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Impact of business births and deaths in the payroll survey
Kirk Mueller
Supervisory Statistician, Division of Current Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
E-mail:
mueller.kirk@bls.gov
The
CES probability-based sample redesign accounts for most business birth employment through the
imputation of business deaths, with the remaining portion estimated by a net
birth/death model. This article discusses the
underlying assumptions of the model and the rationale behind them. It
also discusses the reasons why the total accounting for business births is
cyclically sensitive, in spite of the use of the forecast net birth/death
values. Lastly, it draws comparisons
between the bias adjustment model of the quota sample design and the net
birth/death model of the probability sample design.
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Nonfarm Payroll Statistics from the Current Employment Statistics (National)
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