compound ecosystem stress of these coastal
systems. Increases in relative sea level will eventually raise saturation and salinity conditions at ecotonal boundaries where mangroves are likely to advance or encroach upslope into freshwater marsh/swamp habitats.

A landscape simulation model, SELVA MANGRO, was developed as a decision support tool to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and freshwater restoration on the quality and distribution of future mangrove habitat. The SELVAMANGRO model predicts changes in habitat type and environmental conditions of individual land units (1 sq ha) on an annual basis for the simulated landscape. MANGRO is an individual based model composed of a set of species based functions predicting the growth, establishment, and death of individual trees. MANGRO predicts the tree and gap replacement process of natural forest succession as influenced by stand structure and environmental conditions.

Model applications were conducted to forecast mangrove migration under projected climate change scenarios of sea level rise for the Everglades coastal margin with and without hydrologic restoration. A digital elevation model for south Florida parks and refuges comprising the Everglades was developed to predict the rate and fate of coastal inundation from sea level rise over the next century. Sea level rise was modeled as a function of mean annual tide records for Key West, FL projected into the 21st century with the addition of curvilinear rates of eustatic sea level based on low and high SLR estimates from IPCC findings. Model results show that species and forest cover will change over space and time with increasing tidal inundation across the simulated landscape for all sea level rise scenarios. Model runs show that freshwater marsh/swamp habitats will be displaced as the tidal prism increases over time and as it moves upslope. Under these modeling assumptions, mangrove habitat will increase over the next century under
climate change and conversely, freshwater marsh/swamp is expected to decrease.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

CO2.3

Using Climate Change to Information to Support Adaptive Coastal Conservation

Lynne Hale, Global Marine Initiative, The Nature Conservancy, lhale@tnc.org

The very essence of conservation is that it is enduring—that resources and places are maintained in their natural state "forever." Doing conservation in an ever-changing environment like the coast has presents special challenges. Natural climatic events and physical processes are always shaping this dynamic environment—beaches erode and accrete, marshes are submerged or migrate inland as sea level rises, hurricanes periodically cause massive damage to coastal habitats and coral reefs, changing rainfall patterns and river flows effect estuarine circulation patterns. This presentation reviews how The Nature Conservancy is attempting to use climate-related information in its conservation planning work, then will discuss the very real challenges faced by conservation practitioners in adapting conservation practices to a more variable and rapidly changing climate.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

CO2.4

An Information Guide for Strategic Management of Coral Reefs in a Changing Climate

Jordan West, Environmental Protection Agency, U.S.A., west.jordan@epa.gov

Paul Marshall, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Australia

Heidi Schuttenberg, James Cook University, Australia

Roger Griffis, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S.A.

This presentation will review preliminary findings of A Reef Manager's Guide to Coral Bleaching, a draft information source for managers and other decision-makers on strategies for management of coral reef ecosystems in the context of climate change. The Guide represents a collaborative effort led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority to compile contributions from across the coral reef stakeholder community – including coral reef managers and research scientists from U.S. and international governments, academia, and non-governmental organizations. The collective information relates to the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's efforts under Goal 4 (understanding the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes) and Goal 5 (exploring the uses and identifying the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change).

The biological diversity and productivity of the world's coral reefs support fisheries, underpin dive tourism industries, protect coastal communities from storm waves and erosion, and contain a largely untapped wealth of biochemical resources. Yet over the past several decades, pollution, habitat destruction, disease and unsustainable fishing have led to declines in reef condition worldwide. Against this backdrop of conventional stresses, the threat of mass coral bleaching due to climate-related temperature anomalies has recently emerged as an area of critical concern.

The scientific consensus is that tropical seas will continue to warm over coming decades, increasing both the probability and severity of mass bleaching events. These scenarios pose particular challenges, since anomalously warm sea temperatures are beyond the control of coral reef managers. Yet, there are actions that managers can take to boost the long term resilience of coral reefs to climate variability and change. The global research and management community has begun to develop strategies for (1) identifying climate-resilient areas and enhancing their protection and (2) implementing strategies to boost ecosystem resilience. A Reef Manager's Guide to Coral Bleaching brings together the latest scientific knowledge and collective management experience to assist managers with information on how to respond effectively to mass coral bleaching events. It synthesizes science and management information, explores emerging strategies, and informs the ways managers deal with the complex human dimensions of these issues with an emphasis on pragmatic, science-based suggestions for adaptive management of coral reefs in the face of a changing climate.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

CO2.5

A Resource Manager's Perspective on Supporting Adaptive Management

Billy Causey, Manager, Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (NOAA), billy.causey@noaa.gov

Ocean and coastal resource managers must routinely make decisions related to the protection, use and restoration of the coastal zone within their jurisdictions. To make appropriate decisions, these managers need information on a variety of parameters related to climate change. The purpose of this presentation is to both identify the types of information needed by resource managers to make decisions related to protection, use and restoration of marine resources, as well as to provide feedback to scientists about the application of their research to the management community. The presentation will draw on and summarize the preceding presentations in the coastal component of Session 4.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]