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000 FXUS65 KTWC 041622 AFDTWC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 918 AM MST SAT OCT 4 2008 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TREND. && .DISCUSSION...SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BATCH OF CLOUDS JUST TO THE WEST. EXPECT THIS BATCH OF CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL REMAIN ON THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER DYNAMICS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS DID SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS AREAS FROM TUCSON EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED MOS POP VALUES VARIED A BIT BUT DID SUGGEST SOME TYPE OF CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE... CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS MOST PLACES TODAY. MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...CLOUDS BECOMING MAINLY BKN-OVC TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW SHRA/TSRA ACROSS ALL OF SE AZ ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z TODAY. SCT SHRA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SWLY 10-25 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS DURING THE 18Z-23Z PERIOD TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON