000
AXNT20 KNHC 192357
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 28W S OF
17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SMALL
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN 220 NM E OF
THE AXIS AND WITHIN 180 NM W OF AXIS FROM 13N-18N.
A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC
WATERS. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING SLOWLY WWD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER SE MEXICO ALONG 92W S OF 19N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS
ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. AS THIS WAVE MOVES W IT WILL BECOME
ABSORBED INTO A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SSW OF THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE THE TWDEP.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 8N25W 7N35W 9N46W 11N60W. A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA FROM THE EAST. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTRED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 18W-21W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOVING WWD UNDER AN ELY WIND FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION JUST EAST OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN GULF GENERATING ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THE TROUGH
AXIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG 94W. SURFACE DATA CLEARLY INDICATES THE
WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. A SFC RIDGE
DOMINATES THE SE CONUS AND THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN A RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS SUPPORTING SOME SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN OVER
THE GULF REGION WHILE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR DOMINATES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THAT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT
CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 56W-61W
MORE CONCENTRATED N OF 14N. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS HAS
ALREADY REACHED THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH THE SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING WWD ACROSS THESE ISLANDS. THE GFS COMPUTER
MODEL HAS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
SPREADING OVER THESE ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUNDAY
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WWD. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP ONCE AGAIN OVER
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AS WELL AS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA WHERE THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN IN A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NICARAGUA IS
PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN
THIS AREA JUST EAST OF HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER...BUT THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL WINDS/TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALSO EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW LOCATED
NEAR 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
IS BEING ENHANCED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE CONUS E COAST THAT ALSO SUPPORTS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FRONT. THIS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA. N TO NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FURTHER EAST...A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N45W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THIS UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURE. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AND A NEW ONE APPEARS TO MOVE OFF THE WEST
AFRICAN COAST. N OF 20N...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST
REGION BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA HAS A RIDGE
EXTENDING WWD TO ABOUT 38W ENVELOPING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
$$
GR
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192351 RRG
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT VIERNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UNA ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVE AL OESTE...ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA
AMPLIO DE BAJA PRESION EN LA SUPERFICIE LOCALIZADO SOBRE EL SURESTE
DEL CARIBE...ESTA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD EXTENSA Y AGUACEROS SOBRE
LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...Y LAS AGUAS ADYACENTES DEL CARIBE Y DEL
ATLANTICO. ESTE SISTMEA HA CAMBIADO UN POCO EN ORGANIZACION DURANTE
LAS HORAS PASADAS. AUNQUE LOS VIENTOS ESTAN ACTUALMENTE
DESFAVORABLES EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS DE LA ATMOSFERA...SE ESPERA QUE
ESTEN MAS CONDUCENTE PARA QUE OCURRA ALGUN DESARROLLO EN LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS.
UN AREA AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION...ACOMPANADA POR ACTIVIDAD
DESORGANIZADA DE AGUACEROS...SE HA FORMADO SOBRE EL OESTE DEL MAR
CARIBE JUSTO AL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. LOS
VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SE ENCUENTRAN ACTUALMENTE DESFAVORABLES
PARA DESARROLLO ADICIONAL.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST OF
HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192330
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
OR WEST-NORTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192144 RRA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 19 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2115 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 6N-15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF LARGE AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF
ACTIVE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION UNDER DIFFLUENT
FLOW THAT EXTENDS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 93W-107W. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW
CLOUD FIELD WITH THE ITCZ AXIS SERVING AS THE FOCAL POINT OF
THIS AREA. CONVECTION WITHIN THIS AREA IS PRESENTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER EASTERLY SHEAR SO THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RATHER BROAD WITH ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES WNW UNDER A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 7N TO ACROSS SE MEXICO IS MOVING W
5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN SMALL CLUSTERS IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-15N. AS THIS WAVE MOVES W IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER DESCRIBED
ABOVE UNDER SPECIAL FEATURES.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W FROM 6N TO 15N IS MOVING W 10 KT. A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N121W...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NOTICEABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONLY
ISOLATED RELATIVELY WEAK TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30-60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 119W-122W.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W TO 12N91W TO 10N98W TO 10N105W
TO 10N120W TO 8N130W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 91W...AND
180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W-123W...
AND FROM 5N-09N BETWEEN 127W-130W.
...DISCUSSION...
E OF 130W...
AN ELONGATED E TO W MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING ESE 15 KT
IS IDENTIFIED NEAR 18N118W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE TO BEYOND 18N130W...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE NNW TO 27N121W
TO 32N124W. A PRONOUNCED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS E OF THE
AREA OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N98W WITH A RIDGE WNW TO 23N117W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN BETWEEN BOTH
ANTICYCLONES WITH A COL REGION CENTERED NEAR 21N107W. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH N OF THE AREA MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA HAS ITS WEAK AXIS EXTENDING SSE TO 32N120W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 22N112W IS NOTED FROM 24N-30N WHERE IT
MERGES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW RELATED WITH THE TROUGH N OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN A CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALLOWING FOR A DRY STABLE
AIR MASS TO PRESENT OVER THE NRN SECTION OF THE AREA.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
CREATING THE EASTERLY OVER THE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
MENTION ABOVE WITH THE WAVE ALONG 103W...IS EVIDENT TO THE S
AND SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. THIS SAME
FLOW IS SPREADING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TO 110W...AND
ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 4N-14N W OF 110W. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 28N129W WITH
A WEAK RIDGE SE TO 25N121W. WEAK HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF
21N W OF 120W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE N-NE WINDS TO 20
KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT 18 HRS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WSW WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN
123W-130W.
A TILTED NW-SE INVERTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING W 15 KT
IS OVER THE ITCZ REGION FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 125W-130W. THIS
TROUGH IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION SOME IN THAT AREA.
W OF 130W...
THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH MENTIONED UNDER E OF 130W IS ANALYZED AS A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N131W SW TO
W OF THE AREA AT 28N140W. BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A SHEAR AXIS THROUGH THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE E OF THE AREA NEAR 18N118W EXTENDS SW TO A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N133W AND TO 11N140W. A SMALL
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING E 15 KT IS JUST NW
OF THE AREA NEAR 33N142W. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SSE TO
26N138W...THEN SW OF THE AREA AT 20N140W. THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THIS TROUGH IS CUTTING-OFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDES AS FORECAST
BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CONFLUENT IN BETWEEN BOTH THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ANTICYCLONE...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS AREA PROHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE S OF THE WEAKENING FRONT. A VERY
NARROW LINE...ABOUT 20 NM IN WIDTH...OF INCREASING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDS FROM 10N137W TO 13N137W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS BEING FORCED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 9N137W
ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 12N137W TO 14N137W. A 45 NM WIDE CYCLONIC
SWIRL IS JUST TO THE SE OF SOUTHERN TIP OF THE TROUGH NEAR
10N136W. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1500 UTC THIS MORNING
REVEALED N-E 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM
11N-14N.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192144
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 19 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 6N-15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF LARGE AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF
ACTIVE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION UNDER DIFFLUENT
FLOW THAT EXTENDS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 93W-107W. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW
CLOUD FIELD WITH THE ITCZ AXIS SERVING AS THE FOCAL POINT OF
THIS AREA. CONVECTION WITHIN THIS AREA IS PRESENTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER EASTERLY SHEAR SO THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RATHER BROAD WITH ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES WNW UNDER A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 7N TO ACROSS SE MEXICO IS MOVING W
5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN SMALL CLUSTERS IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-15N. AS THIS WAVE MOVES W IT
WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER DESCRIBED
ABOVE UNDER SPECIAL FEATURES.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W FROM 6N TO 15N IS MOVING W 10 KT. A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N121W...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NOTICEABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONLY
ISOLATED RELATIVELY WEAK TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30-60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 119W-122W.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W TO 12N91W TO 10N98W TO 10N105W
TO 10N120W TO 8N130W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 91W...AND
180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W-123W...
AND FROM 5N-09N BETWEEN 127W-130W.
...DISCUSSION...
E OF 130W...
AN ELONGATED E TO W MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING ESE 15 KT
IS IDENTIFIED NEAR 18N118W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE TO BEYOND 18N130W...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE NNW TO 27N121W
TO 32N124W. A PRONOUNCED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS E OF THE
AREA OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N98W WITH A RIDGE WNW TO 23N117W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN BETWEEN BOTH
ANTICYCLONES WITH A COL REGION CENTERED NEAR 21N107W. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH N OF THE AREA MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA HAS ITS WEAK AXIS EXTENDING SSE TO 32N120W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 22N112W IS NOTED FROM 24N-30N WHERE IT
MERGES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW RELATED WITH THE TROUGH N OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN A CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALLOWING FOR A DRY STABLE
AIR MASS TO PRESENT OVER THE NRN SECTION OF THE AREA.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
CREATING THE EASTERLY OVER THE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
MENTION ABOVE WITH THE WAVE ALONG 103W...IS EVIDENT TO THE S
AND SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. THIS SAME
FLOW IS SPREADING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TO 110W...AND
ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 4N-14N W OF 110W. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 28N129W WITH
A WEAK RIDGE SE TO 25N121W. WEAK HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF
21N W OF 120W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE N-NE WINDS TO 20
KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT 18 HRS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WSW WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN
123W-130W.
A TILTED NW-SE INVERTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING W 15 KT
IS OVER THE ITCZ REGION FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 125W-130W. THIS
TROUGH IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION SOME IN THAT AREA.
W OF 130W...
THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH MENTIONED UNDER E OF 130W IS ANALYZED AS A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N131W SW TO
W OF THE AREA AT 28N140W. BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A SHEAR AXIS THROUGH THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE E OF THE AREA NEAR 18N118W EXTENDS SW TO A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N133W AND TO 11N140W. A SMALL
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING E 15 KT IS JUST NW
OF THE AREA NEAR 33N142W. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SSE TO
26N138W...THEN SW OF THE AREA AT 20N140W. THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THIS TROUGH IS CUTTING-OFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDES AS FORECAST
BY THE MODELS.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CONFLUENT IN BETWEEN BOTH THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ANTICYCLONE...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS AREA PROHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE S OF THE WEAKENING FRONT. A VERY
NARROW LINE...ABOUT 20 NM IN WIDTH...OF INCREASING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDS FROM 10N137W TO 13N137W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS BEING FORCED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 9N137W
ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 12N137W TO 14N137W. A 45 NM WIDE CYCLONIC
SWIRL IS JUST TO THE SE OF SOUTHERN TIP OF THE TROUGH NEAR
10N136W. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1500 UTC THIS MORNING
REVEALED N-E 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM
11N-14N.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 192105
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (18W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
8 AM CHST SAT SEP 20 2008
...TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT STILL CRUISING WESTWARD...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 7 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.1 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 915 MILES WEST OF GUAM
985 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
545 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND
475 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU.
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 55 MPH. HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...13.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 131.1 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST.
$$
MCELROY
000
ACPN50 PHFO 191945
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
$$
WROE
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191847 RRG
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT VIERNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UNA ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE...ACOMPANADA POR UN
AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION...ESTA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD EXTENSA
Y AGUACEROS SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...Y LAS AGUAS ADYCENTES DEL
CARIBE. ESTE SISTEMA SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADO HOY...Y
AUNQUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS EN ESTOS MOMENTOS NO SON
FAVORABLES...SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA
ALGUN DESARROLLO ADICIONAL DURANTE EL PROXIMO PAR DE DIAS.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191843 RRF
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT VIERNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UNA ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE...ACOMPANADA POR UN
AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION...ESTA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD EXTENSA
Y AGUACEROS SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...Y LAS AGUAS ADYCENTES DEL
CARIBE. ESTE SISTEMA SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADO HOY...Y
AUNQUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS EN ESTOS MOMENTOS NO SON
FAVORABLES...SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA
ALGUN DESARROLLO ADICIONAL DURANTE EL PROXIMO PAR DE DIAS.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
ABNT30 KNHC 191842
TWSAT
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING AUGUST WAS NEAR AVERAGE...WITH FOUR
TROPICAL STORMS FORMING DURING THE MONTH. ONE OF THESE BECAME A
MAJOR HURRICANE. ON AVERAGE...THREE TROPICAL STORM FORM DURING
AUGUST WITH TWO BECOMING HURRICANES.
EDOUARD WAS A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM THAT FORMED AS A DEPRESSION
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON 3 AUGUST. THE DEPRESSION MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
THAT DAY...ITS INTENSITY REACHING 50 MPH EARLY ON 4 AUGUST. EDOUARD
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BUT RE-STRENGTHENED LATE ON 4 AUGUST AS IT
APPROACHED THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST. EDOUARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND 7 AM
CDT 5 AUGUST BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND SABINE PASS...AT THE MCFADDIN
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED
TO BE 65 MPH. EDOUARD MOVED INLAND AND WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION
LATE ON 5 AUGUST...BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS LATE ON
6 AUGUST. THE EFFECTS OF EDOUARD WERE RELATIVELY MINIMAL. SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN TERREBONNE PARISH
LOUISIANA AS EDOUARD PASSED THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LITTLE DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ALONG THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST...MOSTLY
LIMITED TO FLOODING IN A SMALL NUMBER OF HOMES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 6 INCHES WERE REPORTED...THE MAXIMUM OCCURRING IN BAYTOWN
TEXAS...AND SOME ROADWAYS WERE BRIEFLY UNDER WATER. THERE WERE NO
DEATHS REPORTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH EDOUARD.
FAY WAS A LONG-LIVED AND SLOWLY-MOVING TROPICAL STORM THAT SPENT
MOST OF ITS LIFE CENTERED NEAR OR OVER LAND...DUMPING HEAVY RAINS
THAT PRODUCED DAMAGING AND DEADLY FLOODS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND FLORIDA. ORIGINATING FROM A TROPICAL
WAVE...FAY FORMED ON 15 AUGUST AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS OF ABOUT 40 MPH AS IT CROSSED THE EASTERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. ITS STRENGTH CHANGED LITTLE AS IT TRAVERSED THAT ISLAND
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON THE FOLLOWING DAY. THE STORM GAINED A
LITTLE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 50 MPH ON 17 AUGUST AS
ITS CENTER PASSED JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
RESPONDING TO A BREAK IN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...FAY
TURNED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL CUBA THE NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM
WINDS INCREASED TO ABOUT 60 MPH AS THE STORM MOVED INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE PASSED OVER THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS LATE ON 18 AUGUST. FAY TURNED NORTHEASTWARD ON 19
AUGUST...MAKING LANDFALL EARLY THAT DAY ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT CAPE ROMANO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60
MPH. AFTER MOVING INLAND...FAY UNUSUALLY STRENGTHENED...EXHIBITING
WHAT RESEMBLED A CLASSICAL EYE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
IT REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF ABOUT 65 MPH AS IT PASSED OVER THE
WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. IN CONTRAST...DURING 20-23
AUGUST...CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE LANDMASS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA PREVENTED STRENGTHENING...AND FAY`S MAXIMUM WINDS REMAINED
50-60 MPH DURING MOST OF THAT PERIOD. THE CENTER OF FAY MADE TWO
BRIEF REAPPEARANCES OVER WATER...OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST
ON 20-21 AUGUST...AND OVER APALACHEE BAY EARLY ON 23 AUGUST. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...FAY HEADED SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ON 23 AUGUST...FINALLY WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION EARLY
THE NEXT DAY. FAY REMAINED A DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVED SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND
EVENTUALLY DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA ON
26 AUGUST. DUE TO FAY`S VERY SLOW MOTION...STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS WERE STAGGERING...INCLUDING A FEW LOCATIONS
IN EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THAT RECEIVED MORE THAN TWO FEET OF RAIN.
FAY`S RAIN-INDUCED FLOODS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGES AND WERE
DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR NUMEROUS DEATHS IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND FLORIDA. HOWEVER...FINAL FATALITY TOTALS AND
DAMAGE COST ESTIMATES HAVE NOT YET BEEN COMPILED.
GUSTAV WAS A MAJOR HURRICANE ORIGINATING FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
EMERGED FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ON 14 AUGUST. THE WAVE FIRST
SHOWED SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ON 18 AUGUST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT
DID NOT BEGIN IN EARNEST UNTIL THE SYSTEM WAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON 24 AUGUST. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED ON 25
AUGUST ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. THE
DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY AS IT MOVED NORTHWESTWARD...
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY. GUSTAV BECAME A HURRICANE
EARLY ON 26 AUGUST AND MADE LANDFALL LATER THAT DAY ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. THE
CYCLONE MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI ON 27 AUGUST...THEN TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
EARLY ON 28 AUGUST. GUSTAV RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION LATER THAT DAY
AND MOVED OVER JAMAICA AS A TROPICAL STORM. ON 29 AUGUST...GUSTAV
TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND RE-INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHED THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE CYCLONE PASSED THROUGH THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY ON 30 AUGUST AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...AND
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER THAT DAY. GUSTAV
MADE LANDFALL IN THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO NEAR PUNTA
CARRAGUA LATE ON 30 AUGUST AS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 150 MPH. GUSTAV EMERGED INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON 31 AUGUST AS A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE AND ACCELERATED NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. IT MADE
ITS FINAL LANDFALL NEAR COCODRIE LOUISIANA ON 1 SEPTEMBER AS A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. AFTER LANDFALL...GUSTAV WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA ON 2 OCTOBER...THEN
BECAME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON 4 OCTOBER.
