Issued by NWS
000 FXUS64 KEPZ 150908 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 308 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER WEST TEXAS BEHIND YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KEEP WINDS EASTERLY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS BROUGHT VERY DRY AIR OVER THE BORDERLAND SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AND WE SIT UNDER DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE AREA TO BE WITHIN A VERY DRY TAP AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE E BEHIND YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS STILL QUITE LOW WEST OF THE DIVIDE. LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS KEEPING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN 3/4 OF THE CWFA. WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEARED OUT TONIGHT AND DEWPOINTS STAYING UP EXPECT SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE...AS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CREATES A SATURATED GROUND LAYER. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE QUICK TO ERODE AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR TODAY EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY COOL AS EAST WINDS STAY OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR PCPN. WILL SEE A BIT OF LOW FAIR WX CU EAST HALF OF THE CWFA. ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA FOR THE S HALF OF HUDSPETH CO THERE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND A BOUNDARY LOCATED THERE. EXPECT THAT THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY BE S AND E OF THERE HOWEVER. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE... WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SE TO THE TX COAST. THIS ALLOWS A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. MON-TUE TIMEFRAME THE GFS MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE SW. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER THAT MOISTURE OVER OUR CWFA AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL RETURN. && .AVIATION...VALID 15/1200Z-16/1200Z LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING UNTIL 15Z OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FRANKLIN...ORGAN...SAN ANDRES MTN RANGES. ELSEWHERE AND AFTER 15Z EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME BUILDUPS TODAY AFT 18Z OVER SOUTHERN HUDSPETH WITH AN ISOLATED TS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ONLY EXPECTING FEW-SCT 050 IN FAIR WX CUMULUS. SEE LOCAL TAFS FOR SPECIFIC CONDITIONS AT ELP...LRU...DMN...TCS. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S EXITING TROUGH. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL OVERALL BECOME DRIER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WHO DID NOT BENEFIT FROM THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TUESDAY. NEXT WEEKEND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW SET IN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH MODERATE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE HAVE TO BELIEVE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE UP FOR MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 71 50 76 54 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 68 49 68 48 75 / 20 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 72 47 74 51 81 / 10 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 66 45 72 49 78 / 10 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 52 25 49 35 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 45 73 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 67 40 70 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 70 47 74 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 77 47 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 14/BIRD
