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Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
2100 UTC MON JUL 21 2008
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 2 8 17 31 X
TROP DEPRESSION X 3 13 30 32 34 X
TROPICAL STORM 71 64 72 54 44 31 X
HURRICANE 29 33 13 7 8 4 X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 28 30 12 6 7 4 X
HUR CAT 2 X 3 2 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60KT 60KT 50KT 40KT 35KT 25KT 0KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X 3( 3) 45(48) 9(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 15(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MONCTON NB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST JOHN NB 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
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