THE GUSTAV REMNANT LOW WAS ABSORBED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
5 OCTOBER.
GUSTAV LEFT A LONG TRAIL OF DEATH AND DESTRUCTION. MAJOR WIND AND
STORM SURGE DAMAGE OCCURRED DURING GUSTAV`S LANDFALL IN CUBA...
WHILE HEAVY RAINS IN HAITI CAUSED DESTRUCTIVE MUDSLIDES. STRONG
WINDS...HIGH STORM SURGES...AND HEAVY RAINS ALSO CAUSED DAMAGE IN
LOUISIANA...ALTHOUGH MONETARY ESTIMATES ARE NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME. THE CURRENT ESTIMATE OF THE DEATH TOLL FROM GUSTAV INDICATED
BY MEDIA REPORTS IS 122...OF WHICH AT LEAST 75 OCCURRED IN HAITI.
HOWEVER...THIS ESTIMATE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE SUBSEQUENT
EFFECTS OF HANNA AND IKE ON THE AREAS AFFECTED BY GUSTAV...AND THE
DIFFICULTIES OF DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN DIRECT AND INDIRECT DEATHS.
HANNA FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA ON 19 AUGUST. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS THE WAVE PROGRESSED WESTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...AND ON 26 AUGUST THE WAVE SPAWNED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LED TO THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON 28 AUGUST. THE DEPRESSION
BECAME A TROPICAL STORM SIX HOURS LATER. HANNA MOVED BETWEEN
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PASSING A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST
OF HANNA KEPT THE STORM FROM SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENING. HANNA
BRIEFLY REACHED AN INTENSITY OF 60 MPH EARLY ON THE 31 AUGUST...
BUT WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE CONCLUSION OF THE MONTH. AT THE
END OF AUGUST...HANNA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF GRAND
TURK ISLAND.
SUMMARY TABLE
NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
TS EDOUARD 3- 6 AUG 65 0
TS FAY 15-26 AUG 65 *
MH GUSTAV 25 AUG- 150 122
TS HANNA 28 AUG- 60
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MH DENOTES MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY 3 OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. * DENOTES INCOMPLETE DATA
NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE/KNABB/STEWART
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191842 RRE
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT VIERNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UNA ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE...ACOMPANADA POR UN
AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION...ESTA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD EXTENSA
Y AGUACEROS SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...Y LAS AGUAS ADYCENTES DEL
CARIBE. ESTE SISTEMA SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADO HOY...Y
AUNQUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS EN ESTOS MOMENTOS NO SON
FAVORABLES...SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA
ALGUN DESARROLLO ADICIONAL DURANTE EL PROXIMO PAR DE DIAS.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191838 RRD
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT VIERNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UNA ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE...ACOMPANADA POR UN
AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION...ESTA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD EXTENSA
Y AGUACEROS SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...Y LAS AGUAS ADYCENTES DEL
CARIBE. ESTE SISTEMA SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADO HOY...Y
AUNQUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS EN ESTOS MOMENTOS NO SON
FAVORABLES...SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA
ALGUN DESARROLLO ADICIONAL DURANTE EL PROXIMO PAR DE DIAS.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191815 RRC
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT VIERNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UNA ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE...ACOMPANADA POR UN
AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION...ESTA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD EXTENSA
Y AGUACEROS SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...Y LAS AGUAS ADYCENTES DEL
CARIBE. ESTE SISTEMA SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADO HOY...Y
AUNQUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS EN ESTOS MOMENTOS NO SON
FAVORABLES...SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA
ALGUN DESARROLLO ADICIONAL DURANTE EL PROXIMO PAR DE DIAS.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191812 RRB
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT VIERNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UNA ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE...ACOMPANADA POR UN
AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION...ESTA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD EXTENSA
Y AGUACEROS SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...Y LAS AGUAS ADYCENTES DEL
CARIBE. ESTE SISTEMA SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADO HOY...Y
AUNQUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS EN ESTOS MOMENTOS NO SON
FAVORABLES...SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA
ALGUN DESARROLLO ADICIONAL DURANTE EL PROXIMO PAR DE DIAS.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191806 RRC
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT VIERNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UNA ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE...ACOMPANADA POR UN
AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION...ESTA PRODUCIENDO NUBOSIDAD EXTENSA
Y AGUACEROS SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...Y LAS AGUAS ADYCENTES DEL
CARIBE. ESTE SISTEMA SE HA TORNADO UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADO HOY...Y
AUNQUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS EN ESTOS MOMENTOS NO SON
FAVORABLES...SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNEN MAS CONDUCENTES PARA QUE OCURRA
ALGUN DESARROLLO ADICIONAL DURANTE EL PROXIMO PAR DE DIAS.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
AXNT20 KNHC 191755
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 26W/27W S OF
18N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-17N.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 20N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE
IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 57W AND THE WAVE AXIS.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 19N MOVING W 5-10 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 18N.
THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
ALONG THE W COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E PACIFIC REGION.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N14W 8N29W 9N43W 10N55W 10N84W.
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 16W-19W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 58W-61W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
75W-85W...ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM 27N94W
TO 21N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE TROUGH. A WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM
29N87W TO 24N85W. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND N GULF IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FL AND AL
COASTLINE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NE BRINING MAINLY DRY NW FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND E GULF WHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREDOMINATE.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. DIFFLUENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 16N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO NICARAGUA IS PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 63W IS MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOW LEVEL SUPPORT E OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING CONVECTION THERE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 31N73W SW TO
26N79W. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH NO CONVECTION
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 29N74W TO 24N79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS INCLUDING
THE CENTRAL AND N BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER BEING
ENHANCED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE CONUS E COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N45W IS
GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100
NM OF THE LOW CENTER. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A DEEP LOW
NEAR 34N19W IS BRINING CLOUDY CONDITIONS N OF 24N AND E OF 19W
ALONG THE NW AFRICAN COAST INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE
W TROPICAL ATLC SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IN RESPONSE TO DIFFLUENCE W OF AN UPPER
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 12N54W. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL LARGE E/W
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC
TO 40W BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL AND E TROPICAL ATLC.
$$
COHEN/WALLACE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191746
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...
AND ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191745
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191735 RRC
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT VIERNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NUBOSIDAD DESORGANIZADA Y AGUACEROS SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...EL
CARIBE ADYACENTE Y LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO ESTAN ASOCIADA CON UNA
ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE. LOS VIENTOS EN LA ALTA
ATMOSFERA SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES PARA SU DESARROLLO.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA
000
ABPZ30 KNHC 191733
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
OVERALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING AUGUST WAS BELOW AVERAGE.
THREE TROPICAL STORMS...ONE HURRICANE...AND ONE MAJOR HURRICANE WAS
NOTED. THIS COMPARES TO THE 1971-2007 AVERAGES OF FOUR TROPICAL
STORMS...TWO HURRICANES...AND ONE MAJOR HURRICANE. IN TERMS OF THE
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY INDEX (ACE)...AUGUST 2008 WAS ABOUT HALF
THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE.
HERNAN DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT DEPARTED THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA ON 24 JULY AND ENTERED THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN ON
2 AUGUST. THE WAVE SPAWNED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ON 5 AUGUST. LATE THE NEXT DAY...
THE LOW BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM SIX HOURS LATER. HERNAN INITIALLY MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY 8 AUGUST...HERNAN TURNED WESTWARD
AND REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...HERNAN
MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND BECAME THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF
THE 2008 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. HERNAN REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF
120 MPH AT 1800 UTC 9 AUGUST. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE
MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS WHICH INITIATED WEAKENING...AND HERNAN
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THE 11 AUGUST. THE STORM TURNED WESTWARD
TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DIMINISHED THE NEXT DAY. HERNAN DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY ON 13 AUGUST WHILE LOCATED 1650 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUED MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON 16 AUGUST. THERE ARE NO
REPORTS OF CASUALTIES OR DAMAGE.
ISELLE WAS A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM THAT DID NOT POSE
ANY THREAT TO LAND AREAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BASIN.
ISELLE DEVELOPED ON 13 AUGUST ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM SIX HOURS LATER.
HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INHIBITED STRENGTHENING
THROUGHOUT ISELLE`S LIFETIME...AND THE CYCLONE PEAKED EARLY ON 15
AUGUST WITH 50 MPH WINDS WHEN IT WAS ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. CONTINUING WESTWARD BENEATH
HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS...ISELLE WEAKENED TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 16 AUGUST...AND DEGENERATED INTO A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 350
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
REMNANT LOW CONTINUED SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE
TURNING SHARPLY SOUTHWESTWARD ON 19 AUGUST. THE LOW DISSIPATED
THREE DAYS LATER ON 22 AUGUST ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF CASUALTIES
OR DAMAGE.
JULIO FORMED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA ON 23 AUGUST. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION QUICKLY
INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. JULIO REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 MPH ON
24 AUGUST AS ITS CENTER NEARED CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. LATER THAT
DAY...THE STORM MADE LANDFALL NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS. JULIO MOVED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE VERY SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA.
JULIO WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON 26 AUGUST AND
DISSIPATED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER THAT DAY. THERE ARE
NO REPORTS OF CASUALTIES OR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.
SUMMARY TABLE
NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS
-----------------------------------------------------------------
MH HERNAN 6-13 AUG 120 0
TS ISELLE 13-17 AUG 50 0
TS JULIO 23-26 AUG 50 0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTES...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN/STEWART
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191733 RRA
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT VIERNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NUBOSIDAD DESORGANIZADA Y AGUACEROS SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...EL
CARIBE ADYACENTE Y LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO ESTAN ASOCIADA CON UNA
ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE. LOS VIENTOS EN LA ALTA
ATMOSFERA SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES PARA SU DESARROLLO.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191728 RRA
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT VIERNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NUBOSIDAD DESORGANIZADA Y AGUACEROS SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...EL
CARIBE ADYACENTE Y LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO ESTAN ASOCIADA CON UNA
ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE. LOS VIENTOS EN LA ALTA
ATMOSFERA SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES PARA SU DESARROLLO.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191602
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI SEP 19 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1530 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 07N TO ACROSS WESTERN GUATEMALA AND
TO SE MEXICO IS MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-13N. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES W IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGER SCALE
CYCLONIC GYRE TO ITS W...SSW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH IS
DISCUSSED IN FURTHER DETAIL IN THE PARAGRAPH BELOW.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W/103W FROM 5N-15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS PART OF A LARGE AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF ACTIVE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW
THAT EXTENDS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 93W-104W. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW
CLOUD FIELD WITH THE ITCZ AXIS SERVING AS THE FOCAL POINT OF
THIS AREA. CONVECTION WITHIN THIS AREA IS PRESENTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER EASTERLY SHEAR SO THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RATHER BROAD WITH ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES WNW UNDER A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 6N TO 16N IS MOVING W 10 KT. A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N120W...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT LAST ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE LOW...AND WITHIN
30-60 NM ALONG THE WAVE. OTHER ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W TO 10N100W TO 10N110W TO
TO 10N120W TO 8N130W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-
111W...AND BETWEEN 115W-118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-129W.
...DISCUSSION...
E OF 130W...
AN ELONGATED E TO W MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING ESE 15 KT
IS IDENTIFIED NEAR 22N112W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE TO 16N130W...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE NE OF THE AREA
REACHING TO A CREST WELL N OF THE OF THE NW UNITED STATES. A
PRONOUNCED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS E OF THE AREA OVER MEXICO
NEAR 20N101W WITH A RIDGE WNW TO 21N106W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN BETWEEN BOTH ANTICYCLONES
WITH A COL REGION CENTERED NEAR 21N107W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH N
OF THE AREA MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS ITS
WEAK AXIS EXTENDING SSE TO 32N120W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MOSTLY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 22N112W
IS NOTED FROM 24N-30N WHERE IT MERGES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW RELATED
WITH THE TROUGH N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN A CONFLUENT FLOW
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR A DRY STABLE AIR MASS TO PRESENT OVER THE
NRN SECTION OF THE AREA.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
CREATING THE EASTERLY OVER THE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
MENTION ABOVE WITH THE WAVE ALONG 102W/103W...IS EVIDENT TO THE
S AND SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N101W. THIS SAME
FLOW IS SPREADING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD E OF 110W...AND
ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 4N-14N W OF 110W. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1019 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 28N129W WITH
A WEAK RIDGE SE TO 25N122W. WEAK HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF
21N W OF 120W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE N-NE WINDS TO
20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WSW WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN
121W-130W.
A TILTED NW-SE INVERTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING W 15 KT
IS OVER THE ITCZ REGION FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 125W-130W. THIS
TROUGH IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION SOME IN THAT AREA.
W OF 130W...
THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH MENTIONED UNDER E OF 130W IS ANALYZED AS A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N131W SW TO
W OF THE AREA AT 29N140W. BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A SHEAR AXIS THROUGH THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE E OF THE AREA NEAR 22N112W EXTENDS SW TO 7N138W. A
SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING E 15 KT IS JUST
NW OF THE AREA NEAR 29N142W. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SSE
TO 26N139W...THEN SW OF THE AREA AT 20N140W. THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY CUT-OFF AS A MID/UPPER
LOW OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
IS NEAR 13N133W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CONFLUENT IN
BETWEEN BOTH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ANTICYCLONE...WHICH
IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY
STABLE AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS AREA PROHIBITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE S OF THE WEAKENING FRONT. A VERY
NARROW LINE...ABOUT 20 NM IN WIDTH...OF INCREASING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDS FROM 10N137W TO 13N137W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS BEING FORCED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST
N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 10N135W NW TO 12N137W TO 13N137W. A WEAK AND
SMALL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE TROUGH
NEAR 10N135W.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 191554
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (18W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
2 AM CHST SAT SEP 20 2008
...TROPICAL STORM 18W HAS JUST BEEN NAMED HAGUPIT...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 1 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM
HAGUPIT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
132.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
830 MILES WEST OF GUAM
895 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
495 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP AND
480 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU.
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. A CONTINUED
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
FORECASTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 45 MPH. HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 132.4 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM CHST.
$$
MCELROY
000
ACPN50 PHFO 191345
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
$$
DONALDSON
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191155
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT VIERNES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NUBOSIDAD DESORGANIZADA Y AGUACEROS SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES...EL
CARIBE ADYACENTE Y LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO ESTAN ASOCIADA CON UNA
ONDA TROPICAL QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE. LOS VIENTOS EN LA ALTA
ATMOSFERA SE HAN TORNADO MENOS FAVORABLES PARA SU DESARROLLO.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191150
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191148
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
AXNT20 KNHC 191109
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT
PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO THIS WAVE AT ALL ARE WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N40W 8N46W 7N50W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
59W AND 62W. AT LEAST ONE STRONG CELL OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TOP
OF TRINIDAD NOW. SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N
FROM HAITI TO VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
DISSIPATING SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W IN
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
IS ALONG 91W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC.
...THE ITCZ...
ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN AFRICA AT 15W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W.
...DISCUSSION...
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 31N75W
TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 24N81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N81W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF THE LINE
THROUGH 31N61W 22N75W...IN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...AND IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N84W 30N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS AND WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 28N. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM 17N TO 27N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NICARAGUA CARIBBEAN SEA COAST.
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 40W AND 60W INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
14N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PRECIPITATION NOT RELATED TO THE
62W TROPICAL WAVE ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
25N43W AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 15N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND
60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 32N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N23W
TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
$$
MT
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 191001
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 18W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
8 PM CHST FRI SEP 19 2008
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 7 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 18W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF GUAM
815 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
435 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP
465 MILES NORTH OF KOROR PALAU
TROPICAL STORM 18W IS MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUT TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...14.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 133.6 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM SATURDAY CHST.
$$
CHAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190918
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI SEP 19 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0845 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W N OF 8N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. WHILE
LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS...IT IS BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC
GYRE TO ITS W...SSW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MORE ABOUT THIS
IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W FROM 6N TO 16N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT.
LIKE THE WAVE TO ITS E...THIS FEATURE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE. THE COMBINED VORTICITY OF THESE
WAVES...AND OTHER SOURCES...MAY LEAD TO GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 119W/120W FROM 6N TO 16N MOVING W 5-10
KT. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
11N. CONVECTION IS ISOLATED AT MOST WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 13N88W 11N96W 10N110W 10N120W
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N E
OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 112W-116W.
...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...
A QSCAT PASS AROUND 00Z REVEALED A VERY BROAD AND HIGHLY
STRETCHED E-W SFC AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG 11N S OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. AS ADDRESSED ABOVE...A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SLOW MOVING BROAD LOW. WHILE THERE IS A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...N OF 9N BETWEEN
91W-101W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 101W-108W...IT HAS LITTLE
ORGANIZATION. SWIFT UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW IS LIKELY LIMITING
DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE TROPICS BUT CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.
THE AFOREMENTIONED 00Z QSCAT PASS SHOWED 20-30 KT N WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIKELY WEAKENING AS
ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED OVER THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 20 KT IN 24-36 HOURS. S TO SW 15-20 KT WINDS AND LONG
PERIOD SW SWELL IS BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT S OF THE ITCZ FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 90W-110W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS
REGIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
W OF 110W...
A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE N CALIFORNIA COAST IS
INDUCING TROUGHING TO NEAR 29N125W. WEAK MID TO UPPER TROUGHING
ALSO LIES JUST W OF THE ZONE ALONG 142W. RIDGING EXISTS
ELSEWHERE AND THE OVERALL CONFLUENT ZONES BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
IS ENHANCING STABILITY MAINLY N OF 22N. THE LOW OFF THE NRN CA
COAST DRAPES A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW CORNER
OF THE ZONE. WHILE THIS FEATURE IS WEAKENING THE TRADE WIND
FLOW...NW SWELL IS ELEVATING SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE FAR NW
WATERS AS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. THE PRES
GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST NEAR THE S CALIFORNIA COAST...PRODUCING 20
KT N TO NW WINDS JUST N OF 30N.
$$
CANGIALOSI
000
ACPN50 PHFO 190745
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
$$
DONALDSON
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190618
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC WEST OF 50W...AND THROUGH 0545 UTC EAST OF 50W...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT
PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO THIS WAVE AT ALL ARE WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N51W 8N45W 11N39W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W
AND 55W. AT LEAST 2.28 INCHES OF RAIN WERE REPORTED IN
GUADELOUPE FROM 18/0000 UTC UNTIL 19/0000 UTC WITH THIS WAVE.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE
IS IN THREE CELLS...ONE NEAR 11N72W...A SECOND CELL IS NEAR
9N73W...AND A THIRD CELL 7N74W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ONE RAIN CELL
IS WITH A 15 TO 20 KT OF 19N90W.
...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 10N18W 12N25W 10N35W 11N46W 11N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF
THIS AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF
20N WEST OF 50W. A 61W/62W TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF 18N ALSO IS
HELPING TO SPIN UP SOME CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF IT. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 3N12W 7N12W 10N10W FROM THE WATERS OFF LIBERIA
ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA.
...DISCUSSION...
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THROUGH 32N76W TO
27N79W NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 25N83W IN THE WATERS OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N73W TO THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NEAR 28N80W...WEAKENING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO 27N94W...AND CONTINUING AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
27N94W TO 17N94W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON
TOP OF THE PART OF THE FRONT FROM 17N TO 27N ALONG 94W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS BETWEEN 88W AND THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COASTLINES.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS JUST WEST OF ANDROS
ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS AND CROSSES CUBA TO 20N87W JUST SOUTH OF
CUBA...TO 16N78W...TO 14N81W SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
14N TO 20N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 76W
AND 82W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W FROM THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWARD. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N90W. OTHER
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO EAST OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE FORMED IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NICARAGUA CARIBBEAN SEA
COAST.
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 70W INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
14N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME
ARE DISSIPATING WITH TIME...FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST FIVE
HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 23N68W CYCLONIC
CENTER BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
24N42W AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 17N55W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF
16N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 26N24W TO 19N23W.
$$
MT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 190555
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCINJG WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190552
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE ARE OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190312
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI SEP 19 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0215 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 08N TO THE SE COAST OF GUATEMALA
MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION LIES AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER DESCRIBED IN THE PARAGRAPH BELOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W FROM 06N TO 16N MOVING W ABOUT 05 TO 10
KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 93W TO 108W BETWEEN 04N AND 17N. 20 TO 40 KT
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS
REGION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE COAST. THIS STRONG
FLOW ALOFT IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION BY GENERATING VERTICAL
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 06N TO 16N MOVING W 05 KT. VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N91W TO 09N109W TO 11N118W TO
08N126W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 108W.
...DISCUSSION...
W OF 115W...
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW WATERS AND WILL
DISSIPATE SAT. WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
20 KT...ELEVATED SEAS TO 8 FT WITH NW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO NW
WATERS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS NO ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM N OF THE AREA LATE SAT. THE
REBUILDING RIDGE WILL LIMIT ANY NW PROGRESS FOR THE INVERTED MID
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY S OF 20N CENTERED ALONG 130W. THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W HAS SLOWED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AS IT
HAS ENCOUNTERED THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHOULD TURN
THE WAVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY PATH WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SHEAR AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE W OF 115W...A SUBSIDENT REGION IS CENTERED FROM THE
CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WSW TOWARD 20N140W.
E OF 115W...
ASIDE FROM THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W MENTIONED ABOVE...DISSIPATING
CONVECTION SPURRED ON BY AFTERNOON HEATING OVER LAND AND PUSHED
W TOWARD THE COAST ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS MEXICO ALONG 20N CAN BE FOUND
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 20N AND 16N.
NORTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING OVER NE MEXICO AND THE
WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1544 UTC
CONFIRMS A SWATH OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 16N94W TO 13N97W. THESE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE TROUGHING IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WEAKENS.
$$
SCHAUER CLARK
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 190310
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1 PM CHST FRI SEP 19 2008
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W NORTH OF YAP AND PALAU...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 1 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.7 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 620 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
670 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
425 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
550 MILES NORTH OF KOROR PALAU
DEPRESSION 18W IS MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST
AT LESS THAN 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 135.7 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM CHST.
$$
MUNDELL
000
ACPN50 PHFO 190145
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
WROE
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 190009
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
10 AM CHST FRI SEP 19 2008
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W FORMS WEST OF THE MARIANAS...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 7 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.3 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 540 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
580 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
380 MILES NORTH OF YAP
525 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU
DEPRESSION 18W IS MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST
AT LESS THAN 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 7 AM CHST POSITION...15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.3
DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST.
$$
MUNDELL
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 182357
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UNA ONDA TROPICAL...ACOMPANADA POR UN SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION EN LA
SUPERFICIE...CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UN AREA AMPLIA DE NUBOSIDAD Y
AGUACEROS A TRAVES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS AGUAS ADYACENTES
DEL ATLANTICO. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA UNA ORGANIZACION ADICIONAL DE
ESTE SISTEMA EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA LENTAMENTE
HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE. LLUVIA FUERTE Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS SERAN
POSIBLES SOBRE PARTES DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO Y SOTAVENTO...Y EL
ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE ESTA NOCHE Y EL VIERNES.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182353
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
AXNT20 KNHC 182352
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25W S OF
17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS NEAR 16N. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS
AND THE ITCZ. THE SSMI TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A BULGE OF
MOISTURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 19N MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE
AIR...THUS ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NEAR THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE LINE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W S OF 20N
MOVING SLOWLY WWD. THIS WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS
BASED ON A LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOP. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH TO THE W OF THE WAVE AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E IS
GREATLY ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO SPREAD OVER
THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATE FRI INTO SAT
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THOSE
ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA
AS WELL AS OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA...INCLUDING THE LAKE MARACAIBO
AREA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE W OF THE
WAVE AXIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA WITH
THE AXIS ALONG 89W/90W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N17W 12N24W 10N35W 11N50W 12N60W.
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS CONFINED TO WEST OF 50W AND WITHIN
120 NM N OF AXIS WHERE AN AREA OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SW AFRICA
COVERING THE AREA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 3W-11W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM
NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA WWD TO 27N93W...THEN CONTINUES SWD ALONG
94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A 1012 MB FRONTAL LOW IS NEAR 22N95W. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAINLY S OF 27N. AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS SHOWED NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE CITY OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS
BEEN REPORTED LIGHT RAIN AND SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 18 KT TODAY.
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ALONG THE E COAST OF U.S. SUPPORTS THIS
FRONT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF
AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR
VERACRUZ. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WV IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR
ACROSS THE SE CONUS DROPPING S INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
REACH SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW. INSTABILITY NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS
IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NE
GULF. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE INTO THE WEEKEND.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. A
HUMID AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN
DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.
DIFFLUENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF 15N
INCLUDING ALSO PARTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FURTHERMORE...AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED N OF
PUERTO RICO INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W/67W. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 62W...THAT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE
IN THE REGION...IS INTERACTING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N59W
COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION HAS ALSO FLARE UP OVER
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXCEPTED TO BE HIGHER NEAR THE
AREAS OF TSTMS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N75W THEN CONTINUES SW
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONT.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER THE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SUPPORTS THE FRONT AND
EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 23N68W CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER.
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC THERE IS A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVE. N
OF 20N...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION BRINGING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N42W PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS. A 1011 SURFACE LOW IS SW OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS NEAR 32N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SFC LOW AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING JUST SW OF THE SFC LOW
NEAR 31N22W. THE TYPICAL LARGE E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC LIMITING CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ.
$$
GR
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182351
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
ABNT20 KNHC 182348
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182136
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 18 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 07N TO ACROSS GUATEMALA AND
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-13N.
