000
ACUS01 KWNS 042000
SWODY1
SPC AC 041957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MO VALLEY INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL LA NWWD THROUGH WRN PARTS OF
OK/KS AS OF 18Z WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
OWING TO LEE TROUGHING/CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  PLANAR
VAD DATA IN THE 1-1.5 KM LAYER INDICATE THAT WIND FIELDS ARE BACKING
IN RESPONSE TO THIS CYCLOGENESIS WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE NWD RETURN
OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS /PER CURRENT GOES SOUNDER/GPS IPW
DATA/.  THE NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY LLJ WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE
THIS PROCESS BENEATH EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WITH MUCAPE
INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT TO
THE N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF LLJ WHERE
CONVERGENCE/WAA WILL BE FOCUSED.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP
EWD/NEWD WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO THE DIURNAL VEERING OF THE LLJ. 
SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST CLOUD-BEARING
SHEAR.

..MEAD.. 10/04/2008