Tropical Storm BORIS

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TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008
 
AS IT DID AROUND THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...BORIS IS SHOWING EVIDENCE OF
AN EYE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE 65 AND 55
KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE LATEST UW/CIMSS ADT WAS 57 KT...WHILE A
CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE AT 21Z WAS 76 KT...INDICATING THAT BORIS HAS A
STRONG UPPER WARM CORE SIGNATURE.  WHILE THE CONVECTION IS NOW
SHOWING EXCELLENT BANDING...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.

THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...BUT THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS NEAR 26C FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
CONSEQUENTLY...A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE HWRF NOW
MAINTAINS BORIS AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY
PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE AS RAPID A
DECLINE AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/11.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW THAN IT HAS BEEN...AS ONE BY ONE THE MODELS ARE GIVING UP ON A
TURN BACK TO THE EAST.  IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR HOW STRONG THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN THREE OR FOUR DAYS...BUT AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY DOMINATE
THE STEERING.  CONSEQUENTLY...A WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM
BAM...THE GFS...AND THE UKMET...AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 14.6N 123.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 14.5N 124.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 14.5N 127.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 14.5N 128.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 14.5N 130.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     06/0000Z 14.5N 134.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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