Tropical Storm CRISTINA

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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008
 
AFTER REACHING AN INTENSITY NEAR 45 KT LATE SATURDAY...CRISTINA HAS
WEAKENED.  ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR
STORM CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATES
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NEAR 40 KT AND THIS IS PROBABLY A
GENEROUS ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  CRISTINA IS FEELING
THE EFFECTS OF A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND IS APPROACHING MARGINAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY.  HOWEVER...IF 
DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REGENERATE SIGNIFICANTLY...CRISTINA MAY
LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THAT GIVEN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
STORM IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AT AROUND 8 KT.  THE TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD.  AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CRISTINA OR
ITS REMNANT SHOULD PRODUCE A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR JUST
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 14.6N 126.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 14.5N 128.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 14.4N 132.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 14.2N 134.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 14.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 14.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/0600Z 14.0N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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