THIS WAVE WAVE WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
DESCRIBED IN THE PARAGRAPH BELOW OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W FROM 5N-15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS PART OF A LARGE AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN
92W-104W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW CLOUD FIELD WITH THE ITCZ AXIS
SERVING AS THE FOCAL POINT OF THIS AREA. CONVECTION WITHIN
THIS AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER EASTERLY
SHEAR SO THE AREA WILL REMAIN RATHER ELONGATED WITH ONLY
SLOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS WESTWARD.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W FROM 6N TO 16N IS MOVING W 10 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOWS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N119W
...BUT IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME. ONLY ISOLATED
WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30-60 NM OF THE LOW...AND WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE WAVE. OTHER ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W TO 10N100W TO 8N110W
TO 9N120W TO 8N125W TO 11N132W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-128W.
...DISCUSSION...
E OF 130W...
AN ELONGATED E TO W MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR
22N117W MOVING E NEAR 10 KT. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO W OF THE AREA
AT 18N130W...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE NNE TO N OF THE AREA AT 32N117W
AND CONTINUING N TO A CREST OVER THE NW UNITED STATES. A
PRONOUNCED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS E OF THE AREA OVER THE
WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W WITH A RIDGE WNW TO 20N106W.
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS PRESENT OVER NRN MEXICO N OF
25N WITH MEAN AXIS FROM 32N105W TO 21N107W. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA RAPIDLY MOVING
EWD. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CREATING THE EASTERLY OVER THE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION MENTION ABOVE WITH THE WAVE
ALONG 100W...IS EVIDENT TO THE S AND SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SPREADING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WESTWARD TO 114W S OF 14N. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE AREA PRIMARILY NW OF A LINE FROM 24N107W TO 17N115W TO
12N130W.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS NEAR 28N128W WITH A RIDGE SE
TO 25N122W. WEAK HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 115W.
A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED N WINDS
OF 20-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS POSSIBLY
UP TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 KT IN ABOUT 42 HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS MOVING SW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM
19N-28N BETWEEN 120W-130W.
AN INVERTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING W 15 KT IS OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W IN THE AREA OF THE ITCZ FROM 9N-14N
BETWEEN 127W-129W. IT IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN
124W-128W.
W OF 130W...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MENTIONED UNDER E OF 130W EXTENDS SW
THROUGH 32N135W SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 25N140W. THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT CLIPS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA FROM
32N137W TO 30N140W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL W OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT.
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OF THE AREA IN
ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS AS IT SKIRTS ALONG 31N/32N THROUGH SAT. THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS WSW
TO 19N140W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IN A CONFLUENT PATTERN IS
OBSERVED TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE AND S OF THE TROUGH WITH AMPLE
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR
INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING IN THAT PORTION OF
THE AREA. LIMITED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE ITCZ
IS SLOWLY SPREADING NNE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SE OF A LINE FROM 20N130W TO 13N140W...AND
THIS IS MOSTLY BEING INITIATED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
DISSECTS THE ITCZ ALONG 133W FROM 9N-14N MOVING SLOWLY W.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
ACPN50 PHFO 181945
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
$$
WROE
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181823
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UNA ONDA TROPICAL INTERACTUANDO CON UNA VAGUADA EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS
CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO UNA AREA AMPLIA DE AGUACEROS Y ALGUNAS TRONADAS
SOBRE LOS ANTILLES MENORES. DESARROLLO SIGNIFICATIVO DE ESTE SISTEMA
NO APARENTA SER PROBABLE DURANTE EL PROXIMO PAR DE DIAS A MEDIDA QUE
SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE...PERO LLUVIAS
LOCALMENTE FUERTES PODRIAN CONTINUAR SOBRE PARTES DE LAS ISLAS DE
BARLOVENTO Y DE SOTAVENTO HOY Y MANANA.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR KNABB
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181758
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
000
AXNT20 KNHC 181757
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 24W/25W S OF
17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A LOW/MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS WITH THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION.
HOWEVER...THE AREA LACKS ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION OR
SHOWERS.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 19N MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT.
MID LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR...THUS NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE AS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS BASED ON A
LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOP ALONG 62W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE E IS GREATLY ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 57W-64W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 70W-77W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
ALONG THE COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E PACIFIC REGION.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 16N16W 8N29W 11N48W 13N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N
OF THE ITCZ FROM 53W-57W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM
52W-58W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND FAR E
CARIBBEAN INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO
27N92.5W. SOUTH OF THIS POINT...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS S TO 1012
MB LOW AT 21.5N96W...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING SE FROM
THE LOW TO 18.5N94.5W. THESE FEATURES ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF S OF THE FRONT TO 90W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SLIPPING S
ACROSS THE NE GULF...WITH DRY AIR DROPPING S TO NEAR TAMPA
FLORIDA E OF 88W. INSTABILITY NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NE GULF. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 20.5N97W
COVERS THE S GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE HIGH IS
FURTHER AIDING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. ACROSS THE SE GULF...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. DIFFLUENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE S
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 17N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW HAS FORMED OVER PANAMA NEAR
9.5N79.5W...WHICH IS FURTHER AIDING THE CONVECTION NEAR PANAMA.
FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVER PUERTO RICO TO VENEZUELA NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS AND IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
62W...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AN UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
TRINIDAD. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN WHERE DRY AIR IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A
1014 MB LOW NEAR 32.5N74W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE INTO THE
GULF AS STATIONARY BOUNDARY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30.5N69W TO 25.5N73.5W. THESE FEATURES ARE RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLC...
W OF LINE FROM 30N68W TO THE N CUBA COAST NEAR 21N77W INCLUDING
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS OVER THE E CONUS COAST AND IS
FURTHER AIDING THIS ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS
BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 22.5N41.5W AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N40W TO
29N42.5W TO 27N47W ARE GENERATING CLOUDINESS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC IS GENERATING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 27N AND E OF 20W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE
TYPICAL LARGE E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE TROPICAL ATLC BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL AND E
TROPICAL ATLC.
$$
COHEN/WALLACE
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181739
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT
DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181606
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 18 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 07N TO ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS AND
TO JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF
THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
WAVE OVER WESTERN HONDURAS AND BELIZE.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W FROM 5N-15N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1011
MB LOW IS IN BETWEEN BOTH WAVES NEAR 11N92W. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES ARE PART OF A LARGE AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN
92W-102W. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC
TURNING OF THE LOW CLOUD FIELD WITH THE ITCZ AXIS SERVING AS THE
FOCAL POINT OF THIS AREA. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING
REVEALED THE CYCLONIC TURNING TO BE RATHER ELONGATED AS WELL
ALONG THE ITCZ. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W FROM 6N TO 16N IS MOVING W 10 KT. A
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1330 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N119W.
ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
LOW...AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE. OTHER ISOLATED WEAK
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE ITCZ AXIS.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W TO 11N91W TO 10N101W TO
8N110W TO 8N120W TO 10N127W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W-124.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 124.5W-128W.
...DISCUSSION...
E OF 130W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 22N118W WITH
A RIDGE SW TO 20N130W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE NNE TO N OF THE AREA
AT 32N117W AND CONTINUING N TO A CREST OVER THE NW UNITED
STATES. A PRONOUNCED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 21N97W WITH A RIDGE W TO 20N108W.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING E 20 KT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS SW TO 28N105W TO NW MEXICO NEAR 24N108W...
AND TO 21N109W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS JUST NW OF THE AREA
MOVING EWD...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW IS EVIDENT TO THE S OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO SPREADING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TO 112W. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA PRIMARILY NW OF A LINE FROM 24N107W
TO 21N117W TO 17N130W.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS NEAR 20N128W WITH A RIDGE SE
TO 22N114W. WEAK HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 115W.
A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED N WINDS
OF 20-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS POSSIBLY
UP TO 9 FT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SW
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN
125W-130W.
AN INVERTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING W 15 KT IS OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 119W IN THE AREA OF THE ITCZ FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 124W-128W. IT IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN
124W-128W.
