Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE

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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2008
 
GENEVIEVE...SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...IS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE OVER
THE OPEN NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  DEEP CONVECTION COVERS ONLY A SMALL
REGION OVER THE CYCLONE AND REMAINS ASYMMETRIC IN ITS DISTRIBUTION. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DROPPED
SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL INDICATE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT. 
A 0905Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED WINDS OF 48 KT FROM THE CIMSS
TECHNIQUE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AT 45 KT.

GENEVIEVE IS MOVING AT 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT...BASED UPON A BLEND OF
THE 12Z DVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES AND A 0936Z AMSR MICROWAVE PASS. 
THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF
THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  

THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MORE PROBLEMATIC.  THE CYCLONE IS OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...PERHAPS
ENHANCED BY THE CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
GENEVIEVE.  MOREOVER...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED PAST
THE REGION OF OCEAN COOLING INDUCED BY HURRICANE FAUSTO.  IN THE
SHORT-TERM...INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN AGREEMENT PRIMARILY
WITH THE GFDL MODEL.  FROM 48 HOURS ONWARD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEN ANTICIPATED
BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INTENSITY HAS A PEAK SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
PREDICTED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 15.3N 112.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 15.4N 114.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 15.6N 115.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 15.9N 117.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 16.4N 119.3W    50 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N 123.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 18.5N 127.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     29/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA
 
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