Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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000 FXUS64 KMAF 151104 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 604 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2008 .DISCUSSION... SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... BACK EDGE OF RAINSHOWERS HAVE PROGRESSED EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD END THE BULK OF THE RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST TEXAS TERMINALS BY MIDDAY /17Z/. MVFR/IFR CLOUDINESS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2008/ DISCUSSION... MID LEVEL LOW IS CONTINUING TO TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN THIS LOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. REMAINS ACTIVE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM BBNP ALL THE UP TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ATTM...THERE ARE TWO DISTINCTIVE BANDS OF STRONGER SHOWERS. EASTERN BAND IS RUNNING ALONG THE NOW STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE LOWER TRANS PECOS/EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN/STOCKTON PLATEAU. THE SECONDARY BAND ALONG THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO REGION LOOKS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH. AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING LATE THIS EVENING. THICK CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL DAY TEMPERATUREWISE. EXPECTING HIGHS TO ONLY REACH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL CWA AND MID 70S DOWN SOUTH. CLEARING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH NEAR 70 IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVENT PUT IN FOG INTO THE ZONES YET...BUT MAY NEED TO FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE GROUND RELATIVELY SATURATED... LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS APPROACHING DEWPOINTS. WILL BE IN A ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH EJECTS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER ATTM WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CLIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A DEEPER TROUGH BUT WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OF THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD. HELD OFF ON THE ECMWF/S BULLISH PRECIP OUTPUT NEXT WEEK MAINLY DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCY. MEFFER HYDROLOGY... MOST OF THE FLOODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE HAS DIMINISHED. ATTM... BOQUILLAS AND PRESIDIO 7NW ARE THE ONLY LOCATIONS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND EACH ARE ELEVATED PRIMARILY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL RATHER THAN UPSTREAM RELEASES. THESE RISES LOOK TO BE MORE FLASHY IN NATURE AND SHOULD DROP RELATIVELY QUICKLY. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
