Tropical Depression FIVE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052008
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING IN
DETERMINING ITS POSITION AND TRACK.  A 0108Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND
NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED A MUCH FARTHER WEST POSITION
THAN HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE QUIKSCAT PASS
AND A SUBSEQUENT ASCAT PASS WERE AMBIGUOUS AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED
CIRCULATION CENTER EXISTS CURRENTLY.  THE INTENSITY HAS PERHAPS
BEEN MORE READILY ASSESSED AS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND BOTH
SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGEST WINDS REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM
FORCE.  NO CHANGE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INDICATED.
 
ASSUMING THAT A CLOSED CENTER EXISTS IN THE CYCLONE...A ROUGH MOTION
VECTOR OF 300/8 IS ANALYZED. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE BRINGS THE CYCLONE CLOSE TO
THE MEXICAN COAST WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
JUST SKIRTS THE COAST...WHILE OTHERS DISSIPATE THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND AND ADVECT
A MID-LEVEL VORTEX OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS
PROBLEMATIC... HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE LARGE RELOCATION THAT WAS
NEEDED EARLIER. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEND BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AS A WEAKENING SYSTEM.

THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY IS OVER WARM WATERS AND HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
BUT IS BEING IMPACTED BY RATHER STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHEAR
SHOULD CONTINUE MAKING MORE THAN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
UNLIKELY.  THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
GFDL MODELS...WHICH SPIN THE CYCLONE UP TO A 50 KT TROPICAL STORM...
AND THE HWRF AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH DO NOT INTENSIFY IT.  BY DAYS
4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER WATERS
OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 15.7N 102.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.4N 103.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.3N 103.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.4N 104.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 19.3N 105.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 21.0N 108.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N 111.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     11/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB
 
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