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000 FXUS65 KFGZ 042113 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 215 PM MST SAT OCT 4 2008 .SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES WITH STRONG WINDS...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ON MONDAY...THE STORM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE AREA. && .DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS NRN AZ WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. NLDN HAS NOT DETECTED ANY LIGHTNING YET BUT EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PCPN FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS WEAKLY FRONTOGENETIC AND IS LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH. RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA BOTH SHOW A BREAK IN CLOUDINESS AND PCPN BEHIND THIS BAND THAT IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS WRN AZ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS FOR A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN WITH SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...SECONDARY SYSTEM AND MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE. EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 9000 FEET EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE RISING AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY SINCE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SOME CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. BY MONDAY...RIDGING RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING...AMPLITUDE...AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT BKN-OVC040-060 WITH NUMEROUS -SHRA...ISOLD -TSRA...AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KOV7 TO KFLG OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS OVER YAVAPAI AND SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTIES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AS THE PACIFIC STORM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST. BY 12Z...NMRS -SHRA AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF KINW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC.........DB AVIATION.......BK VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.