BTS Indicators Report Finds Airline Freight Revenues Rising while Passenger Revenues Drop

Contact BTS 25-02 Roger Lotz 202-366-2246

Tuesday, October 1, 2002 -- The U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) today released its monthly Transportation Indicators report showing that large U.S. air carriers posted an 8 percent rise in inflation-adjusted freight revenue from the second quarter of last year. Contributing to this upturn in freight revenue was an increase of 4 percentage points in the revenue load factor for freight carried on international flights. This increased revenue load factors for freight to 48 percent in June 2002.

This positive financial news for aviation came amidst otherwise negative second quarter results. Freight numbers did not offset the negative results for passenger and other revenues. The $0.3 billion increase (current dollars) in freight revenues was accompanied by a $3.9 billion decrease in passenger revenues. The overall decline in operating revenues of $4 billion also overwhelmed the $3.3 billion reduction in operating expenses.

The BTS Transportation Indicators report is a monthly update of critical transportation information that details the impact of transportation on the nation's economy and society.

Transportation Indicators provides information on more than 300 trends in the areas of safety, mobility, economic growth, the human and natural environment, and national security. The monthly report, which is available at www.bts.gov, provides information to address specific transportation issues and to assist in the effort led by BTS to make transportation information more accurate, reliable and timely. Updated reports will be available on the BTS website at the end of every month.

Other trends highlighted in this month's report are:

• There was a 6 percent decline in the real return on assets for large U.S. air carriers over the four quarters ending June 2002. The real return on assets reached the lowest value in the 10 years tracked by this report.
• Domestic unit prices of jet fuel for scheduled airlines in July 2002 were down 9 percent compared to the previous July, while jet fuel prices for nonscheduled airlines were down 7 percent.
• Amtrak ridership reached its highest level in July 2002 since August of last year with nearly 2.1 million passengers. However, ridership was still down 2 percent compared to July 2001.
• U.S. rail intermodal (trailers and containers) traffic was up nearly 8 percent for the week ending September 7 (week 36) compared to the same week last year. Canadian intermodal rail traffic increased 26 percent when the same two weeks are compared.
• Railroad labor productivity (in train-miles/employee hour) was up 10 percent in June 2002 compared to June of last year- the highest level in the last 10 years tracked by this report.
• Vehicle miles traveled were up nearly 2 percent in June 2002 compared to June 2001.
• Sales of light trucks (including pick-up trucks, SUVs, vans and minivans) increased 21 percent in August 2002 compared to August 2001. Car sales also increased by 14 percent in the same time period.
• Highway-rail fatalities were down 16 percent in June 2002 compared to June 2001 and rail accidents and incidents were down 11 percent.
• Vessels detained due to safety concerns declined 21 percent in August 2002 compared to August of last year.
• Piracy and armed robbery against ships increased 16 percent in July 2002 compared to July of last year. Incidents in the South China Sea were up 18 percent, while incidents in West and East Africa and the Malacca Strait declined. Incidents in the Indian Ocean more than doubled.
• Tonnage of food and farm products transported on the U.S. inland waterways declined 17 percent in August 2002 compared to August 2001.
• Manufacturers' new orders for transportation equipment were up 21 percent in July 2002 from the previous month, seasonally adjusted- the highest level for any July tracked over the 10 years covered by this report.

Continual updating of information on trends will help in developing forecasts for the future, both within the department and outside. The monthly report will also help transportation decision-makers spot changes that might require rapid action.