000
ACUS02 KWNS 041702
SWODY2
SPC AC 041700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FAR ERN NM...WRN
TX AND WRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD WILL BE
INTENSE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL ASSUME AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE TRANSLATING EWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.  THE
STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
FOCUSED FROM NM EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE.  IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A LEE CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER ERN CO BEFORE
DEVELOPING EWD INTO CNTRL KS.  AN ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH
EWD FROM NM INTO WRN TX BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO
WRN OK BY MONDAY MORNING.

...SRN PLAINS...

STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE NWD
ADVECTION OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S TO PERHAPS
LOWER 60S.  HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY
IN THE DAY MAY TEMPER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE REMAINING
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.  NONETHELESS...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FROM ERN NM INTO WRN TX.

AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT REGION OF
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN BACKING SFC-850 MB WIND FIELDS
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT WITH WIND PROFILES BECOMING
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN EVOLVING LARGER-SCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  WHILE A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS
THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED...MULTI-MODAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. 
THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO NWRN TX AND WRN OK SUNDAY NIGHT.

..MEAD.. 10/04/2008