Hurricane GENEVIEVE

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HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2008

A 1130 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
GENEVIEVE IS NOW BENEATH THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER AND THAT A BANDED
EYE HAD FORMED.  DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 4.0...65
KT...FROM BOTH AGENCIES AND THUS GENEVIEVE IS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS...THE FOURTH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON.  THIS FORMATION IS ABOUT TWO WEEKS AHEAD OF THE
MEAN FOURTH HURRICANE DATE OF 10 AUGUST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
AND 2008 ALREADY HAS HAD AS MANY HURRICANES AS THE ENTIRE 2007
SEASON.

IT IS PROBABLE THAT GENEVIEVE WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY TODAY AS IT IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT WIND SHEAR AND WARM WATER.  HOWEVER...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY
TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE EAST.  THESE CLOUDS HERALD AN
INCREASE IN EASTERLY WIND SHEAR STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  IN COMBINATION WITH DECREASING SSTS...THESE EFFECTS SHOULD
CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING OF GENEVIEVE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SHIFTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT CHANGES...
AND THEN IS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.   

THE MOTION OF GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO HAVE ACCELERATED AND IS NOW
ESTIMATED AT 285/10.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT ABOUT 11 KT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RIDES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. 
A TOWARD TOWARDS THE WEST IS PROBABLE AROUND THREE DAYS DUE TO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW CIRCULATION AND STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES ONLY A SMALL
NORTHWARD CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST SOUTH OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.    
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 16.4N 115.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.8N 117.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.4N 119.6W    70 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.1N 121.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W    50 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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