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Now available in PDF format: Abstract Book [7.4 Mb] (posted 10 November 2005)

Abstracts for Speakers: Session 4

Energy Systems Management: Application of Climate Science (EN)

Sub-Theme 1: Science Informing Operational and Short-Term Decision Making

EN1.1

Climate Science Applications to Support Short-Term, Operational Decision Making
for a Utility and for Financial Commodities Trading

David D'Arcangelo, Cinergy Corporation, Cincinnati, OH, David.D'Arcangelo@Cinergy.com

Energy companies engaged in the financial transaction and provision of electricity and natural gas to consumers are highly susceptible to short and medium term weather changes. Moreover, the increased volatility of energy prices in recent years coupled with the rising demand from the residential sector mandates more accurate forecasts of system load in order to take advantage of or be hedged against extreme events. More accurate prediction of temperature, cloud cover, dew point and tropical events pays large dividends in the financial markets and in being able to serve customers reliably. Advances in 1-15 day forecasts would be have the most immediate impact; while more accurate skill at ranges of out to 3 months would enable better long-term planning. More complex statistical forecasts should be promoted at all forecasts ranges to allow energy companies to simulate scenarios of system demand and price on various weather events.

EN1.2

NASA Satellite Measurements and Modeling Contributions to Decision Support in the Energy Sector

Richard S. Eckman, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, Richard.S.Eckman@nasa.gov

Paul W. Stackhouse, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA

Mayra N. Montrose, NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC

The Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project, conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center, seeks to expand the use of global weather and solar energy information in energy-related industries by interacting with partners to benchmark NASA research data sets derived from the analysis of historical and current observations. Four of these industries have been identified and targeted for use of NASA analysis and modeling data:

• Renewable Energy Production: assist energy producers in locating optimum sites for Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs).
• Building Design: assist architects and engineers in understanding the seasonal environment a building must endure and design to optimize energy usage.
• Biomass Fuel Development: assist farmers in planning, monitoring, and predicting yield of various fuel crops.
• Energy Utilities: assist utility companies in the decision-making of buying and selling power.

The POWER project contribution consists of developing pathways of environmental information that assist designers and planners to develop decision support systems (DSS) which are optimized for their local weather and climate conditions and to assist planners and managers in the maintenance and operation of these systems. These elements are specifically identified in both the Climate Change Science and Technology Programs' (CCSP/CCTP) strategic plans and contribute to the priorities of the United States Group on Earth Observations, the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, and the G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action on Climate Change, Clean Energy and Sustainable Development.

The POWER project uses the NASA Surface Solar Energy (SSE) data set and adds near-real time and forecasted datasets to the historical datasets. The project has developed prototype pathways to deliver data important to renewable energy system design in partnership with Natural Resources Canada's renewable energy DSS, RETScreen, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables (HOMER) DSS, and the photovoltaic sizing tool, SolarSizer, maintained by SoL Energy. These activities have also contributed to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA). SWERA provides solar and wind resource data and geographic information assessment tools to the public and private sectors in 13 developing countries.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

EN1.3

Climate Forecasts for Improving Management of Energy and Hydropower Resources in the Western U.S.

Anthony Westerling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), awesterling@ucsd.edu

Eric Alfaro, SIO

Mary Altalo, SAIC

Tim Barnett, SIO

Todd Davis, SAIC

Phil Graham, Rossby Center

Alan Hamlet, Univ. of Washington

Dennis Lettenmaier, Univ. of Washington

David Pierce, SIO

Anne Steinemann, Univ. of Washington

Nathalie Voisin, Univ. of Washington

We evaluate how climate forecasts can be used to predict variability that jointly affects water and hydropower supply, and electricity demand, in the Western U.S., enabling more efficient management of hydropower and energy resources. We will present the results to date of our model development, evaluate the appropriate scale of decision making they support, and describe our stakeholder partnerships.

Regional hydrologic forecast models used to manage hydroelectric power resources in California (CA), the Columbia River basin of the Pacific Northwest (PNW), and the Colorado basin in the Southwest (SW) rarely incorporate climate predictions. Instead they use midwinter snow pack measurements, and have no skill beyond climatology prior to midwinter. Furthermore, these methods have generally been applied at local rather than regional scales. Rudimentary models predict effects of weather on the energy industry, but these methods use climate forecasts in only a very crude way or not at all. Little or no effort has been made to jointly predict both water and energy variations across the West on seasonal time scales; addressing both regionally in an integrated way is a unique feature of our project. Joint prediction of water and power generation potential and electricity demand is critical, given the large role hydroelectric power plays in the economy of the western states.

In CA, for example, hydropower resources in CA and energy transfers from the PNW and SW represent energy that will not have to be produced in CA using natural gas turbines or other fuel based technologies, and these resources play a role in determining the risk of capacity related failures. Preliminary studies examined the seasonal predictability of hydropower resources in the PNW and CA, and also of natural gas usage. The most important findings of these studies are that surplus energy in the PNW is strongly related to interannual variability of ENSO and PDO, hydropower resources in CA and the PNW have tended to covary in recent decades, amplifying the impacts of hydropower variations in the West, and there is a strong link between regional hydropower capacity and natural gas usage. In the current phase of the project, we are developing forecasts of system wide hydropower production using linked hydrologic and reservoir simulation models, in conjunction with forecasts of western electricity demand. The economic impact of climate variability on the western power system will be evaluated by the Western Electricity Coordination Council (WECC) using their regional energy production and transmission model.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

EN1.4

Translating Research Results into Resource Plans at the State Level

Franco Guido, California Energy Commission, gfranco@energy.state.ca.us

The state of California periodically produces long-term planning documents such as the State Water Plan and the Integrated Energy Policy Report. The State Water Plan is updated every five years and the Energy Plan every two years as mandated by state law. Both plans contain generic discussions on climate change but additional scientific information will be needed to make specific policy recommendations.

Climate change has the potential to affect water and energy resources in California and increase summer peak electricity demand while decreasing cooling demand in the winter season. Preliminary studies suggest that net energy expenditures in California will experience an increase that cannot be mitigated by reduced energy expenditures in heating demand. The increased urbanization in the hot interior of California will result in a disproportional increase in expensive peak energy demand. At the same time, a reduced snowpack in the Sierra Nevada will result in less hydropower production during the spring and summer months when this source of electricity is most needed.

Scientific research has been helpful in making policy makers aware of the problem and the need to adapt and mitigate any adverse effects due to increased climate variability and change. However, the tools and information needed to develop action plans are not available. To try to address this situation, the state has created a virtual research center on climate change known as the California Climate Change Center. Core research activities are underway at Scripps Institution of Oceanography and at the University of California at Berkeley. The goal of the Center is to complement the national research program with policy relevant research to provide the information needed for long-term state planning. For example, water and energy agencies in the state have indicated that the development of probabilistic climate projections for California at adequate levels of geographical and temporal resolution for both research and planning work should be a priority. The Center is striving to produce such projections.

This presentation will provide some suggestions on how state funded research efforts could be enhanced by additional coordination with the national research program. The NOAA RISA program at Scripps is an example of this type of collaboration. Strong collaboration between the federal and state research programs will also ensure the relevance of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program on state and local level decision-making in California.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]