W OF 130W...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MENTIONED UNDER E OF 130W EXTENDS SW
THROUGH 32N135W TO 27N130W TO W OF THE AREA AT 25N140W. ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE
AREA. BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHILE THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS AS IT SKIRTS
ALONG 31N/32N THROUGH SAT. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS WSW TO 19N140W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW IN A CONFLUENT PATTERN IS OBSERVED TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE
AND S OF THE TROUGH WITH AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE AIR INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
FROM OCCURRING IN THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE ITCZ IS SLOWLY SPREADING NNE
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SE OF A LINE FROM 20N130W TO 13N140W...AND THIS IS MOSTLY
BEING INITIATED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DISSECTING THE
ITCZ ALONG 133W FROM 9N-14N AND MOVING W 5-10 KT.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
ACPN50 PHFO 181345
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
$$
H LAU
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181215
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT JUEVES 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UNA ONDA TROPICAL INTERACTUANDO CON UNA VAGUADA EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS
ESTAN PRODUCIENDO UNA AREA AMPLIA DE AGUACEROS Y ALGUNAS TRONADAS
SOBRE LOS ANTILLES MENORES. LAS CONDICIONES NO SE APARCENEN
CONDUCTIVO PARA EL DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS...PERO LLUVIAS FUERTES LOCALMENTE PODRIAN CONTINUA SOBRE LOS
PORCIONES DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO Y BARLOVENTO HOY.
NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL EN EL AREA DURANTE LAS
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR KNABB
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181159
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181158
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
000
AXNT20 KNHC 181034
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W/23W S
OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE. A LOW LEVEL SWIRL IS SEEN NEAR 17N22W. THE TPW PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS ALSO INDICATES A BULGE OF MOISTURE E OF 28W.
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 14N MOVING W 10
KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 69W-77W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 86W/87W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 09N-18N
BETWEEN 80W-92W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 19N17W 10N28W 11N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 56W-64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 20W-45W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N79W 28N84W 27N91W 18N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 91W-97W. 10-15 NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT...WHILE 10 KT ELY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 22N98W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 90W. A
TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA E OF 90W. EXPECT
...THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY N THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO W OF 90W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N64W. DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE CENTER IS PRODUCING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-20N
BETWEEN 58W-64W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N65W, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW
TO THE SRN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N50W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N16W 26N24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N47W...AND AT 23N40W. A LARGE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. TWO UPPER
LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT 15N54W...
AND AT 12N28W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180907
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU SEP 18 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 86W MOVING W 10 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC N OF 8N BETWEEN
86W AND 91W AND ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 99W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 94W-100W.
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-16N ALONG 118W MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 9N ALONG THE WAVE.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS FROM 11N86W 9N95W 11N115W 10N125W 11N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 86W-91W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 94W-100W.
...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION FROM 32N128W TO 27N140W. DOWNSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTEND FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
22N117W N TO THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE CONDITIONS COVER
THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W. A WEAK TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO ACROSS NW MEXICO SEPARATES THE PACIFIC ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION FROM ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO
THE PACIFIC N OF 5N E OF 100W.
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR
29N129W TO 18N111W. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER
THE AREA FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 8N-16N ALONG 132W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE TROUGH.
$$
DGS
000
ACPN50 PHFO 180745
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST WED SEP 17 2008
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
$$
H LAU
000
AXNT20 KNHC 180602
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
SEEN NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE THE TPW
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES A BULGE OF MOISTURE IN THIS AREA.
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 14N MOVING W 10
KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ITCZ.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 68W-71W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 85W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 84W-87W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 85W-89W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 09N30W 11N40W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 58W-62W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 20W-44W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 30N81W 28N86W 27N91W 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N
BETWEEN 80W-82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 93W-96W. 10-15 NLY WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT...WHILE 10 KT ELY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 22N98W...THAT DOMINATES THE W GULF W OF 90W. A
TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA E OF 90W.
EXPECT... THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 63W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N64W. DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 59W-63W.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N64W, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW
TO THE SRN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N49W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N15W 27N24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N47W...AND AT 23N40W. A LARGE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. TWO UPPER
LEVEL HIGHS ARE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT 15N54W...
AND AT 12N28W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
ABNT20 KNHC 180514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180513
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180249
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU SEP 18 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0115 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 09N...PASSING THROUGH
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND NE COSTA RICA...MOVING W 15 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF TROPICAL WAVE TO 88W
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 06N TO THE SW MEXICAN COAST MOVING
W 15 KT. ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 10N ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 118W FROM 06N TO 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 09N90W TO 10N98W TO 09N106W TO 11N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 117W TO
134W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
300 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 103W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY N OF AREA WILL AMPLIFY ALONG
135W...WITH THE LOW LEVEL COMPONENT SETTLING S INTO N WATERS
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND DISSIPATING WITH LITTLE FANFARE. NW
SWELL PENETRATING THE FAR NW WATERS MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW SEAS TO
APPROACH THE 8 FT MARK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL UNDER
20 KT. ELSEWHERE OVER WATERS N OF 20N...AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE CAN BE FOUND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W.
A SLOW MOVING MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH S OF 20N
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W WILL SLOW THE W PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 118W AND CARRY IT ON A MORE N TRACK OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO THE INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR.
BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CAN BE FOUND OVER WATERS E
OF 100W. WITHIN THIS REGION...TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ON WESTWARD TRACKS. THE WESTERN TROPICAL WAVE IS ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IN
BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG
N TO NE FLOW THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
PRODUCING 20 TO 30 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT N OF 12N BETWEEN
93W AND 96W. UPPER LEVEL 40 KT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE WAVE N OF 10N...LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION HERE...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS TROPICAL
WAVE SHOULD MAKE THIS PORTION OF THE WAVE THE MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 86W
IS UNDER A REGION OF MORE BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AT THE
MOMENT...BUT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN A DAY OR
TWO AS IT PROGRESSES W.
$$
SCHAUER CLARK
000
ACPN50 PHFO 180145
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED SEP 17 2008
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
DONALDSON
000
AXNT20 KNHC 172356
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 21W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
SEEN NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS WHILE THE TPW
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES A BULGE OF MOISTURE IN THIS AREA.
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 14N MOVING W 10
KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
WAVE AND THE ITCZ.
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 64W IS RELOCATED
FURTHER WEST BASED ON SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE PICTURES. ITS
AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG 68W EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO
NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. NOAA BUOY
42059 IS REPORTING SE WINDS INDICATING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO
RICO.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W S OF 20N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NE HONDURAS...PARTS OF
NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. THE WAVE EXTENDS INTO THE
EPAC.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER SE MEXICO ALONG 95 S OF 18N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. ALL CONVECTION IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEE THE TWDEP FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION. A RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 4.94 INCHES/24 HOURS
WAS REPORTED THIS MORNING IN MERIDA MEXICO WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS WAVE YESTERDAY EVENING.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N25W 10N38W 10N43W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 7N-14N W OF 50W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM NORTHERN SURINAME TO NE
VENEZUELA.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF N OF TAMPA ALONG 27N90W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
MODERATE NLY WINDS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OFF THE
SE MEXICAN COAST...WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF 25N
AND W OF 90W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH LOCATED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS DIPS INTO THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S.
INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER N FLORIDA WITH SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
PROCESSES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE ON THU...BUT
A SFC TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST
SAT. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILT IN DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND PRODUCING MODERATE ELY WINDS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVE ARE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE AREA. SEE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING AIDED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
PATTERN ALOFT IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW LOCATED
NEAR 21N67W THROUGH PUERTO RICO INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W.
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH AXIS IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS UP TO 20 KT...PER AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W ATLC DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE SE COAST OF U.S. AND A WEAK
SFC TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N66W...THEN CONTINUES
MAINLY SW TO NEAR 24N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SAT. E OF THIS TROUGH...THERE IS AN AREA OF
MODERATE CONVECTION WHICH COVERS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 59W-62W.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED
NEAR 32N65W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS THIS LOW WITH THE
ONE LOCATED N OF PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 64W
FROM 21N-25N GENERATING SCATTRED MODERATE CONVECTION. A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR 20N61W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW SITUATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ENHANCING ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ON
A HIGH SITUATED NEAR THE AZORES ENVELOPS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N19W
THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 26N25W. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN BETWEEN 51W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WIND SURGE AT LOW LEVEL AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE RELATED TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 15N54W.
$$
GR
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172332
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 172325
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL EN EL AREA DURANTE LAS
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR PASCH
000
ABNT20 KNHC 172325
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172117
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 17 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 20N...PASSING THROUGH
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA...MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
NICARAGUA.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 114W AND
120W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 130W/131W FROM 10N TO 16N. ITCZ
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 13N
BETWEEN 126W AND 134W.
...ITCZ...
10N85W 09N100W 11N115W 10N127W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
94W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM NORTH AND 270 NM SOUTH OF ITCZ
EAST OF 101W.
...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS FLATTENED THE RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 26N138W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
29N116W 25N130W BEYOND 22N140W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY
STABLE CONDITIONS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 24N108W 17N125W
10N140W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO...ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TO 26N110W IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N126W TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N131W...BEYOND 25N140W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 110W.
$$
MT
000
ACPN50 PHFO 171933
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED SEP 17 2008
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
$$
DONALDSON
000
AXNT20 KNHC 171804
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A BAND
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 18W-20W...NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ AXIS.
LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 14N MOVING W
10 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE AXIS S OF 9N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS DEPICT
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS...PARTICULARLY OVER ITS SOUTHERN HALF.
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W S OF 20N MOVING W
10 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN AN AREA WITHIN 150 NM
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 11N. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
JUST N OF THE WAVE...WHERE MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 62W-65W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WEST CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 83W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 15N
INCLUDING COASTAL AREAS OF E HONDURAS/NICARAGUA.
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO ALONG 93W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15
KT. ALL CONVECTION IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 9N27W 10N37W 10N79W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
11N-15N E OF 17W INLAND OVER W AFRICA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 50W-63W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF N OF TAMPA ALONG 25N92W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
MODERATE WINDS ARE N AND W OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OFF THE SE
MEXICAN COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN GULF FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 91W-98W. THIS CONVECTION
IS FURTHER BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS ANTICYCLONE IS
RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF COMBINED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARE RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SE GULF
EXTENDING FROM 25N84W TO 23N89W...AS WELL AS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
IN RESPONSE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE PROCESSES.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. LARGE CLUSTERS OF MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
9N-17N BETWEEN 70W-77W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 20N67W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN DRY
MID-LEVELS IS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC AN UPPER HIGH IS NEAR
15N50W PRODUCING STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE W OF THE HIGH.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE
FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 50W-62W RESULTING FROM MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT. MOISTURE IN MODERATE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 15W-40W. ALSO...A SURFACE
TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 32N62W TO 26N70W IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE RULE WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N43W.
$$
COHEN/WALLACE
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171749
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 171739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171634 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED SEP 17 2008
CORRECTION FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD PARAGRAPHS
IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1600 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W SOUTH OF 20N...PASSING THROUGH
THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
TO THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER AND BEYOND...MOVING WEST
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W/94W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W/116W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 130W/131W FROM 10N TO 16N. ITCZ
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9.5N TO 11.5N
BETWEEN 130W AND 136W.
...ITCZ...
9N84W 10N95W 12N115W 10N124W 11N137W 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N
BETWEEN 83W AND 84W...FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W...
AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N88W 11N93W...
AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. DISORGANIZED
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W
AND 140W.
...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS FLATTENED THE RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 27N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N119W WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE
EXTENDING ALONG 22N. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY
STABLE CONDITIONS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 115W.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IN FROM COASTAL NICARAGUA TO COASTAL HONDURAS...AND INTO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. A WEAK TROUGH SEPARATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ANTICYCLONE AND THE MEXICO ANTICYCLONE.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N125W TO A 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N132W...BEYOND 26N140W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA
NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 110W.
$$
MT
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171605
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED SEP 17 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1600 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W SOUTH OF 20N...PASSING THROUGH
THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
TO THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER AND BEYOND...MOVING WEST
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W/94W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W/116W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 130W/131W FROM 10N TO 16N. ITCZ
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9.5N TO 11.5N
BETWEEN 130W AND 136W.
...ITCZ...
9N84W 10N95W 12N115W 10N124W 11N137W 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N
BETWEEN 83W AND 84W...FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W...
AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N88W 11N93W...
AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. DISORGANIZED
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W
AND 140W.
...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS FLATTENED THE RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 27N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N119W WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE
EXTENDING ALONG 22N. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY
STABLE CONDITIONS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 115W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE PACIFIC N OF 4N W OF 95W. A WEAK
TROUGH SEPARATES THE CARIBBEAN AND MEXICO ANTICYCLONES.
SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRES
CENTER NEAR 29N133W TO 19N123W. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W. SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 7N-15N ALONG 130W. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.
$$
MT
000
ACPN50 PHFO 171345
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED SEP 17 2008
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
$$
BURKE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 171230
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 19W/20W S OF
19N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED E OF
25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
21W-24W.
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
W 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PREDOMINATELY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 35W-45W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 64W S OF 21N
MOVING W 10 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMMS
DEPICTS ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE JUST EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS LOCATED NEAR 22N63W MOVING IN TANDEM
WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E
OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 55W-59W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 81W S OF
20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-16N
BETWEEN 70W-78W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 92W S OF 21N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 8N30W 10N55W 10N62W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 49W-52W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 30N81W 27N84W 24N92W 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 94W-97W. 10-15 NLY
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 22N98W...WHICH DOMINATES
THE W GULF W OF 90W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA E
OF 90W. EXPECT... LIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS
THE FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO...EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER
HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 17N66W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A
1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N62W, A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE SRN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1024
MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N43W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N62W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT
31N63W...30N55W...AND AT 25N42W. A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N46W. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 171210
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2008
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA DESARROLLO DE CICLON TROPICAL EN EL AREA DURANTE LAS
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 171157
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171153
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170906
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED SEP 17 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 02N ALONG 81W INTO PANAMA MOVING W 10 KT.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS E OF THE WAVE S OF THE
ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 04N ALONG 92W MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE IS S OF THE ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N TO 16N ALONG 115W MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 9N84W TO 11N110W TO 12N130W TO
10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
83W-95W.
...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA HAS FLATTENED THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
AREA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO
28N140W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
22N119W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 22N...WITH ANOTHER
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
22N99W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE CONDITIONS COVER THE
AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE
ITCZ W OF 100W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE PACIFIC N OF 4N W OF 95W. A WEAK
TROUGH SEPARATES THE CARIBBEAN AND MEXICO ANTICYCLONES.
SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRES
CENTER NEAR 29N133W TO 19N123W. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W. SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 7N-15N ALONG 130W. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.
$$
DGS
000
ACPN50 PHFO 170745
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST TUE SEP 16 2008
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
$$
BURKE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 170608
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 18W S OF 19N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED E OF
24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
15W-18W.
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PREDOMINATELY ALONG
THE ITCZ FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 32W-42W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W/63W S
OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMMS DEPICTS ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE JUST
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS LOCATED NEAR
21N62W MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 79W S OF
20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 71W-78W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W S OF 21N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N40W 10N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
21W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 46W-56W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
30N82W 26N86W 24N93W 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 94W-97W. 10-15 NLY WINDS ARE N
OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 22N98W...WHICH DOMINATES THE W GULF
W OF 90W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA E OF 90W.
EXPECT... LIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...EXPECT
AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER
HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
17N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 17N66W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N61W 23N72W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 57W-60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT
31N63W...30N55W...AND AT 25N42W. A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N46W. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
ABNT20 KNHC 170551
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170550
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170322
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 17 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0145 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W N OF 05N INTO PANAMA IS MOVING W ABOUT
12 KT. CONVECTION IN THE PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN
MAINLY BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 81W AND 88W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MOVING W TOWARD THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THIS REGION.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 08N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IS MOVING
W ABOUT 12 KT. THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST W OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND E OF 94W AND NEAR THE S EDGE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF
05N.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 04N TO 16N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10
KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO WEAK WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 09N82W TO 10N98W TO 10N117W TO
12N126W TO 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN
BE FOUND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE COAST BETWEEN 85W AND 88W AND
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND
WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 91W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N W OF 105W...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NW WATERS
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE N PAC AS IT SETTLES
S OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NW SWELL FROM THIS COMPLEX IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS. WHILE THE APPROACH OF
THE DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RAISE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TO THE 1.25 INCH RANGE AS IT APPROACHES THE FAR NW WATERS
THU...CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH VERTICAL LIFT EXPECTED TO
BE INHIBITED OVER THE REGION. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 105W WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 22N
IS STRETCHED FROM THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER AT 22N115W TO THE MORE
DOMINATE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 22N98W WITH THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT S TOWARD 20N AS THESE ANTICYCLONES
MERGE. ON THE S EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...EASTERLY FLOW TO 40 KT
DOMINATES THE FLOW REGIME...INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ...WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 129W...AND WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W WHERE LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE IS PLENTIFUL.
S OF 20N E OF 105W...
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS EVENING E OF 92W WHERE
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRIMARILY DIFFLUENT ON THE SW SIDE OF
THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. THIS ANTICYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO BE ENGULFED INTO THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 22N98W. ELSEWHERE...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING S
THROUGH MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO COUPLED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W HAS TRIGGERED 20 TO 25 KT
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUSTAINED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...SW SWELL FROM
THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HAS ELEVATED SEAS TO 10 FT S OF 13N
BETWEEN 92W AND 122W. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
$$
SCHAUER CLARK
000
ACPN50 PHFO 170145
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE SEP 16 2008
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
DONALDSON
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